Whether it’s Khalil Tate or Rhett Rodriguez at quarterback, the Arizona Wildcats aren’t completing passes at a high enough rate.
Arizona’s completion percentage of 53.3 ranks last in the Pac-12 and 112th in the nation. Only one other Pac-12 school is under 60 percent: USC, whose starting quarterback, JT Daniels, is a true freshman. Only six Power conference schools rank below Arizona in completion percentage.
A year ago, with Tate taking the majority of the snaps, Arizona completed 62 percent of its passes. Even the much-criticized Brandon Dawkins came in at 61.4.
What’s behind the drop? How has it impacted the UA offense? What needs to change?
Before we attempt to answer those questions, let’s take a closer look at the numbers to put them in the proper perspective.
As mentioned, Arizona’s completion percentage is way down from last year. It’s also well below the current nationwide mark, which is 60.3.
The trend toward spreading the field has produced a rise in completion rate. In 2003, the national average was 56.8. In 2008, it was 59.0. In 2013, it was 59.7. Now it’s north of 60.
Arizona’s mark of 53.3 percent is more than 10 points below the rest of the conference — 63.9 — if you take the Wildcats out of the equation. Should it hold, the figure would represent their second-lowest percentage over the past seven seasons.
In six years under Rich Rodriguez, Arizona was over 60 percent three times and under 60 three times. Last year represented the high-water mark. The previous season — an injury-plagued, 3-9 nightmare — was the low point. A collection of quarterbacks, including a 17-year-old Tate and converted tight end Matt Morin, completed just 51.3 percent of their passes.
Things changed last season when opponents became consumed with stopping Tate’s running. With eight (or more) defenders crowding the line of scrimmage, Arizona’s receivers frequently faced one-on-one coverage. Sometimes it was one-on-none. Tate completed 62.0 percent of his throws.
Even after defenses supposedly figured him out, Tate’s completion rate was higher than this year’s 53.4 percent. Over the final five games of 2017, starting with USC, Tate completed 58.0 percent of his throws. In the last two, against Arizona State and Purdue, he was at 71.8.
What’s happened since?
Here are some of the biggest factors and theories: