SALT LAKE CITY โ
Itโs not St. Maryโs. Itโs Saint Maryโs. Thatโs because the Gaels take so long on every possession that you have time to doodle, dawdle and add three letters to their official identification.
Twice this season the Gaels won games in which they ran a mere 51 possessions. Thatโs not slow. Thatโs a glacier melting.
In the agonizing Elite Eight overtime loss to Wisconsin in 2014, Arizona had just 55 possessions, its lowest total in a game in the last 15 years.
Saint Maryโs averages 59 possessions per game, which is 350th of 351 Division I teams. Or, if you prefer, No. 2 of all the clock-killers.
But thereโs a method to coach Randy Bennettโs basketball madness. If you kill the clock, if you play smart with a minimum of mistakes, you might kill a basketball giant.
No one appears to be more impressed with Saint Maryโs than the master of basketball math, Ken Pomeroy, the Ace of Algorithms, whose data processing lists the Gaels as a 2.4-point favorite over Arizona in Saturdayโs NCAA Tournament game.
Kenpom.com gives Arizona just a 46 percent chance to beat the Gaels. This data has triggered a nervous tic among many Tucsonans, whose superstition/karma quotient each March defies sanity.
Saturdayโs game is Salt Lake Cityโs Tortoise vs. the Hare clash of styles. Sean Millerโs Wildcats have increased their tempo, reaching 70 or more possessions in their last four games. That might not sound like much, but Millerโs Arizona teams have never put together five straight games of 70-plus possessions, and the UA hasnโt done so since Lute Olson coached in 2005.
No one knows more about this convergence of wills than Gonzaga coach Mark Few, who on Friday described his conference rivalsโ sometimes-painful approach to the game as โa Ph.D. in ball-screen execution.โ
In the modern era of college basketball, metrics wizโs such as Pomeroy have become so valued that he estimates about 300 schools employ his numbers in their scouting system.
โHow many of those actually use it in a meaningful way is another story,โ he told me Friday.
One program that uses Kenpom.com diligently is Arizona. UA assistant director of basketball operations Austin Carroll knows those numbers the way he learned his multiplication tables in the third grade.
โKenpom is the statistical bible,โ he said Friday.
Carrollโs knowledge of the Gaels goes far beyond pace of play. He knew, without prompt, that SMC is No. 1 in the nation in defensive rebounding, at 21.6 per game.
โThey are 22-0 when they out-rebound you,โ he said. โKenpom is usually the first source I track.โ
Carroll is responsible for the organization, breakdown and presentation of Arizonaโs scouting operation. And itโs likely no one in the UA system has learned more about a team like Saint Maryโs than Carroll.
While a senior forward at American University in 2014, Carroll was part of an NCAA Tournament team that, gulp, was matched against mighty Wisconsin in a first-round game.
American scored 35 points. Itโs offensive efficiency was 59/100ths of a point per possession, the lowest in the NCAA Tournament that season, and close to a record. Wisconsin, as Arizona fans canโt forget, was such a clock-killer in the Bo Ryan years that it led the NCAA in fewest possessions in 2011 and 2012.
Those Wisconsin teams that eliminated Arizona in 2014 and 2015 averaged 21 seconds per possession, and ranked 342nd and 350th in pace of play.
Saint Maryโs averages 20.6 seconds per possession. Thatโs Wisconsin-esque.
Of course, there doesnโt seem to be a Sam Dekker or a Frank Kaminsky on the Saint Maryโs roster, which often makes the metrics no more meaningful than yesterdayโs price of lettuce.
The reason Pomeroy values the Gaels is because their defensive efficiency matches their offense. Thatโs why his system ranks Saint Maryโs No. 14 overall. Arizona is No. 19. But itโs so close itโs ridiculous.
Arizona averages 1.18 points per possession, Saint Maryโs 1.19.
Arizona limits opponents to 0.95 points per possession, Saint Maryโs 0.94.
Sometimes you can get cross-eyed studying the numbers. Whatever happened to the old-fashioned gut feeling? Thereโs a vast difference between assembling those numbers in the Pac-12 versus the West Coast Conference.
To some, Saint Maryโs doesnโt always pass the โeye test.โ Thatโs where Carroll and Kenpom step in.
โThereโs something to be said for going with your gut, but knowledge helps,โ Pomeroy told Sports on Earth this week. โAnalytics can help a little bit, too. The bottom line is, you have to have fun with it. Donโt take it too seriously, or you can make the whole tournament not as watchable.โ
If there are any flaws in Pomeroyโs work, itโs that his data doesnโt include the extended absence of Allonzo Trier and he doesnโt mess with the โquality lossโ and โbad lossโ component. He leaves that to the suits in the NCAA.
But partly because of his work, Arizona wonโt enter Saturdayโs game with any feeling of entitlement.
โSaint Maryโs believes in their system,โ Miller said Friday. โThey believe in their coach. They believe in each other. Theyโre a team. They donโt beat themselves.โ
First one to 60 wins, right?
