As Tucson climbs out of the housing marketβs βlost decade,β a lack of prepared land could pose a disruption to the boom the market saw last year.
During the housing crash, the Tucson metro area still absorbed more than 30,000 home lots, but the replacement rate did not keep up. Banks tightened lending for speculative developments and neither private developers nor homebuilders wanted to take the risk.
βWhat you have is a pressure-cooker situation in the Tucson metro area land market,β said Will White, a land broker with Land Advisors Organization. βWhat has ignited the fuse, and accelerated the situation, is that the market is improving and homebuilders are performing better than anticipated.β
Of the 77 active single-family communities in the metro area β discounting active adult β 37 have less than 30 lots available and 27 have between 31 and 75 lots.
βIf we donβt consistently supply the market with developed lots, there will be a ceiling to the amount of homes that can be produced,β White said. βThat would be a tough pill to swallow in a Tucson market that is showing more and more demand for new housing.β
Developed lots mean the land is fully titled and has infrastructure.
It takes three to four years to bring a raw parcel to the point of selling a home on it.
βThe 2016 residential market and local economic news caught the industry by surprise,β White said. βHomebuilders are now playing catch-up to build their lot inventory pipeline for the next two to three years.β
There were 2,697 single-family residential permits issued in 2016, a 24 percent increase over 2015.
Dean Wingert, vice president of Crown West Land Group, a land developer, said the increase in permits, combined with job announcements were what national homebuilders needed to see to spur more investment in the Tucson area.
βLast year finally showed some good, positive movement,β Wingert said. βHomebuilders all have direction to grow their division and we need to look well ahead.β
He said most homebuilders donβt want develop the land, they just want to build houses so theyβll look for land developing partners.
Land developers, meanwhile, donβt do speculative development because each homebuilder has different preferences on lot width and dimensions and land division of 100 lots cost more than $3 million.
βItβs hard to get financing for that speculative work, especially with the history Tucson has,β Wingert said.
Because most of the big homebuilders in the market are national companies, the authorization for land acquisition comes from a corporate office elsewhere.
βThereβs always this difficulty if youβre a buyer of land for a homebuilding company because you know you need to keep buying land and yet you canβt just move things too quickly,β Wingert said. βThe vast majority of homebuilding are companies that are not in Tucson and itβs hard for the local guy to get a meeting of the minds.β
Crown West is the land developer at Gladden Farms, where there are 1,400 single-family houses and more ongoing development with four different homebuilders.
White said the land crunch is actually good news for Tucson.
βThe demand for land is higher than we have seen it in some time,β he said. βHigh demand versus limited and shrinking land supply will favor the landowner in Tucson for some time.
βThe great news is that Tucson has rebounded well and the future looks very bright.β