South Jersey still in forecasted path of Hurricane Isaias
South Jersey continues to be in the National Hurricane Center's forecast track cone for Hurricane Isaias, which strengthened from a tropical storm in the 11 p.m. Thursday update.
Impacts to New Jersey, if any, will be centered around Tuesday.
There is no need to act yet. However, to help you prepare, here is what to know about the storm, which continues the record setting pace of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season.
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Where is Isaias now? Where is the forecasted path?
Updated
New Jersey remains in the forecast cone. Options from a graze up the coast to an inland track near the Delaware River are possible. Tropical storm warnings extend from Boston, down the I-95 corridor to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
As of 3 p.m., the National Weather Service Hazards for the Northeast. Tropical storm warnings are in dark red.
It is important to note that the heaviest rain will be to the west of Isaias' center. Meanwhile, the strongest winds will be to the east.
How do you say Isaías?
Updated"Isaías" is the Spanish and Portuguese word for the biblical Isaiah. It is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs.
The "I" storm in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season name is Isaias, the Spanish word for the name Isaiah. Denise Arrigo, Adjunct Professor at Cumberland County College and formed Spanish Teacher at Millville Senior High School, explains how to pronounce the word.
New Jersey is in the forecast cone
UpdatedIsaias joins Tropical Storm Fay, which made landfall just south of Long Beach Island on July 10, as the two storms put the region in the forecast cone.
The cone represents a two-thirds probability of where the center of the low pressure center is.
The storm will slip through a weakness in a large high pressure system, which expands from the Gulf of Mexico into much of the Atlantic Ocean.
This map shows the steering patterns of the atmosphere between the 300 to 850 millibar level, between about 30,000 and 5,000 feet high. Isaias will slip through the weakness in the clockwise spinning high pressure system off the coast of Florida.
One it reaches Georgia, the steering patterns sharply moves west to east. While the storm won't curve immediately out to sea, there will be a turn to the northeast as it moves north, hence why New Jersey is in the forecast cone.
Forecast model guidance continues to narrow. A landfall will be possible, or can a pass two to three hundred miles out to sea.
The model track guidance for Tropical Storm Iasias, as of 8 a.m. Friday.
There are three scenarios at play
UpdatedThere are three options at play. However, it will not be until Saturday when they can be narrowed down. If the storm makes landfall before reaching New Jersey, that will weaken the storm, and vice versa. The first two scenarios are favored, with the third one looking less and less likely.
Option 1:
The European model from Wednesday night is a good representation of what scenario 1 would look like. The center of the storm is well out to sea.
Isaias stays 200 to 300 miles out to sea, passing between late Monday and Tuesday.
Spotty, but heavy, rain bands will pass. Winds would be gusty, but likely would not be enough to bring damage.
The real concerns would be out on the water. Given the full moon Monday and the onshore winds. Multiple rounds of minor or moderate coastal flooding would be likely. High seas would be present, with dangerous rip currents, too. During Tropical Storm Fay, a teenage lost his life in Ventnor while swimming with two friends the evening of the storm. In Ocean City, two 18-year-old girls were brought to shore by city police the following morning.
A heat wave that drives you to the shore, warm water temperature that draws you to the surf and a yellow flag “for moderate rip currents” that hints at danger, but doesn’t prevent you from swimming: These conditions can prove to be a dangerous, even deadly combination, according to research by the National Weather Service.
Option 2:
The storm hugs the Jersey Shore. While the western side of the storm is usually the safer side, since the winds around the counter-clockwise spinning system goes against the northerly direction of the storm's movement, worse impacts than option 1 are possible.
Flooding rain, damaging winds at the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents and high seas will all be likely.
This being said, a track coast to the close would likely mean land interaction with North Carolina. If that happens, the storm would weaken. This could mean the difference between a strong tropical storm and weak, less organized one.
The Global Forecast System, American, model paints this picture. Though, note that the exact track of the storm should not be paid attention to. Rather, note how organized the storm is.
The GFS, American model, paints tropical storm force sustained winds at the shore Tuesday morning. Emergency personnel will not respond to a 9-1-1 call when winds are above tropical storm force.
Option 3:
Isaias makes landfall in Florida or the Southeastern United States and the center of the storm passes to the west of the state. That is illustrated on the western edge of the forecast cone.
The storm would likely be a remnants storm by then, or perhaps a Tropical Depression. However, flooding rains, some coastal flooding, dangerous seas, rip currents and high surf would be likely.
The Canadian weather forecast model from the Thursday night model run. Note the center of the storm is inland and would likely be a remnant storm, or a tropical depression by then.
When will we have a good idea on what the exact impacts will be?
UpdatedSaturday.
By then, the storm will be near Florida. In the weakness of the large, Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic Ocean high pressure system, there will be a better idea on how the steering currents will move the storm.
Tropical Storm watches may go up Saturday night or Sunday morning, 48 hours before tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) winds arrive.
For more context on Isaías and the 2020 hurricane season
UpdatedThe Press of Atlantic City's Hurricane section of the Weather Center has the information you need to know to protect yourself and learn more about tropical systems in South Jersey.
Ten tropical storms and hurricanes have made landfall in South Jersey since 1900. Here's the list, newly updated with Tropical Storm Fay, which made landfall July 10. As long as the storm makes landfall in New Jersey, it will be the first time with two storms making landfall within the same year.
Making landfall on the Delaware Bay side of Cape May County on the morning of August 21, 1971, Doria was responsible for an F-2 tornado, with winds over 100 mph, near Cape May .
According to the Weather Prediction Center, 3 to 7 inches of rain fell in most of the region.
An active 2020 hurricane season was predicted by Colorado State University. With Isaias, 2020 continues its record breaking pace to hurricane season, beating out the historic 2005 year.
As featured on
Superstorm Sandy brought thousands of people to county evacuation shelters at the Jersey Shore in 2012.
