How desperate are Arizona grocers to get you into their stores?
Desperate enough, apparently, to offer their customers lower prices for turkeys than last year, despite what appear to be higher wholesale prices due to bird flu.
And that means the typical traditional Thanksgiving dinner should cost Arizonans slightly less this year than a year ago.
The Arizona Farm Bureau Federation figures a 10-item market basket, including the turkey, all the fixings and dessert for a family of 10 will put the average shopper back $53.17. That's down 21 cents from a year ago.
As always, the big-ticket item is the centerpiece. The Farm Bureau's shoppers, who check prices at stores, were able to purchase a 16-pound young tom turkey for about $1.18 a pound on average.
That's less than the $1.21 a pound a year ago, which is a surprising drop, said Julie Murphree, outreach coordinator for the bureau.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has been reporting that U.S. turkey meat production this year is projected to hit 4.8 billion pounds, down from more than 5.1 million in 2024. Much of that is due to the bird flu, a highly contagious virus that has caused some supply shortages.
Arizona grocers are offering their customers lower prices on turkeys this year, and there are some real deals out there.
In fact, wholesale prices for turkeys have increased about 40%, said Brad Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, in a podcast.
So why the disconnect between wholesale and retail prices?
Murphree said it's a simple matter of marketing.
"The turkey, which is the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving Day meal, it's a willing loss most of the time for your retail stores,'' she said. Retailers realize that once shoppers are in the store, their grocery carts are likely to fill up with other higher-margin items.
And this year's shopping list from the Arizona Farm Bureau does find some items with higher price tags than last year, including fresh cranberries, pie shells and sweet potatoes.
But Murphree said there's another factor at play in the turkey prices.
Yes, she said, the number of live turkeys produced this year is down from last year. But that doesn't paint a full picture.
"We have frozen bird inventories that are up 4% from the previous year at this time,'' Murphree said.
Important to note is that the annual survey is based on the shelf price that federation shoppers found when they went to stores. It does not include the additional savings that may be available for customers who hold a grocer's affinity card or have coupons to use.
And there are some deals to be had, as grocers cut prices even more on key items in hopes it will get shoppers into their stores and fill up their baskets with everything else.
Watch the food ads. Shoppers should be able to find turkeys at prices below the $1.18 a pound average in the annual report.
For example, Fry's is advertising Butterball turkeys at 99 cents a pound for those who have the chain's affinity card if they also buy $25 worth of other groceries. Its own Kroger turkeys are being offered under the same conditions at 89 cents a pound.
Bashas' is going one better, with a deal for Norbest turkeys at 67 cents a pound for shoppers with the store's discount card.
And it could be a race to the bottom, with Safeway and Albertsons advertising that they will match whatever price and deal is being offered by Fry's and Bashas'.
But if you're planning ahead for the big dinner, remember that it takes about four days in the refrigerator — the preferred method — to defrost a 16-pound bird.
