$150M in AZ airtime already booked for political ads this fall

Sick of those political ads on TV and radio?

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Nationwide, politicians and the political action committees supporting them have reserved almost $1.8 billion worth of commercial time between Labor Day and Election Day, says a new report by AdImpact, which tracks these things.

And close to $150 million of that is here in Arizona.

Most of the Arizona spending — $65 million — is being devoted to the hotly contested race for U.S. Senate, with about three-fourths of it on behalf of Democrat Ruben Gallego. AdImpact reports that Gallego himself set aside $18.3 million for TV and radio advertising from his own campaign war chest — the highest amount of any individual candidate in any Senate race in the nation.

The balance will come not just in whatever money Republican Kari Lake can raise — she is far behind Gallego in fundraising — but what outside interests spend here on both sides in an effort to influence the outcome.

That race has become one of the most highly watched as it could determine who gets control of the Senate. It is of particular importance to Democrats who hope to at least maintain their slim majority in the Senate, especially as the House is run by the GOP and the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is a potential toss-up in electoral votes.

Overall, AdImpact predicts more than $603 million will be spent on the 34 Senate races in 2024, almost $348 million of it on behalf of Democrats.

That should come as no surprise, the organization says.

“Democrats are facing an uphill climb for control of the Senate, running against a historically challenging map,’’ its new report states.

Republicans, who control 49 of the 100 seats, are poised to pick up the seat being vacated in West Virginia by Joe Manchin, “meaning they are on the precipice of a majority.’’

That means winning just one other Senate seat currently held by a Democrat — or, in the case of Arizona, by Kyrsten Sinema who reregistered from Democrat to independent — would give the GOP control.

In another development, NBC News just reported that the political action committee affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus will spend about $1.1 million in Arizona in a bid to get Gallego elected. That will be nearly $690,000 in Spanish broadcast spots, $250,000 on digital advertising and $158,000 on statewide Spanish radio ads.

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Arizona also is crucial in the presidential race.

The most recent Cook Political Report figures that nationwide, 226 electoral votes are Democratic or leaning that way, with 219 for the GOP. That leaves 93 votes at play, with 270 needed to win.

The list of toss-up states includes Arizona and its 11 electoral votes.

AdImpact says there’s nearly $40 million already reserved for ads in Arizona in the presidential race between now and Election Day.

The lion’s share of that — $34.9 million — is in support of Harris, with just $9.9 million in reservations on behalf of Trump.

That, however, is less than the $86 million the company says was spent four years ago here in the same Labor Day to Election Day period.

Then, too, Democrats outspent Republicans: $51 million to $35 million. That was just enough to have Joe Biden defeat Trump by 10,456 votes statewide.

The nearly $40 million already reserved in Arizona for presidential ads this year is dwarfed by $136 million in Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes. Trump himself, in a recent pitch in Philadelphia, said, “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the presidency.’’

The nearly $150 million estimate in total advertising spending in Arizona also includes ballot measures, though the report does not break out who has set aside funding.

Much of the spending on ballot measures is likely to be about Proposition 139, which would for the first time put a right to abortion in the Arizona Constitution. The most recent campaign finance report of Arizona for Abortion Access, covering the period through the middle of July, listed more than $9.7 million cash on hand.

By contrast, It Goes Too Far, the committee organized in opposition, had less than $400,000 cash available at the same time.