They may not be a bargain but an increasing supply of turkeys this year is driving down the price of the traditional centerpiece of family Thanksgiving dinner.
New figures from the Arizona Farm Bureau Federation peg the average cost of a frozen 16-pound self-basting turkey at $18.32. That’s less than $1.15 a pound.
By comparison, buying that same bird in 2022 would have set you back $32.02.
So what changed?
There are more birds, explained Julie Murphree, the federation’s outreach director. And that, she said, is because the avian flu that decimated some growers last year finally appears to be over.
That virus is considered so contagious that producers killed entire flocks if just one bird got sick. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the result was that on a nationwide basis, turkey production fell 6% in 2022 “and prices rose to historic highs.”
Indeed.
That same turkey cost Arizona shoppers just $19.40 in 2021. And that was up from $14.08 in 2020 and $11.18 the year before that.
This year’s lower turkey prices, in turn, will have a ripple effect.
Murphree said that shoppers for her organization managed to purchase the entire market basket of typical Thanksgiving items this year for just $51.90. Last year those same items would ring up at $71.88, a figure that set a new record in the three decades the Farm Bureau has been doing the surveys, even when inflation is factored in.
A pile of sweet potatoes are for sale ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday at Walmart.
Most of the other items for the dinner also dropped in price this year, though nowhere near as dramatically as the cost of the bird.
One big exception is cranberries, a must-have for those who prefer something home-made compared to the jelly that keeps its shape even after it leaves the can.
Farm Bureau shoppers reported they were able to buy a 12-ounce bag for $1.95. That’s down by more than a third from 2022.
The why is less clear.
According to the USDA, the crop this year is forecast at 7.62 million barrels, down 5.4% from 2022. Still, the federal agency said production is 9% higher than 2021.
A shopper walks by a display of pies for sale at Walmart.
What’s important to note in all this, however, is that the annual survey is based on the shelf price that federation shoppers found when they went to the store. More to the point, it does not include the additional savings that may be available for customers who hold a grocer’s affinity card.
And there are some deals to be had, as grocers cut prices on key items in hopes that it will get shoppers into their stores — and filling up their baskets with everything else.
Fry’s, for example, is offering frozen Butterball turkeys for 99 cents a pound to customers who have the company’s VIP card and who buy at least $25 worth of other groceries.
Safeway and Albertsons, now owned by the same company, are matching any deals at Fry’s or Bashas’.
Bashas’, in turn, says it will match any other deal from Fry’s, Safeway or Albertsons on any frozen turkey with a Jennie-O turkey — plus take another nickel a pound off the price for those who have their Thank You Card.
And its Food City outlets are offering Jennie-O for 89 cents a pound with a $25 purchase.
Walmart’s Jennie-O frozen turkeys are ringing in at 98 cents per pound without an affinity card.
But if you’re planning ahead, remember that it takes about four days in the refrigerator — the preferred method — to defrost a 16-pound bird.
