DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Despite a month of U.S.-led airstrikes, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels remain capable of launching significant attacks. This week, they seriously damaged a ship in a crucial strait and apparently downed an American drone worth tens of millions of dollars.
The continued assaults by the Houthis on shipping through the crucial Red Sea corridor — the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — against the backdrop of Israel's war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip underscore the challenges in trying to stop the guerrilla-style attacks they have used to hold onto Yemen's capital and much of the war-ravaged country's north since 2014.
Houthi supporters attend a rally Friday in Sanaa, Yemen, against the U.S.-led airstrikes on Yemen and in support of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Despite a month of U.S.-led airstrikes, Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels launched attacks seriously damaging a ship in the crucial Bab el-Mandeb Strait and apparently bringing down an American drone.
The campaign has boosted the rebels' standing in the Arab world, despite their human rights abuses in a yearslong stalemated war with several of America's allies in the region. Analysts warn that the longer the Houthis' attacks go on, the greater the risk that disruptions to international shipping will begin to weigh on the global economy.
On Monday, both the Houthis and Western officials acknowledged one of the most serious attacks on shipping launched by the rebels. The Houthis targeted the Belize-flagged bulk carrier Rubymar with two anti-ship ballistic missiles, and one struck the vessel, the U.S. military's Central Command said.
The Rubymar, which reported problems with its propulsion in November, apparently became inoperable, forcing her crew to abandon the vessel.
Houthi supporters attend a rally Friday in Sanaa, Yemen, against the U.S.-led strikes against Yemen and in the support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree claimed on Monday night that the Rubymar sank. However, satellite images from Planet Labs PBC analyzed by The Associated Press showed the Rubymar still afloat at 2 p.m. local time Tuesday just north of the Bab el-Mandeb. A large oil slick trailed the vessel.
The Rubymar attack marked one of a few direct, serious hits by the Houthi rebels on shipping. In late January, another direct hit set a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker ablaze for hours.
Meanwhile, the Houthis early Tuesday released footage of what they described as a surface-to-air missile bringing down a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone off the coast of Hodeida, a Yemeni port city they hold on the Red Sea. The footage included a video of men dragging pieces of debris from the water onto a beach.
Images of the debris, which included writing in English and what seemed to be electrical equipment, appeared to correspond to known pieces of the Reaper, usually used in attack missions and surveillance flights. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told journalists in a briefing the Houthis shot down the drone.
Houthi supporters attend a rally Friday in Sanaa, Yemen, against the U.S.-led strikes against Yemen and in the support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
In November, the Pentagon acknowledged the loss of an MQ-9, also shot down by the rebels over the Red Sea.
Since the Houthis seized the country’s north and its capital of Sanaa in 2014, the U.S. military has lost at least four drones to shootdowns by the rebels — in 2017, 2019 and this year.
Meanwhile, the Houthis claimed an attack on the Sea Champion, a Greek-flagged, U.S.-owned bulk carrier bound for Aden, Yemen, carrying grain from Argentina. Central Command said the carrier “has delivered humanitarian aid to Yemen 11 times in the past five years” as the country remains on the edge of famine amid the war there.
The rebels separately claimed an attack on the Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier Navis Fortuna, a ship that had been broadcasting its destination as Italy with an “all Chinese” crew to avoid being targeted. Private security firm Ambrey reported that the vessel sustained minor damage in a drone attack.
The U.S. shot down 10 bomb-carrying Houthi drones, as well as a cruise missile heading toward the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Laboon over the last day, Central Command said Tuesday. The U.S. military also conducted strikes targeting a Houthi surface-to-air missile launcher and a drone prior to its launch.
The Houthis acknowledged the drone attacks and claimed other assaults not immediately acknowledged by the West.
Since November, the rebels have repeatedly targeted ships in the Red Sea and surrounding waters over Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. They have frequently targeted vessels with tenuous or no clear links to Israel, imperiling shipping in a key route for trade among Asia, the Mideast and Europe. Those vessels have included at least one with cargo for Iran, the Houthis' main benefactor.
The European Union has launched its own campaign to protect shipping, with member France saying on Tuesday that it shot down two Houthi drones overnight in the Red Sea.
So far, no U.S. sailor or pilot has been wounded by the Houthis since America launched its airstrikes targeting the rebels in January. However, the U.S. continues to lose drones worth tens of millions of dollars and fire million-dollar cruise missiles to counter the Houthis, who are using far cheaper weapons that experts believe largely have been supplied by Iran.
Based on U.S. military statements, American and allied forces have destroyed at least 73 missiles of different types before they were launched, as well as 17 drones, 13 bomb-laden drone boats and one underwater explosive drone over their monthlong campaign, according to an AP tally. Those figures don't include the initial Jan. 11 joint U.S.-U.K. strikes that began the campaign. The American military also has shot down dozens of missiles and drones already airborne since November.
How Houthi attacks crimp global trade
Why are Houthis attacking ships?
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The Houthis are Iranian-backed rebels who seized most of northern Yemen and the country's capital of Sanaa in 2014. The following year, a Saudi-led coalition entered the conflict, seeking to restore Yemen's internationally recognized government to power.
The Houthis have sporadically targeted ships in the region, but the attacks have increased since the start of the Oct. 7 Israel-Hamas war. They have used drones and anti-ship missiles to attack vessels and in one case used a helicopter to board and seize an Israeli-owned ship and its crew.
They have threatened to attack any vessel they believe is either going to or coming from Israel. That's now escalated to apparently any vessel, with container ships and oil tankers flagged to countries like Norway and Liberia being attacked or drawing missile fire.
Above: The USS Mason, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, passes a dock in Norfolk, Va., April 8, 2021.
Why is the Red Sea important?
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The Red Sea has the Suez Canal at its northern end and the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end, leading into the Gulf of Aden. It's a busy waterway with ships traversing the Suez Canal to bring goods between Asia and Europe and beyond.
In fact, 40% of Asia-Europe trade normally goes through the area, including a huge amount of oil and diesel fuel for import-dependent Europe. So do food products like palm oil and grain and anything else brought over on container ships, which is most of the world’s manufactured products.
In all, about 30% of global container traffic and more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day typically head through the Suez Canal, according to global freight booking platform Freightos Group.
Above: Sea Viper missiles are prepared Jan. 10, 2024, to be fired in the Red Sea from the operation room of HMS Diamond.
How are Houthi attacks affecting trade?
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Huge shipping container companies, including Maersk, are avoiding the Red Sea and sending their ships around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope. That adds a week to two weeks to voyages and increases costs for for shipping, fuel and more.
At least 90% of the container ships that had been going through the Suez Canal are now rerouting around the tip of Africa, said Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research for Drewry, a maritime research consultancy.
The cost to ship a standard 40-foot container from China to northern Europe has jumped from $1,500 to $4,000, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany. But that is still far from the $14,000 seen during the pandemic.
The delays contributed to a 1.3% decline in world trade in December, reflecting goods stuck on ships rather than being offloaded in port.
“There will be initial shock and there will be possibly initial shortages of parts that will potentially slow up production,” Heaney said.
But “pretty soon,” the system “will adjust to the new reality of having to go around the Cape” and manufacturers have to prepare and plan for longer wait times, Heaney said.
He thinks the crisis is shaping up to last for months, but that shipping has more capacity — unlike during the pandemic — and lessons from that time mean companies have more inventory on hand. Plus, shipping costs are a tiny fraction of the value of items.
“Noticeable consequences for consumer prices in Europe are scarcely to be expected, since the share of freight costs in the value of high priced goods such as consumer electronics is a fraction of a percent,” said Julian Hinz, director of the Research Center Trade Policy at Kiel.
However, analysts at JP Morgan say that the cost increase could slow the recent decline in inflation: “While these cost increases are coming off low levels, they will reinforce the fading of recent deflationary dynamics for goods prices.”
Above: Sea Viper missiles are fired in the Red Sea on Jan. 10, 2024, seen from the bridge of HMS Diamond.
What does it mean for oil prices?
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Crude prices rose about 4% following the U.S.-led airstrikes. International benchmark Brent traded at around $78 per barrel Friday, still down from about $84 on the eve of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.
“While this puts upwards pressure on global oil prices, it is unlikely to represent a serious energy supply shock for now,” Simone Tagliapietra, an energy analyst at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, tweeted.
That could change if the Hamas-Israel and Houthi conflicts escalate and lead to trouble at the Strait of Hormuz at the southern end of the Persian Gulf, he said.
"That would have massive implications for global energy markets,” Tagliapietra said.
And White House spokesman Andrew Bates said, "We are monitoring conditions” on oil prices.
“Let me be very clear," Bates said. "It is the Houthis who have been endangering the freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most vital waterways.”
Above: A satellite image shows damage from airstrikes Jan. 12, 2024, on a radar site at Sanaa Airport in Yemen.
How is the world responding?
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The U.S. is leading a security initiative to protect ships in the Red Sea that includes United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. The Houthis have no navy to impose a cordon, relying on harassing fire and only one helicopter-borne assault so far.
Friday's strikes killed at least five Houthi troops and wounded six, the rebels said, without elaborating on what was targeted. It was unclear how extensive the damage from the U.S. strikes were, though the Houthis said at least five sites, including airfields, had been attacked.
Above: An RAF Typhoon aircraft takes off Jan. 11, 2024, from RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, for a mission to strike targets in Yemen. The U.S. and British militaries bombed more than a dozen sites used by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen the day before, in a massive retaliatory strike using warship- and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles and fighter jets.
