LONDON (AP) — War has been a catastrophe for Ukraine and a crisis for the globe. The world is a more unstable and fearful place since Russia invaded its neighbor on Feb. 24, 2022.
One year on, thousands of Ukrainian civilians are dead, and countless buildings have been destroyed. Tens of thousands of troops have been killed or seriously wounded on each side. Beyond Ukraine’s borders, the invasion shattered European security, redrew nations’ relations with one another and frayed a tightly woven global economy.
5 ways war in Ukraine has changed the world
1. The return of European war
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Three months before the invasion, then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson scoffed at suggestions that the British army needed more heavy weapons. “The old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European landmass,” he said, “are over.”
Johnson is now urging the U.K. to send more battle tanks to help Ukraine repel Russian forces.
Despite the role played by new technology such as satellites and drones, this 21st-century conflict in many ways resembles one from the 20th. Fighting in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region is a brutal slog, with mud, trenches and bloody infantry assaults reminiscent of World War I.
The conflict has sparked a new arms race that reminds some analysts of the 1930s buildup to World War II. Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands of conscripts and aims to expand its military from 1 million to 1.5 million troops. The U.S. has ramped up weapons production to replace the stockpiles shipped to Ukraine. France plans to boost military spending by a third by 2030, while Germany has abandoned its longstanding ban on sending weapons to conflict zones and shipped missiles and tanks to Ukraine.
Before the war, many observers assumed that military forces would move toward more advanced technology and cyber warfare and become less reliant on tanks or artillery, said Patrick Bury, senior lecturer in security at the University of Bath.
But in Ukraine, guns and ammunition are the most important weapons.
"It is, for the moment at least, being shown that in Ukraine, conventional warfare — state-on-state — is back,” Bury said.
2. Alliances tested and toughened
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Russian President Vladimir Putin hoped the invasion would split the West and weaken NATO. Instead, the military alliance has been reinvigorated. A group set up to counter the Soviet Union has a renewed sense of purpose and two new aspiring members in Finland and Sweden, which ditched decades of nonalignment and asked to join NATO as protection against Russia.
The 27-nation European Union has hit Russia with tough sanctions and sent Ukraine billions in support. The war put Brexit squabbles into perspective, thawing diplomatic relations between the bloc and awkward former member Britain.
“The EU is taking sanctions, quite serious sanctions, in the way that it should. The U.S. is back in Europe with a vengeance in a way we never thought it would be again,” said defense analyst Michael Clarke, former head of the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
NATO member states have poured weapons and equipment worth billions of dollars into Ukraine. The alliance has buttressed its eastern flank, and the countries nearest to Ukraine and Russia, including Poland and the Baltic states, have persuaded more hesitant NATO and European Union allies, potentially shifting Europe’s center of power eastwards.
There are some cracks in the unity. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Putin’s closest ally in the EU, has lobbied against sanctions on Moscow, refused to send weapons to Ukraine and held up an aid package from the bloc for Kyiv.
Western unity will come under more and more pressure the longer the conflict grinds on.
“Russia is planning for a long war,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at the end of 2022, but the alliance was also ready for the “long haul.”
3. A new Iron Curtain
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The war has made Russia a pariah in the West. Its oligarchs have been sanctioned and its businesses blacklisted, and international brands including McDonald's and Ikea have disappeared from the country’s streets.
Yet Moscow is not entirely friendless. Russia has strengthened economic ties with China, though Beijing is keeping its distance from the fighting and so far has not sent weapons. The U.S. has recently expressed concern that may change.
China is closely watching a conflict that may serve as either encouragement or warning to Beijing about any attempt to reclaim self-governing Taiwan by force.
Putin has reinforced military links with international outcasts North Korea and Iran, which supplies armed drones that Russia unleashes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Moscow continues to build influence in Africa and the Middle East with its economic and military clout. Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has grown more powerful in conflicts from the Donbas to the Sahel.
In an echo of the Cold War, the world is divided into two camps, with many countries, including densely populated India, hedging their bets to see who emerges on top.
Tracey German, professor of conflict and security at King’s College London, said the conflict has widened a rift between the “U.S.-led liberal international order” on one side, and angry Russia and emboldened rising superpower China on the other.
4. A battered and reshaped economy
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The war’s economic impact has been felt from chilly homes in Europe to food markets in Africa.
Before the war, European Union nations imported almost half their natural gas and third of their oil from Russia. The invasion, and sanctions slapped on Russia in response, delivered an energy price shock on a scale not seen since the 1970s.
The war disrupted global trade that was still recovering from the pandemic. Food prices have soared, since Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat and sunflower oil, and Russia is the world’s top fertilizer producer.
Grain-carrying ships have continued to sail from Ukraine under a fragile U.N.-brokered deal, and prices have come down from record levels. But food remains a geopolitical football. Russia has sought to blame the West for high prices, while Ukraine and its allies accuse Russia of cynically using hunger as a weapon.
The war "has really highlighted the fragility” of an interconnected world, just as the pandemic did, German said, and the full economic impact has yet to be felt.
The war also roiled attempts to fight climate change, driving an upsurge in Europe’s use of heavily polluting coal. Yet Europe’s rush away from Russian oil and gas may speed the transition to renewable energy sources faster than countless warnings about the dangers of global warming. The International Energy Agency says the world will add as much renewable power in the next five years as it did in the last 20.
5. A new age of uncertainty
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The conflict is a stark reminder that individuals have little control over the course of history. No one knows that better than the 8 million Ukrainians who have been forced to flee homes and country for new lives in communities across Europe and beyond.
For millions of people less directly affected, the sudden shattering of Europe’s peace has brought uncertainty and anxiety.
Putin’s veiled threats to use atomic weapons if the conflict escalates revived fears of nuclear war that had lain dormant since the Cold War. Fighting has raged around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, raising the specter of a new Chernobyl.
Patricia Lewis, director of the international security program at think-tank Chatham House, said Putin's nuclear saber-rattling had provoked “more anger than fear” in the West. But concerns about nuclear escalation were heightened by Putin's Feb. 21 announcement that he was suspending Russia's participation in its sole remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the U.S.
Putin stopped short of withdrawing completely from the New START treaty and said Moscow would respect the treaty’s caps on nuclear weapons, keeping a faint glimmer of arms control alive.
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Timeline: A look at key moments in a year of war between Russia and Ukraine
A month-by-month timeline of the war in Ukraine
UpdatedThe war in Ukraine that began a year ago has killed thousands, forced millions to flee their homes, reduced entire cities to rubble and has fueled fears the confrontation could slide into an open conflict between Russia and NATO.
A look at some of the main events in the conflict.
Feb. 24, 2022: Russia invades Ukraine
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On Feb. 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin launches an invasion of Ukraine from the north, east and south. He says the "special military operation" is aimed at "demilitarization" and "denazification" of the country to protect ethnic Russians, prevent Kyiv's NATO membership and to keep it in Russia's "sphere of influence." Ukraine and the West say it's an illegal act of aggression against a country with a democratically elected government and a Jewish president whose relatives were killed in the Holocaust.
Russian troops quickly reach Kyiv's outskirts, but their attempts to capture the capital and other cities in the northeast meet stiff resistance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy records a video outside his headquarters to show he is staying and remains in charge.
About the photo: Traffic jams are seen as people leave the city of Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.
March 2, 2022: Russia takes Kherson, gets stuck near Kyiv
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On March 2, Russia claims control of the southern city of Kherson. In the opening days of March, Russian forces also seize the rest of the Kherson region and occupy a large part of the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest.
The Russian army soon gets stuck near Kyiv, and its convoys — stretching along highways leading to the Ukrainian capital — become easy prey for Ukrainian artillery and drones.
About the photo: Russian's army tanks move down a street on the outskirts of Mariupol, Ukraine, Friday, March 11, 2022.
March 29, 2022: Russia withdraws from Kyiv, shifts focus east
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Moscow announces the withdrawal of forces from Kyiv and other areas March 29, saying it will focus on the eastern industrial heartland of the Donbas, where Russia-backed separatists have fought Ukrainian forces since 2014 following the illegal annexation of Crimea.
About the photo: People with Ukrainian flags walk toward Russian army trucks during a rally against the Russian occupation in Kherson, Ukraine, on March 20, 2022. As Russian forces sought to tighten their hold on Melitopol, hundreds of residents took to the streets to demand the mayor's release.
April 2022: Mass graves discovered in Bucha
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The Russian pullback from Kyiv reveals hundreds of bodies of civilians in mass graves or left in the streets of the town of Bucha, many of them bearing signs of torture in scenes that prompt world leaders to say Russia should be held accountable for possible war crimes.
About the photo: Police work to identify civilians who were killed during the Russian occupation in Bucha, Ukraine, on the outskirts of Kyiv, before sending the bodies to the morgue, Wednesday, April 6, 2022.
April 9, 2022: Russia strikes train station, killing 52 civilians
On April 9, a Russian missile strike on a train station in the eastern city of Kramatorsk kills 52 civilians and wounds over 100.
Intense battles rage for the strategic port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov, and Russian air strikes and artillery bombardment reduce much of it to ruins.
About the photo: People board buses during their evacuation, with a Soviet MiG-17 fighter jet monument in the background, in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, Saturday, April 9, 2022. After the bombing of the train station, residents continued their attempts to leave the city on buses and other transports.
April 13, 2022: Ukraine sinks Russian missile cruiser
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On April 13, the missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, is hit by Ukrainian missiles and sinks the next day, damaging national pride.
About the photo: The Russian missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet is seen anchored in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, on Sept. 11, 2008.
May 16, 2022: Ukraine defenders surrender key steel mill
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On May 16, Ukrainian defenders of the giant Azovstal steel mill, the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in Mariupol, agree to surrender to Russian forces after a nearly three-month siege. Mariupol's fall cuts Ukraine off from the Azov coast and secures a land corridor from the Russian border to Crimea.
About this photo: In this photo provided by Azov Special Forces Regiment of the Ukrainian National Guard Press Office, a Ukrainian soldier stands inside the ruined Azovstal steel plant prior to surrender to the Russian forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, May 16, 2022.
May 18, 2022: Finland, Sweden apply for NATO membership
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On May 18, Finland and Sweden submit their applications to join NATO in a major blow to Moscow over the expansion of the military alliance.
About the photo: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg displays documents as Sweden and Finland applied for membership in Brussels, Belgium, May 18, 2022.
June 2022: Western weapons flow into Ukraine
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More Western weapons flow into Ukraine, including U.S.-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers.
About the photo: Ukrainian soldiers fire at Russian positions from a U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region June 18, 2022.
June 30, 2022: Russian troops pull back from Snake Island
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On June 30, Russian troops pull back from Snake Island, located off the Black Sea port of Odesa and seized in the opening days of the invasion.
About the photo: In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Press Office on Thursday, July 7, 2022, Ukrainian soldiers install the state flag on Snake island, in the Black Sea.
July 22, 2022: Deal struck on grain exports
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On July 22, Russia and Ukraine, with mediation by Turkey and the United Nations, agree on a deal to unblock supplies of grain stuck in Ukraine's Black Sea ports, ending a standoff that threatened global food security.
About the photo: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, and U.N. Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, sit as Sergei Shoigu, Russia's Defense Minister, and Hulusi Akar, Turkey's Defense Minister, shake hands during a signing ceremony at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul, Turkey, July 22, 2022.
July 29, 2022: 53 killed in missile strike on prison
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On July 29, a missile strike hits a prison in the Russia-controlled eastern town of Olenivka where Ukrainian soldiers captured in Mariupol were held, killing at least 53. Ukraine and Russia trade blame for the attack.
About the photo: In this photo taken from video a view of a destroyed barrack at a prison in Olenivka, in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces, eastern Ukraine, Friday, July 29, 2022.
Aug. 9, 2022: Ukraine strikes air base in Crimea
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On Aug. 9, powerful explosions strike an air base in Crimea. More blasts hit a power substation and ammunition depots there a week later. signaling the vulnerability of the Moscow-annexed Black Sea peninsula that Russia has used as a major supply hub for the war. Ukraine's top military officer later acknowledges that the attacks on Crimea were launched by Kyiv's forces.
About the photo: Rising smoke can be seen from the beach at Saky after explosions were heard from the direction of a Russian military airbase near Novofedorivka, Crimea, Aug. 9, 2022.
Aug. 20, 2022: Daughter of Russian ideologist killed in car bombing
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On Aug. 20, Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian nationalist ideologist Alexander Dugin, dies in a car bomb explosion outside Moscow that the Russian authorities blame on Ukraine.
About the photo: Philosopher Alexander Dugin speaks during the final farewell ceremony for his daughter Daria Dugina in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2022.
Sept. 6, 2022: Ukraine counteroffensive retakes parts of Kharkiv region
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On Sept. 6, the Ukrainian forces launch a surprise counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, quickly forcing Russia to pull back from broad areas held for months.
About the photo: A Ukrainian national guard serviceman stands atop a destroyed Russian tank in an area near the border with Russia, in Kharkiv region, Ukraine, Sept. 19, 2022.
Sept. 21, 2022: Putin orders mobilization of reservists, stages illegal "referendums"
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On Sept. 21, Putin orders mobilization of 300,000 reservists, an unpopular move that prompts hundreds of thousands of Russian men to flee to neighboring countries to avoid recruitment. At the same time, Russia hastily stages illegal "referendums" in Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions on whether to become part of Russia. The votes are widely dismissed as a sham by Ukraine and the West.
About the photo: Riot police block a street during a protest against mobilization in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022.
Sept. 30, 2022: Putin claims annexation of 4 regions
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On Sept. 30, Putin signs documents to annex the four regions at a Kremlin ceremony.
About the photo: From left, Moscow-appointed head of Kherson Region Vladimir Saldo, Moscow-appointed head of Zaporizhzhia region Yevgeny Balitsky, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Denis Pushilin, leader of self-proclaimed of the Donetsk People's Republic and Leonid Pasechnik, leader of self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic pose for a photo during a ceremony to sign the treaties for four regions of Ukraine to join Russia, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Friday, Sept. 30, 2022.
October 2022: Bridge linking Crimea and Russia attacked
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On Oct. 8, a truck laden with explosives blows up on the bridge linking Crimea to Russia's mainland in an attack that Putin blames on Ukraine. Russia responds with missile strikes on Ukraine's power plants and other key infrastructure.
After the first wave of attacks on Oct. 10, the barrage continues on a regular basis in the months that follow, resulting in blackouts and power rationing across the country.
About the photo: Flame and smoke rise from the Crimean Bridge connecting Russian mainland and the Crimean peninsula over the Kerch Strait, in Kerch, Crimea, Oct. 8, 2022.
November 2022: Russia retreats from Kherson
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On Nov. 9, Russia announces a pullback from the city of Kherson under a Ukrainian counteroffensive, abandoning the only regional center Moscow captured, in a humiliating retreat for the Kremlin.
About the photo: Ukrainian servicemen check the trenches dug by Russian soldiers in a retaken area in Kherson region, Ukraine, Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2022.
Dec. 5, 2022: Ukraine uses drones to hit Russian targets
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On Dec. 5, the Russian military says Ukraine used drones to target two bases for long-range bombers deep inside Russian territory. Another strike takes places later in the month, underlining Ukraine's readiness to up the ante and revealing gaps in Russian defenses.
About the photo: Ukrainian soldiers watch a drone feed from an underground command center in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022.
Dec. 21, 2022: Zelenskyy visits US
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On Dec. 21, Zelenskyy visits the United States on his first trip abroad since the war began, meeting with President Joe Biden to secure Patriot air defense missile systems and other weapons and addressing Congress.
About the photo: Vice President Kamala Harris and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif., right, react as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presents lawmakers with a Ukrainian flag autographed by front-line troops in Bakhmut, in Ukraine's contested Donetsk province, as he addresses a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022.
Jan. 1, 2023: Ukraine kills scores of freshly mobilized Russian soldiers
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On Jan. 1, just moments into the New Year, scores of freshly mobilized Russian soldiers are killed by a Ukrainian missile strike on the city of Makiivka. Russia's Defense Ministry says 89 troops were killed, while Ukrainian officials put the death toll in the hundreds.
About the photo: Workers clean rubbles after Ukrainian rocket strike in Makiivka, in Russian-controlled Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023.
Jan. 12, 2023: Russia claims capture of Soledar
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After months of ferocious fighting, Russia declares the capture of the salt-mining town of Soledar on Jan. 12, although Kyiv does not acknowledge it until days later. Moscow also presses its offensive to seize the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut.
About the photo: Ukrainian servicemen fire a 120mm mortar towards Russian positions at the frontline near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2023.
Jan. 14, 2023: Russian strike kills 45 in apartment building
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On Jan. 14, when Russia launches another wave of strikes on Ukraine's energy facilities, a Russian missile hits an apartment building in the city of Dnipro, killing 45.
About the photo: Emergency workers clear the rubble after a Russian rocket hit a multistory building leaving many people under debris in the southeastern city of Dnipro, Ukraine, Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023.
Feb. 20, 2023: Biden makes surprise visit to Kyiv
On Feb. 20, U.S. President Joe Biden makes a surprise visit to Kyiv where he meets with the Ukrainian president in a remarkable and defiant display of solidarity.
About the photo: US President Joe Biden, center, meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and Olena Zelenska, left, spouse of President Zelenskyy, at Mariinsky Palace during an unannounced visit in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Feb. 20, 2023.
