The Arizona football team takes a five-game winning streak into the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl against SMU.
The Wildcats (9-3) are seeking their fifth 10-plus-win season in program history.
Noah Fifita’s 26 touchdown passes are tied for fifth most in UA annals.
There’s nothing we like more at “Cats Stats” HQ than a pattern. So, for our final edition of the 2025-26 season, we present five key statistical matchups that will determine the outcome of Friday’s Holiday Bowl at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego:
SMU pass O vs. UA pass D
This is the headliner.
Led by quarterback Kevin Jennings — who’s similar to Fifita in many regards — the Mustangs ranked 12th nationally in passing yards per game (283.5) entering Tuesday and Wednesday’s bowls.
Arizona’s pass defense has been phenomenal — and, recently, all but impregnable. The Wildcats were fourth in the country in passing yards allowed per game (155.9) entering this week.
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) throws a pass in the first half against TCU, Sept. 20, 2025, in Fort Worth, Texas.
Arizona has held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards, the longest active streak in FBS. The Wildcats have limited three opponents — Weber State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State — to fewer than 90 yards through the air.
Arizona also limits foes to a 53% completion rate (No. 5 nationally) and a 95.16 efficiency rating (No. 1). Opposing passers have a 9-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio against Danny Gonzales’ defense (or at least the pre-opt-out version of it; expect some news on that front on game day).
Under the direction of head coach Rhett Lashlee, SMU has thrown for at least 247 yards in 11 of 12 games. The Mustangs have thrown for 290-plus seven times.
The only time they struggled to get the pass game going came on Oct. 25 at Wake Forest. Jennings threw for a season-low 171 yards. That was the only game this season in which he didn’t throw a TD pass and snapped a streak of 15 consecutive games with at least one.
Give-and-take
No program in the country has been better at taking the ball away on a per-game basis than Arizona.
Arizona defensive back Jay'Vion Cole (8) and defensive back Gavin Hunter (23) celebrate Cole’s pick-six against Weber State in the third quarter, Sept. 6, 2025, in Tucson.
Entering this week, the only two teams within range of the Wildcats’ average turnover margin of plus-1.33 were College Football Playoff top-four seeds Texas Tech and Indiana (both plus-1.31).
Amazingly, Arizona has caused more turnovers (28) than it has allowed touchdowns (25) this season. The Wildcats capped the regular season with four takeaways at ASU. And, of course, turnovers were the story the last time Arizona played in a bowl game. The Wildcats took the ball away five times against Oklahoma in the 2023 Alamo Bowl, including Gunner Maldonado’s game-changing 87-yard fumble return.
SMU has excelled in the turnover department as well. The Mustangs have just one fewer takeaway (27) than the Wildcats. SMU’s turnover margin (plus-11) and average margin per game (plus-.92) are tied for eighth nationally.
Unsurprisingly, turnovers have had a huge impact on the Mustangs’ success (or failure) this season. They’re plus-10 in their eight wins, plus-1 in their four losses. Jennings has an 18-5 TD-INT ratio in wins, 8-5 in defeats.
Arizona running back Ismail Mahdi (21) gets knocked horizontal by an Arizona State defender on a run during the second quarter in their Territorial Cup game, Nov. 28, 2025, in Tempe.
UA rush O vs. SMU rush D
Arizona offensive coordinator Seth Doege leaned on the running game more during the final stretch of the regular season.
The Wildcats had more than 40 rushing attempts three times in 2025 — two of those coming in the final three games. Arizona averaged 40.3 rushing attempts in those three contests after averaging 34 in the first nine.
The Wildcats didn’t have a ton of success on the ground in the Territorial Cup, gaining just 88 net yards on 44 attempts. Even adjusting for sacks, kneel-downs and a nine-yard loss on a lateral, Arizona had just 113 yards on 40 carries.
Still, Doege showed a firmer commitment to the run game. And tailbacks Ismail Mahdi, Kedrick Reescano and Quincy Craig all had notable moments against Cincinnati, Baylor and ASU.
One of the strengths of SMU’s defense is stopping the run. The Mustangs allowed the 19th-fewest rushing yards per game (105.92) in the nation entering this week. They have allowed only five rushing touchdowns, tied with Indiana for the second fewest behind Ohio State (four).
Only two teams, Baylor and Miami (Fla.), rushed for more than 150 yards against SMU this season, and both needed 40-plus attempts to get there.
SMU has only 34 missed tackles in run defense this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Arizona has 71.
UA red-zone O vs. SMU red-zone D
Arizona has struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone at times this season — never more so than in the Territorial Cup.
The Wildcats reached the red zone a season-high-tying six times but scored only two TDs. Their season-long red-zone touchdown rate of 53.7% ranked 108th nationally entering this week.
SMU, meanwhile, ranks among the elite when it comes to keeping opponents out of the end zone. Entering this week, the Mustangs were tied for fourth in the country with an opponent red-zone TD rate of 38.64%. Two of the teams in front of them: Ohio State and Indiana.
Only two teams, TCU and Cal, had a TD rate of higher than 50% against SMU. The Mustangs lost both of those games.
Cincinnati's Logan Wilson (7) blocks a field-goal attempt by Arizona kicker Michael Salgado-Medina (19) during the first half, Nov. 15, 2025, in Cincinnati.
No offense wants to settle for field goals. In Arizona’s case, even that has been a shaky proposition this season.
Sophomore kicker Michael Salgado-Medina has made only 19 of 31 field-goal attempts, including 10 misses between 30 and 49 yards. Salgado-Medina was just 3 of 6 vs. ASU, with all three misses coming in the 40-49 range.
SMU pass rush vs. UA pass pro
The Mustangs are among the nation’s best at getting to the quarterback.
SMU ranked 17th in the country in sacks per game (2.83) entering this week. The Mustangs were tied for 23rd in total sacks (34).
Four SMU players have five-plus sacks: Isaiah Smith (8.5), Terry Webb (5.5), Cameron Robertson (5.0) and Jeffrey M’ba (5.0).
Smith and Robertson come off the edge, and they’ve split their time almost equally between the two sides. Smith has lined up on the left edge 349 times and the right edge 342, per PFF. Robertson’s left-right splits are 253/264.
SMU defensive tackle Terry Webb celebrates after sacking Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson in the second half, Oct. 11, 2025, in Dallas.
The UA tackles tasked with blocking the 6-foot-4 edge rushers are veteran Ty Buchanan and up-and-comer Matthew Lado.
Buchanan has played 733 snaps at left tackle, including 426 as a pass blocker. He has allowed 21 quarterback pressures and three sacks, per PFF.
Lado has played both left and right tackle, becoming the starter at the latter after Tristan Bounds suffered a season-ending leg injury Nov. 15 at Cincinnati. Lado, a redshirt freshman, has played 256 snaps, including 124 as a pass blocker. He has yielded five pressures and zero sacks, per PFF.
Overall, Arizona’s pass protection has been just OK. The Wildcats have allowed 2.5 sacks per game, tied for 109th nationally. Arizona yielded only one sack in each of the final two regular-season games.
