PHOENIX — Gov. Doug Ducey really doesn’t want to have to deal with a Democrat Senate this coming legislative session.
The governor is so interested in making sure the chamber remains in Republican hands that he has already spent close to $200,000 to help candidates in potentially close races in Tuesday’s elections.
It actually isn’t Ducey’s own money going to prop up GOP incumbents and contenders. The money comes from Arizonans for Strong Leadership, the committee he set up to make independent expenditures on behalf of those he wants elected.
That money, in turn, comes from individuals and special interests who have agreed to give Ducey their money rather than spend it themselves. And fully a quarter of that comes from the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona.
Democrats may pick up some seats in the House, currently split 36-24 with a Republican majority. But the likelihood of the GOP losing its majority in the House is very unlikely.
Republicans control only 17 of the 30 seats in the Senate. And if the Democrats pick up just two that would create a 15-15 split.
That last happened more than a decade ago, resulting in a coalition government of sorts with Democrats given control of key positions. That included chairing the powerful Appropriations Committee as well as committees on transportation, government, judiciary and natural resources.
Ducey told Capitol Media Services Monday he will work with whatever Legislature the voters give him.
If that means having to deal with Democrats, Ducey said he has worked across the aisle for the first two years of his administration and will continue to cooperate with those “who want to work with us on our agenda.” But, all in all, the governor would prefer a Senate with a Republican majority.
“If I have someone I know has a commitment to fiscal responsibility, I’m going to help that person get into public office,” he said.
Part of the reason Ducey finds himself having to defend the GOP majority in the Senate is because of an intramural fight within his own party.
Incumbent Jeff Dial, elected to the Senate just two years ago, was ousted in the Republican primary by Frank Schmuck. It did not help that Dial made questionable claims about his military record, a point exploited by Schmuck, a decorated war veteran.
But the divisive primary in Chandler creates an opportunity for Democrat Sean Bowie in an area that generally has been considered a safe Republican district. So Ducey’s committee has spent more than $55,000 on behalf of Schmuck and to keep District 18 in GOP hands.
The bigger problem potentially for the GOP stems from the decision by incumbent Republican Adam Driggs not to seek re-election. That set the stage in District 28 for a battle between the two House members from that district, Republican Kate Brophy McGee and Democrat Eric Meyer.
Close to $70,000 of what was spent by Arizonans for Strong Leadership was spent on pro-McGee campaign materials. That doesn’t count another $11,304 listed by the committee attacking Meyer.
On paper, the edge should go to McGee, and not only because Driggs held the seat before. There are 11,000 more Republicans registered than Democrats out of more than 134,000 signed up to vote this year.
But there also are more than 42,000 independents.
And there’s something else: the possibility that anti-Trump sentiment among some party faithful could translate into some sitting out the election entirely.
In central Arizona District 8, the dynamics are different, with incumbent Democrat Barbara McGuire of Kearny is attempting to hang on to the seat she won four years ago.
But she faces a strong challenge from Republican Rep. Frank Pratt of Casa Grande. He had no choice but to seek to oust McGuire if he wants to stay in the Legislature as he served the maximum four two-year terms in the House.
In this district, Democrats outnumber Republicans but only by about 1,200.
Ducey’s committee also is spending money to try to keep Republican Sen. Sylvia Allen of Snowflake from being turned out of office in District 6. She faces a strong challenge from former Jerome Mayor Nikki Bagley.
Spencer Kamps, lobbyist for the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona said the decision to give his group’s money to Ducey instead of spending it separately was deliberate. He said it made more sense to “take advantage of a pool of resources combined with other donations to be effective out there on the campaign trail.”
“There’s something to be said for a coordinated effort through that kind of committee,” Kamps said, saying it would be “more helpful to be involved in a larger effort than just the association going off and doing our own stuff.”
Other than the home builders, the biggest donation to Ducey’s committee came from Tucsonan Paavo Ensio who kicked in $25,000.
Financial disclosure forms filed with the state list his occupation as retired. But Ensio also is listed on records at the Arizona Corporation Commission as a director of Minerals Research and Recovery Inc. which, according to the company’s web site “has been active in the mining, processing and marketing of various mineral products since 1980.”
Federal financial disclosure forms show Ensio has a history of contributing not only to Republicans but specifically to groups involved in religious issues, including $525,000 in 2012 to the Faith Family Freedom Fund.
