The two most head-shaking variables of Pac-12 sports are (1) rain-plagued Oregon State is the league’s ranking baseball school and (2) population-blessed USC isn’t a force in basketball.

Here’s what I mean by “USC isn’t a force in basketball.”

The Trojans have won just two league championships (1961 and 1985) since 1954.

Since 1985, they’ve finished in last place eight times, more than anyone except Washington State.

They’ve reached the Sweet 16 just twice since 1961.

They’ve produced just one Pac-12 player of the year, Harold Miner, 1992.

They average a bare 3,673 fans at Galen Center, a basketball facility superior to those at Cal, Stanford, ASU, WSU, Washington, Oregon State, Colorado and UCLA. Last season was worse: 3,247.

The one big-name coach USC hired in the last 30 years, Rick Majerus, quit five days after accepting the job.

That’s what I mean when saying USC isn’t a force in basketball.

Yet by bedtime Thursday night, the Trojans could move into a tie for first place in the Pac-12.

Predictably, few expect it to happen. I mean, do you?

For one of the few times — once? twice? — since Arizona joined the league in 1978, USC arrives at McKale Center with what some analysts would say is the superior roster. The Trojans have three potential all-conference players — freshman Onyeka Okongwu and seniors Nick Rakocevic and Jonah Mathews — and a freshman class that, on paper, ranks with any recruited by Sean Miller or Lute Olson.

Perhaps the nation’s top recruit in the class of 2020, 7-footer Evan Mobley, has agreed to play for the Trojans, who were wise enough to hire his father, Eric, as an assistant coach.

This isn’t 1954 any more. College basketball has changed, and so has USC.

For 40 years, we’ve been witness to the rise (and fall) of Pac-12 basketball programs at Stanford, Oregon State, ASU, Washington, UCLA, Cal and even Washington State. But this is the first time in more than a half-century that the Trojans seem to have a sustainable model for success.

In 1954, USC reached the Final Four. With UCLA’s John Wooden and his legacy in the way, USC didn’t get within dreaming distance of another Final Four until 2001 — possibly the most heavily-stacked year in league history. That ’SC team included David Bluthenthal, Sam Clancy and Brian Scalabrine, stunning Kentucky in the Sweet 16 and playing Duke to the wire with the Final Four at stake.

And then it all came apart.

Trojans athletic director Mike Garrett fired dour head coach Henry Bibby early in the 2004 season, comparing him to a clunker, saying “it’s almost like a car you want to turn in before it breaks down on you.”

Garrett’s grand plan was to hire Majerus, giving him time to load up for the 2006 opening of the $75 million Galen Center and putting USC on the basketball map.

Success was fleeting. The man Garrett ultimately hired, Tim Floyd, soon parted ways with the school after his franchise recruit, NBA lottery pick O.J. Mayo, left school amid accusations of recruiting irregularities. After drawing an average of about 8,500 fans to the new arena under Floyd, the Trojans hired disagreeable Kevin O’Neill, an older-than-old-school coach who played a put-you-asleep offense that emptied the new arena and failed to appeal to top recruits.

By the time O’Neill was fired, attendance plunged to 3,970 per game and the Trojans finished in last place in 2012, 2014 and 2015.

In 2013, the USC school newspaper interviewed Bluthenthal, hero of the ’01 Elite Eight club, and asked if there was any hope for USC basketball.

“It’s got all the resources,” he told The Daily Trojan. “It’s got the Galen Center. It’s got uniforms. It’s got all the athletic equipment you need. It’s got the weight room. It’s got the shooting machine. It’s got all the managers you need. It’s got training tables. It’s got everything an athlete needs to be at the top of his game. So for me, USC should be a postseason school every year.”

Bluthenthal didn’t say anything about winning a Pac-12 championship, but coach Andy Enfield has recruited so well that it’s not unfathomable to imagine Commissioner Larry Scott handing a big trophy to Enfield next month in Las Vegas.

Plus, it’s about time USC was blessed by the basketball gods.

The Bibby-Majerus-Floyd fiasco cost the school what appeared to be a run for the big trophy, which set up perfectly after Lute Olson and Mike Montgomery left the league. It was the third time USC’s basketball program went flat just as it appeared to be rising to power.

In the 1980s, Stan Morrison coached the Trojans to the 1985 title. Morrison then recruited one of the top West Coast classes in post-Wooden days, getting Hank Gathers, Bo Kimble and mega-prospect Tom Lewis.

But Morrison’s strict, my-way-or-the-highway style blew up in his face. All three transferred after one season. Morrison was fired.

In the 1990s, George Raveling, who had produced success at Washington State and Iowa, put USC on a track for a breakthrough. The ’92 Trojans were exceptional, finishing with the school’s best-ever league record, 15-3, earning a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Raveling was a personality, a strong recruiter in the prime of his career. But on the way to the office in the fall of ’94, Raveling was involved in a near-fatal car wreck. His injuries were such that he resigned as the season began.

Now, a quarter-century later, the Trojans have gathered momentum. If they can beat Arizona at McKale and win their five remaining home games, they should go to the last week of the regular season with their best chance to win the league championship since 1985.

Predictably, few expect it to happen. I mean, do you?


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Contact sports columnist Greg Hansen at 520-573-4362 or ghansen@tucson.com.