Upping Arizona college enrollment could mean $5B economic gain, group says

Arizona could increase its annual economic gains by $5 billion if it’s able to increase postsecondary enrollment by 20%, according to Education Forward Arizona.

Increased postsecondary attainment, according to the group, leads to increased “lifetime earnings, improved health, reduced crime and welfare spending and increased workforce productivity,” all of which they estimate will produce large economic gains.

Boosting enrollment may be hard, however, given that state and local government support, or appropriations, for public higher education per student in fiscal year 2022 was 39.1% less in Arizona than the national average and ranked 49th among the 50 states, only beating out New Hampshire.

A new poll released by Education Forward Arizona, which focuses on improving educational outcomes in the state, showed that about 60% of Arizonans surveyed believe they’d be “better off” with more education or career training.

“It’s disappointing because we have states around us that are investing to encourage the students and families from poor and low-income communities to get their education after high school,” said Education Forward Arizona President and CEO Rich Nickel. “It’s something we’ve made a conscious decision in our state not to do.”

Under the state government’s new budget, the three state universities are seeing additional cuts, as are most state agencies due to a big state deficit.

The University of Arizona will see just under $8 million in state funding cuts to its main campus and its health sciences center. Arizona State University faces just under $11 million in cuts and Northern Arizona University will see about $4 million in cuts. The Arizona Promise Program scholarship fund and the Arizona Teachers Academy are also seeing cuts of $20 million and $15 million, respectively.

This makes Arizona an outlier in the country, as state higher education funding rose by 3.7% beyond inflation in fiscal year 2023, according to the latest State Higher Education Finance report.

Currently, 48.3% of Arizonans enroll in postsecondary education, which includes trade schools, community colleges and four-year institutions.

The poll released by Education Forward Arizona targeted state residents aged 18 to 44 who have not completed an education beyond high school. Respondents included those who have never attended a postsecondary institution and those who attended additional schooling but dropped out before completion. It was conducted by a bipartisan team, including Republican and Democratic pollsters.

Cost was one of the most popular reasons cited by those polled as to why they did not complete post-secondary education.

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“Half of the respondents were saying some assistance with the cost would be essential for finishing,” said FM3 Research Partner and President David Metz.

The Arizona Constitution mandates that university instruction “shall be as nearly free as possible.” This was interpreted by the state Supreme Court in 1935 to mean that “fees could be neither excessive nor unreasonable.”

According to the University of Arizona’s website, the estimated cost for an undergraduate Arizona resident living on campus, which includes tuition, fees and living expenses, is $35,796 per year. The base tuition at the UA is $13,900, but adding books, travel, housing expenses and other fees brings the total much higher.

At Pima Community College, the tuition depends on how many classes a student takes. While average tuition is $2,298, when the college adds the cost of rent, transportation and other expenses, the estimated cost for the year is $18,952.

In the new survey, 60% of women polled said the cost of completing a postsecondary degree was too expensive, compared to 53% of men. Additionally, 62% of Pima Country residents surveyed said they found postsecondary educational opportunities to be too costly, compared to 54% of those in Maricopa County.

This finding echoes other experts’ claims. A report released last summer by professors at ASU said that “relative to most states, Arizona places a higher share of the cost of higher education on students than on society as a whole.”

Most of the other answers to why respondents did not pursue postsecondary education “don’t come close” to the issue of affordability.

Postsecondary education attainment opportunities are also often decided by race and ethnicity, according to the polling. Fifty-three percent of Latinx respondents and 50% of all people of color said they prioritized work over postsecondary education because they needed to financially support others such as children, parents or grandparents. That compares to 39% of white respondents.

It appears plenty of Arizonans do desire to study at a postsecondary level, despite the cost. According to the poll, just under 50% of respondents said they would “like to enroll in some type of education or training beyond high school and earn a credential or degree in the future.”

Leaders at Education Forward Arizona are now considering polling people on strategies to help raise postsecondary educational attainment in the state, and are sharing their findings with lawmakers to lobby for increasing funding.

“These findings, especially for us that are really concerned about this opportunity group of Arizonans that haven’t really participated or benefited from the great benefits that come with postsecondary education, are a little humbling,” Nickel said. “Especially knowing that affordability and cost is the one thing that continues to rise above all others.”