Big 12 football: BYU leads our post-spring power rankings; Arizona faces tough climb

Projecting the Big 12 football race is an exercise in futility mitigation. The level of parity in the conference, perhaps unprecedented in major college football — and certainly unmatched in the current era — creates express elevators in both directions.

We witnessed that last season when the team picked first, Utah, finished 13th and the team picked last, Arizona State, finished first.

Which teams will over-perform and underachieve in 2025?

Here is the Hotline’s updated look at the conference race, with each team’s position in our January forecast for comparative purposes.

1. BYU

A strong core of returnees, led by veteran quarterback Jake Retzlaff, forms the foundation of what should be another run at the College Football Playoff. The Cougars have trips to Texas Tech and Iowa State in the middle of what otherwise stands as a manageable conference schedule. And they won’t lack for motivation after the disrespect shown last season by the playoff selection committee. Previous: 1

2. Texas Tech

Perhaps only LSU possesses a better collection of incoming talent (via the transfer portal) than the Red Raiders, who lured 13 players with four-star rankings (according to the 247Sports database). And it’s not like they have immense ground to make up in the standings: Quarterback Behren Morton and Co. were 6-3 last season in conference play. The schedule is tricky, however, with trips to Tempe, Manhattan and Salt Lake City. Previous: 2

3. Iowa State

Within a parity-driven conference, the Cyclones are one of the few reliable entities: They typically exceed expectations and overperform their talent level. But on a relative basis, Iowa State will be loaded in 2025 with quarterback Rocco Becht and returning starters across the two-deep. The key to breaking through: Improving a run defense that ranked 110th nationally last year, allowing 188.4 yards per game. The opener, against Kansas State in Ireland, will provide plenty of clues. Previous: 4

4. Arizona State

Understandably, the Sun Devils will be a popular pick to repeat as conference champions with quarterback Sam Leavitt, receiver Jordyn Tyson and a slew of returning starters. That’s precisely why the Hotline has them fourth: Unpredictability is the way of the world in the Big 12. Also, ASU won’t have the element of surprise in its favor and must navigate expectations that did not exist last fall. Previous: 3

5. Utah

Our outlook for Utah is undoubtedly brighter than what exists elsewhere in the Big 12 prognosticating space. The Hotline envisions a highly-motivated Kyle Whittingham at the sunset of his career, backed by a more dynamic offense, first-rate playmaker (quarterback Devon Dampier, from New Mexico) and a reversion to the mean on injuries. Add Utah’s usually stout defense, and the Utes’ 2025 recovery could be as swift and intense as the 2024 regression. Previous: 5

6. Kansas State

There is no better reflection of the Big 12’s depth than Kansas State’s position here, for the Wildcats have the building blocks — and the schedule — needed to win the conference title. (They don’t play Arizona State or BYU.) We are usually a bit reticent to suggest the fate of any season depends entirely on one player, but that certainly appears the case in Manhattan. If junior quarterback Avery Johnson elevates his game on a weekly basis, the Wildcats will be difficult to deny. Previous: 6

7. Baylor

If you’re looking for a dark horse candidate in the Big 12 race, consider Baylor for the role. Coach Dave Aranda began last season on the hottest of seats and ended with eight wins and loads of momentum. The Bears miss Iowa State and BYU, host ASU, Utah and Kansas State — in other words: the road schedule is as soft as they come — and they possess one of the conference’s most potent offenses, with veteran quarterback Sawyer Robinson running the show. Previous: 9

8. TCU

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It’s easy to forget the Horned Frogs finished with a 6-3 mark in conference play — they vanished from the radar after a stunning early-season home loss to UCF and were not involved in the tiebreaker mayhem. The return of quarterback Josh Hoover gives TCU a reasonable chance to contend in 2025. But the Big 12’s schedule matrix did coach Sonny Dykes no favors whatsoever with trips to Arizona State, BYU and Kansas State. Previous: 10

9. Kansas

Few trajectories are more difficult to project, for the Jayhawks as are likely to contend for the conference title as they are to finish on the bottom tier of the standings. And that’s exactly our intent with their position here: We effectively split the difference and slotted them smack in the middle. In other words, the wild ride that was the 2024 season in Lawrence perfectly reflects the unpredictability awaiting KU this fall. Previous: 7

10. Colorado

Whether Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter wins the quarterback competition or CU turns to freshman Julian Lewis, the deterioration in production likely will be severe — this, for a program that has yet to field a viable offensive line in coach Deion Sanders’ two seasons and, therefore, has little in the way of a running game. If the defense backslides, as well, CU could finish far closer to the bottom of the standings than the top. Previous: 8

11. Houston

Looking for a sleeper? The Cougars just might qualify. No, we don’t envision them contending seriously for the conference title. But with expert coaches like Willie Fritz, Year 2 often provides proof of progress. Also helpful: The Cougars don’t play BYU, Kansas State or Iowa State. Previous: 11

12. Oklahoma State

We expect Oklahoma State to recover from its 2024 collapse, although not to the same degree as Utah. Desperate for help, coach Mike Gundy will rely on 40 transfers (per the 247Sports database) to power a turnaround. That’s an enormous number for any program that doesn’t undergo a coaching change. But if the newcomers cannot provide the expected impact, the Cowboys could be looking for a new coach next winter. Previous: 14

13. UCF

If the second Scott Frost era is half as successful as the first, the Knights will return to relevance sooner than later. But the circumstances are much different in 2025 than when Frost’s first tenure in Orlando played out nearly a decade ago. For one thing, the competition in the Big 12 is an order of magnitude more difficult than what he faced in the American. Previous: 15

14. West Virginia

Rich Rodriguez returns to his alma mater to revitalize the program he led to prominence two decades ago. The man can scheme plays as well as anyone, but we aren’t convinced a breakthrough awaits in Year 1 — not with more than 50 transfers and a schedule that includes ASU, Texas Tech and BYU. Previous: 12

15. Arizona

The hottest seat in the Big 12 resides in Tucson, where Brent Brennan faces intense pressure to salvage his tenure but seemingly lacks the personnel to generate the desired results. The Wildcats need quarterback Noah Fifita to find his 2023 form, which won’t be easy without receiver Tetairoa McMillan. The staff changes, which include two new coordinators, should help. But incremental improvement won’t cut it. Arizona needs a massive turnaround to relieve the pressure on Brennan. Previous: 13

16. Cincinnati

The Bearcats were not an easy pick for last place with quarterback Brendan Sorsby set to return. But their late-2024 nosedive, combined with the lack of high-level talent at the skill positions, makes coach Scott Satterfield’s team a likely candidate for the cellar. And if this projection becomes reality, a coaching change could follow in Cincinnati. Previous: 16