Rebecca Sasnett, Arizona Daily Star, File

While COVID-19 patients across Arizona increasingly overwhelm hospitals, the stateโ€™s COVID-19 death count has reached an unfortunate milestone.

In the last year, since mid-December 2020, more than 14,000 people have died of COVID-19 in Arizona, according to the Arizona Department of Health Servicesโ€™ data on COVID-19 deaths.

This is a โ€œstaggering number and something to remind us how serious this pandemic has been for our state,โ€ said Dr. Joshua LaBaer, executive director of Arizona State Universityโ€™s Biodesign Institute.

โ€œThat makes COVID-19 the leading cause of death in our state, ahead of both heart disease and cancer,โ€ LaBaer said, adding that it doesnโ€™t include people who died from other causes that went untreated because the medical system was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients.

On a shorter, more recent time frame, the stateโ€™s death count has also risen to a notable level. Its seven-day death rate was ranked second in the country behind Montana, as of Friday, with nearly 7 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor with the University of Arizonaโ€™s College of Public Health, also pointed out that nearly 400 people died from COVID-19 in the last week of November.

Vaccine rate low for young kids

This weekly tally is well below the stateโ€™s record weekly death count of over 1,000 deaths in the second week in January 2021, but Gerald pointed out that vaccines are much more widely distributed now than they were nearly a year ago.

โ€œTo have 400 deaths (in a week) a year after vaccines have been widely available, itโ€™s incredibly disappointing and frustrating,โ€ he said. โ€œMost of those deaths would have been preventable with greater vaccine uptake.โ€

The risk of dying from COVID-19 in October was 15 times higher for unvaccinated people than fully vaccinated people, according to a biweekly ADHS report published Dec. 8 on breakthrough COVID-19 cases and deaths, which showed that the wide majority of COVID-19 deaths happen to unvaccinated people.

โ€œDeaths are almost exclusively occurring in people who were not previously vaccinated,โ€ Gerald said.

Statewide, 64% of the population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, according to ADHS.

Children 5 to 11 years old, however, have a particularly low vaccination rate in Arizona, with about 24% having received their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, as of Dec. 15, according to ADHS.

In Pima County the vaccination rate for this age group is a bit higher with nearly 33% having received their first dose.

Itโ€™s been harder to vaccinate this age group than some health experts had anticipated.

โ€œNot that many people came out to get the shot into their kidsโ€™ arms right away. I think it may be pandemic fatigue,โ€ said Dr. Sean Elliott, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Tucson Medical Center.

โ€œThe challenge has been not the supply. I mean, there are multiple places for children to get that specific lower dose vaccine,โ€ he said. โ€œThe challenge I believe is the uptake.โ€

He attributes the low vaccination rate among this young age group to both pandemic fatigue and vaccine hesitancy, which he said pediatricians can mostly resolve in conversations with parents, although some wonโ€™t change their mind.

He also attributes the low rate to the fact that children are generally less symptomatic and less severely ill with COVID-19.

โ€œYet some kids still do get sick,โ€ he said. โ€œAnd more importantly, kids are increasingly contagious to others.โ€

Both state and county health departments have held or participated in video conferences to answers parentsโ€™ questions about the COVID-19 vaccine.

โ€˜Hospitals could get crushedโ€™

As hospitals near capacity, health experts warn things can get worse.

โ€œWe are in a surge without a doubt,โ€ LaBaer said. โ€œItโ€™s increasingly difficult for the hospitals now to get nurses to cover all the beds.โ€

On Dec. 16 only 5% of Arizona adult ICU beds were available, according to ADHS data.

In Pima County, less than 2% of adult ICU beds were available on Dec. 16, with 354 of 360 beds taken, according to the countyโ€™s health department.

Meanwhile, flu cases are also on the rise, which Gerald said creates a triple threat for Arizona this winter combined with the delta and omicron COVID-19 variants.

โ€œIโ€™m kind of worried about where we could be in early 2022,โ€ he said. โ€œOur hospitals could get crushed.โ€

While the first omicron variant in Arizona was reported on Dec. 9 in Yavapai County, the first case of this variant in Pima County was reported on Dec. 16.

The person who tested positive for the omicron variant in Pima County was diagnosed with COVID-19 in early December, according to the countyโ€™s Health Department.

Early data suggest that the omicron variant spreads even faster than the delta variant. Scientists also say it likely escapes immunity better too.

โ€œAlmost certainly thereโ€™s less vaccine protection against omicron than there was against delta,โ€ LaBaer said. โ€œThat said, it does look like a booster shot makes a big difference. So people whoโ€™ve had a booster shot from the vaccine are much better protected against omicron than just the initial two doses. This is a good reason to go out and get the booster shot.โ€

Delta cases are still dominate across Arizona and Pima County.

โ€œI think people who are asking the question, โ€˜Vaccine or no vaccine?โ€™ are probably asking the wrong question. Really, itโ€™s a question of vaccines versus getting the virus almost certainly, unless you live a hermitโ€™s life,โ€ LaBaer said. โ€œIf youโ€™ve not been vaccinated, youโ€™re almost certainly going to get COVID-19 at some point with omicron spreading through our community.โ€

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Contact reporter Alex Devoid at adevoid@tucson.com or 573-4417. On Twitter: @DevoidAlex