Dr. Cara Christ said it’s “hard to predict” when restrictions can be removed “because we learn new things every day.”

 Thomas Hawthorne / The Arizona Republic file

PHOENIX — The state’s top health official testified Thursday she cannot say what indicators will be used to determine when the COVID-19 health emergency is over and the governor’s emergency orders are no longer necessary — and when Arizonans can get their lives back to the way they were before.

In fact, Dr. Cara Christ said a decline to minimal levels in the risk-of-spread benchmarks set by the state won’t necessarily lead her to recommend that Gov. Doug Ducey dissolve his orders and give up the emergency powers he assumed in March. She said there are other considerations.

But Christ also said the emergency declaration may end even if people are still getting sick and dying of the virus. It may just be that Arizonans will have to learn to live with it, she said.

What currently makes any disease an emergency is that it could overwhelm hospitals, Christ said. At some point, though, that won’t be the case.

“That would change with COVID-19 as we continue in this pandemic,” Christ said.

“And then it would just be like living with the influenza,” she continued. “At that point it wouldn’t be a public-health emergency any more.”

The CDC has announced new guidelines for the selection, cleaning and wearing of face masks.

Christ’s comments came as she was being questioned in a hearing in Maricopa County Superior Court by attorney Ilan Wurman.

He represents more than 100 owners of bars that remain unable to reopen and operate the way they used to, due to the Ducey-declared emergency.

Wurman is trying to convince Judge Pamela Gates the restrictions on bars make no sense, especially as other businesses, including restaurants that serve alcoholic beverages, are allowed to be open.

Christ was asked when she thinks the emergency, and Ducey’s restrictions on businesses including bars, will or should go away.

“That’s hard to predict now because we learn new things every day,” she testified.

One issue in the case is how long Ducey can exercise his emergency authority.

Wurman said there are indicators. He pointed out the state health department has established “benchmarks” to determine the risk of spread of the virus.

These look at three issues: the number of cases per 100,000 residents, the percentage of tests for the virus that come back positive, and the percentage of patients going to hospital emergency rooms with COVID-like symptoms.

Each of those can be listed as having a substantial, moderate or minimal risk of spread.

Wurman wanted to know at what point those benchmarks will indicate the emergency is over.

“It’s a little bit difficult,” Christ responded.

“Those benchmarks weren’t established to determine an end to the public health emergency,” she said. “They were really established to set benchmarks for business to be able to reopen and schools to go back into session.”

That didn’t satisfy Wurman.

He told her to assume a scenario where there is no vaccine, no “therapeutic” to effectively treat the disease, and no “herd immunity” where enough people have contracted the virus, survived and now have antibodies.

Given all that, he asked Christ when she would be willing to recommend to Ducey that he rescind his emergency orders.

“If we were consistently at very, very low cases, if CLI (COVID-like illnesses) stayed low and the percent positivity remains low, below that 3%, we may make that recommendation,” she responded.

“Again, it’s hard to predict,” Christ said.

Wurman pressed harder.

“If all three of the benchmarks established by your department indicated we had been at minimal transmission for eight weeks, would that be sufficient for you to recommend repeal?” he asked.

She never responded after attorneys for the state objected, saying she had already answered the question.

One thing Christ did say is that the emergency declaration isn’t primarily about preventing people from getting sick and wiping out the disease.

“The public-health emergency is really protecting our health-care system, making sure we keep as few people from getting sick or dying and having access to those resources, than it is just eradicating the disease,” she said.

Christ conceded she could not say whether a single case of coronavirus had been traced to a bar in Arizona. But she said that’s not because none has happened.

“I’m not privy to the contact tracing investigation findings,” Christ said.

Become a #ThisIsTucson member! Your contribution helps our team bring you stories that keep you connected to the community. Become a member today.