For the current week, 23% of those who were checked out in Arizona were found to test positive for the virus that causes COVID-19. That compares for 18% last week and 14% the week before.

 Mamta Popat / Arizona Daily Star

PHOENIX β€” Gov. Doug Ducey won’t impose any new restrictions on individuals or businesses despite what appears to be a record number of daily COVID-19 cases in Arizona and a trend that is pushing even higher.

And he has no plans to extend a moratorium on residential evictions once a federal ban on ousting tenants expires at the end of the month.

The Arizona Department of Health Services on Tuesday reported 12,314 new COVID-19 cases, a figure that hasn’t been seen since the beginning of the pandemic.

There also were 23 more deaths, bringing the Arizona total to 6,973.

The numbers reflect what was reported to the department on Monday, so they could include a spike in tests over the weekend. Because of delays in those reports, the department eventually sorts the tests based on the actual dates they were administered.

But the department’s day-by-day delayed analysis, even after sorting the numbers by actual test dates, shows there were a record 7,645 cases reported for Nov. 30.

That compares with the June 29 peak of 5,452, the day the governor concluded he had made a mistake in allowing bars, gyms, water parks and movie theaters to reopen.

β€œWe’re fixing it,” Ducey said at the time when asked if he had erred in allowing bars to reopen six weeks earlier.

Since that time, though, he has relaxed his restrictions, allowing businesses to operate, albeit some at reduced capacity and if they promise to follow certain health protocols.

Warnings of dire conditions

Those restrictions appear to not be working.

It isn’t just that there are more people testing positive. That could be seen as a result of wider testing.

There’s also the fact that the percentage of positive tests is up β€” sharply.

For the current week, 23% of those who were checked out were found to have the virus. That compares for 18% last week and 14% the week before.

The latest spike in positive tests could have repercussions down the road.

At last count there were 3,157 patients in Arizona hospitals with positive or suspected cases. The last time the figure was that high was July 17.

There also are 744 intensive-care beds in use, also the highest since July, and representing 43% of ICU capacity.

Factoring in people hospitalized for other reasons, as well, the overall number of available hospital beds dropped this week as low as 143, which is within 8% of total capacity.

Other indicators point to things getting worse absent some change in conduct.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting an average of 55 coronavirus deaths a day in Arizona by the end of the year, and for the average to reach 73 by the third week of January. That’s even with a planned rapid rollout of vaccine to the highest-risk individuals factored in.

In his latest forecast, Dr. Joe Gerald, of the Zuckerman College of Public Health at the University of Arizona, predicted dire problems in access to critical care due to shortages of space, personnel and critical supplies.

β€œIf not addressed within the next one to two weeks, this crisis will evolve into a humanitarian crisis leading to hundreds of preventable deaths,” he wrote. β€œAt this point, only shelter-in-place restrictions are certain to quickly and sufficiently curtail viral transmission.”

White House task force says Arizona should do more

Even the latest report about Arizona from the White House Coronavirus Task Force, one of the sources Ducey has said he has relied upon, urges Arizona to do more.

β€œMitigation efforts must increase,” the report says. That includes β€œno indoor gatherings outside of immediate households.”

Ducey’s reaction: β€œIt’s clear the numbers are moving in the wrong direction and are having a tremendous impact on our health-care system,” said his press aide C.J. Karamargin.

But he had no announcements of any changes in current regulations.

Democratic lawmakers urge continued eviction relief

Ducey does have other powers to deal with the pandemic above and beyond health precautions.

In March he imposed a moratorium on evictions of renters affected by COVID-19, whether due to themselves or a family member having the virus or because they lost a job because of the pandemic. He said this is health-related because keeping people in their homes helps prevent spread of the virus.

Ducey extended his order several times before allowing it to expire at the end of October. But the governor noted at that time there would be no immediate effect because the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had imposed its own moratorium.

That federal ban self-destructs at the end of this month. On Tuesday, citing the rise in COVID-19 cases and that Dec. 31 expiration, Democratic legislative leaders called on the governor to once again protect tenants from losing their homes and apartments.

But Karamargin said the governor has no plans to do so, saying it’s a federal issue.

β€œThis issue underscores the need for Congress to act,” he said.

He acknowledged that the governor did not wait for federal action earlier this year. But he said Ducey believes this should be part of the discussion going on in Washington, D.C., about the next step in federal coronavirus relief.

There was no commitment from Ducey to act if there is no new federal moratorium by the end of the year.

State Rep. Kirsten Engel, D-Tucson, said that makes no sense given that Ducey has advised people that the safest place to be is at home.

β€œYou can only stay home if you have a home,” she said.

The most recent survey by the U.S. Census Bureau shows about 14% of Arizonans said they were caught up on their rent. About 56,000 people said they are very or somewhat likely to lose their homes or apartments in the next two months.

Democrats call for new restrictions

While Ducey is unwilling to react to the numbers, legislative Democrats have shown no such reticence.

The Pima County Health Department, Pima Community College and Arizona State University (ASU) are opening three new COVID-19 testing sites over the next few weeks. The PCC-West campus site is open on Mondays, 9:00a.m. to 1:00p.m., starting Nov. 16, 2020. Two other sites, at PCC-Desert Vista campus and PCC-East campus, will open as soon as Dec. 2. Advanced registration is required. Go to pima.gov/covid19testing for more information.

Some of what they want is not new, like a statewide mask mandate.

Reginald Bolding, the incoming House minority leader, does not dispute Ducey’s assertion that most of the state already is covered by local mask ordinances. But he said that’s not enough.

β€œWe believe that more Arizonans will accept and take that responsibility for themselves and their neighbors,” Bolding said, saying the current situation creates β€œmixed messages.”

Senate Minority Leader Rebecca Rios wants an absolute ban on gatherings of more than 25. The current state restriction is at 50, but with a provision that allows for a local waiver.

Ducey did add a requirement last week for local authorities to demand and enforce mitigation measures on such gatherings like masks and social distancing.

Rios said more is needed. And, unlike Ducey, she would have no exceptions for religious services, political gatherings and other activities that the governor has carved out as protected by the First Amendment.

β€œThe reality of the situation is, we’re in a crisis,” Rios said. β€œAnd if everybody wants to pick and choose who they think should be exempt, then it doesn’t work.”

Ducey’s state health director, Dr. Cara Christ, also isn’t recommending changes in what Arizona individuals and businesses should or should not be allowed to do.

β€œThe number of cases added to the dashboard today is concerning but not unexpected,” she said on Tuesday.

She said her department anticipated an increase two weeks after the Thanksgiving holiday, the normal incubation period for the virus, as families gathered in increased numbers.

In anticipation of another spike after the December holidays, Christ is urging people to take additional precautions and limit contacts beyond their immediate families.

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