A new survey suggests that efforts to enact a Texas-style abortion law in Arizona would not be greeted warmly.
The online poll conducted earlier this month found that 39% of Arizonans surveyed approve of the Texas “heartbeat act,’’ while 51% do not approve.
That law makes it illegal to perform an abortion after a fetal heartbeat can be detected, a point that occurs as early as six weeks, which may be before some women realize they are pregnant.
The law also empowers any individual to file suit against anyone who aids in the abortion, meaning not just the doctor but potentially anyone else involved, from the office staff and counselors, to the driver of the vehicle who takes a woman to the clinic. Anyone found guilty faces a $10,000 civil penalty.
Cathi Herrod, president of the anti-abortion Center for Arizona Policy, has said the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to allow the law to take effect appears to provide a “road map’’ for enacting abortion restrictions in this state that, until now, have been struck down by federal courts.
The key to that decision is that it is not the state interfering with the right of a woman to choose but instead civil litigants. The justices, in a 5-4 split, said they were not ready and briefed to look at that issue.
How the numbers break down
Pollster Mike Noble of OH Predictive Insights said he found 23% of the 882 registered Arizona voters questioned strongly agree with the Texas law, with another 16% saying they are somewhat in agreement.
Conversely, 51% disapproved, including 37% who are in strong disapproval.
Not surprisingly, the Texas law was backed in whole or partially by 76% of those surveyed who described themselves as “pro-life,’’ with just 6% of those opposed.
That compares with 17% backing of the law by those who call themselves “pro-choice,’’ with 73% in that group disapproving.
Exactly where to draw the line on the issue of abortion, however, is a little more nuanced.
Of those asked, 13% said they believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, while 40% are on the opposite side.
But a plurality of Arizona voters surveyed — 47% — were somewhere in the middle, saying they believe the procedure should be legal “under certain circumstances.’’
As it turns out, even 63% of those who described themselves as “pro-life’’ also said they believe the procedure should be restricted but not banned outright. Among the “pro-life” voters questioned, 28% took the stance that all abortions should be outlawed.
Noble found a link between religion and opinions on the issue.
For example, among those who want abortion outlawed, he found more than a quarter said they attend religious services once a week.
The middle ground — to allow abortion under certain circumstances — included 59% of those who attend services weekly.
And the group that wants abortion permitted in all circumstances included 72% of atheists and 55% who said they never attend religious services.
Arizona law before judge now
The survey comes as a federal judge is weighing whether to allow the state’s latest attempt to restrict abortion to take effect as scheduled on Wednesday, Sept. 29.
That law, passed by the barest margin in the Legislature — and with only Republican support — would make it a crime for a medical practitioner to perform an abortion knowing that the sole reason the woman wanted to terminate the pregnancy is because the fetus has a genetic defect. That would apply even if a fetus is not yet viable, which has until now been the dividing line that federal courts have found between what a state can ban and what it can only regulate.
Violators of the new Arizona law could be sent to state prison for up to a year.
In arguments last week, Assistant Attorney General Michael Catlett told U.S. District Court Judge Douglas Rayes that the law passes constitutional muster because it is not an outright ban.
He acknowledged that a doctor, told of a woman’s request to terminate a pregnancy in which a fetus has a genetic defect, would be prohibited, under penalty of law, from performing the procedure. But Catlett argued that women still could get an abortion by going to another doctor and either not providing that information — or by lying about it entirely.
Rayes could rule as early as this week.
Noble said the survey results suggest a disconnect between the Republican lawmakers who continue to approve abortion restrictions and the state’s voters. He said legislators appear to be operating on the basis that Arizona is as conservative on the issue as it once was.
“It’s clearly not as hard-right a state as they believe,’’ he said.
The online opt-in survey, balanced to reflect the state’s demographics, has a margin of error of 3.3%.
