Now that much of Erie County is officially in a state-imposed yellow zone aimed at reducing the spread of Covid-19, the question is: How long are we going to be here?
The short answer: Don't expect things to change for the better anytime soon.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo has touted the fact that geographic regions that receive yellow, orange or red focus zone labels have successfully curbed the spread of Covid-19 and eventually had restrictions loosened.
But while state and county officials will revisit the status every week, the state has moved slowly and cautiously to lift yellow zone designations elsewhere.
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has designated three cities and 11 Erie County towns as part of a "yellow zone" that will set new limits on public gatherings.
"If you look at what's happened in Broome and Brooklyn, it took them at least a month before they were able to move out of their zone," said County Executive Mark Poloncarz. "So it's going to be revisited on a weekly basis, but I don't think people should just assume that next week we're back to normal."
Local health experts say the opposite is likely to happen.
"The likelihood that weβre going to go orange or red is much, much higher than getting out of the yellow in the short term," saidΒ Dr. Thomas Russo,Β chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.
While Russo calls himself an optimist, he says he has to take a clear-eyed view of the trending data.
"I would be lying to you if I said it wasnβt a discouraging two weeks," Russo said.
The state's microcluster approach targets specific areas with high coronavirus infection rates. It includes red zones for the most serious spread of the virus, orange zones for areas adjacent to red zones or that have slightly less severe infection rates, and yellow zones for areas that have elevated infection levels.
Many variables go into deciding how long the Erie County's yellow zone designation lasts, and whether that designation gets lifted or changed to red or orange.Β
If Erie County's confirmed cases and hospitalizations continue to increase, odds are good that parts of the county will see the yellow zone status changed to a much more restrictive orange or red zone.
"I'll put this out here now," Poloncarz said. "If it gets worse, I'm expecting things to be moved into an orange zone. If it gets really bad, I'm expecting us to go to a red zone, which is basically shut down everything again."
Read the full story from News Staff Reporter Sandra Tan
Numbers rising 'extraordinarily quickly'
As it stands, Poloncarz said, there are some pockets of Erie County that already qualify for orange zone status. But Poloncarz and state officials agreed that designating a larger area as yellow would be a better strategy to slow the infection rate.
Given Erie County's population, current infection rate data and trend line, the county is closer to meeting the standards to move into the more restrictive orange or red zones than meeting the requirements that would allowΒ the county to shed the new restrictions completely.
"The numbers are going up extraordinarily quickly," he said.
Confirmed cases in Erie County have tripled over the last two weeks and the percentage of Covid-19 tests coming back positive has exceeded 4% for the past three days, on a seven-day rolling average. That's higher than the recommended standard of the World Health Organization.
In order to move into the orange zone, parts of Erie County would have to carry a positive test rate above 3%, as a seven-day rolling average, for 10 consecutive days as well as meet other criteria.
To move into the red zone, parts of the county would have to have an average positive test rate above 4% for 10 consecutive days, along with other criteria.Β
Right now, the biggest factor preventing Erie County from moving into a more restrictive zone is the fact that this surge in cases for parts of the county doesn't yet meet the 10-day requirement, Russo said.Β
Compare that against what it would take for Erie County to have the yellow zoneΒ β or any zoneΒ β designation completely lifted.
The zone area would have to show a decline in positive test rates, as a seven-day rolling average, over a 10-day period and have an average test positivity rate below 1.5% for at least three consecutive days at the end of the 10-day period.
Given where Erie County's testing rate is right now, and the upcoming holiday season, this standard is far more difficult to meet.
"Weβve got a pretty widespread burden of disease throughout Erie County," Russo said.
New zone rules
Erie County is the first Western New York county to receive a zone designation that rolls back the reopening standards.
New rules under the yellow "precautionary" zone restrictions announced Monday, which include most of Erie County's most populated areas, include:
β’ Allowable gatherings are reduced from 50 people to 25 people.
β’ Houses of worship must limit services to 50% of capacity.
β’ Restaurants may seat no more than four people to a table, indoors or out, and bars must close by midnight.
β’ Schools remain open, but those that offer in-school instruction must test 20% of their students and staff weekly.
If the Covid-19 numbers worsen, however, the state's rules will become more restrictive.
Orange zones would shutter nonessential businesses considered high risk, such as gyms and movie theaters, and close on-site learning at schools.
In red zones, nonessential gatherings are prohibited, nonessential businesses are closed, schools are remote-instruction only, dining is limited to takeout and delivery, and houses of worship are limited to 25% of capacity or 10 people, whichever is lower.
County residents are not helpless in the face of these odds, however, health officials said.
"The direction we go depends on behavior," Russo said.
'Be a good citizen'
Both Russo and Poloncarz said that the yellow zone designation should serve as a wake-up call to residents who have gotten complacent about mask wearing and social distancing requirements after months of relatively low case numbers.
"I hope we circle the wagons," Russo said.
He pointed to the latest piece of good news from Pfizer, which could result in a vaccine being distributed within the next four to six months. People just need to play it safe until a vaccine is ready, he said.
"We want to use this one piece of encouraging information to let people know thereβs light at the end of the tunnel," he said.
Poloncarz renewed his plea to residents to do their part to keep the county from re-entering shutdown mode.
"Please wear masks, wash your hands, be a good citizen," he said. "Be a good representative of the City of Good Neighbors, the county of good neighbors. We can do this."
