PHOENIX β Kyrsten Sinema did the only thing Friday she could to give her a possible political future: shed the Democratic label, political analysts say.
βThe clear choice that she has made here is to choose the ground of her fighting,β said Chuck Coughlin, a political consultant based in Phoenix. βAnd by avoiding a Democratic primary she has substantially chosen better ground to fight on.β
What it comes down to is whether Sinema, having taken some unpopular stances among the Democratic party base on issues like giving tax breaks to corporations, refusing to raise the federal minimum wage and scuttling voting rights legislation, had a chance in a low-turnout 2024 primary that is likely to bring out party-line voters.
βSheβs done a very good job of reading the room,β said pollster Mike Noble.
βRight now it makes sense because sheβs very vulnerable in a Democratic primary,β he continued. βSomeone could take her out because sheβs not βpure enoughβ for the party.β
And even Republican consultant Stan Barnes said while he believes Sinema is βacting on principleβ in her decision to register as a political independent, she is doing it βin a strategic way.β
βShe sees the Republican Party taken over by Trump politics,β And Sinema saw how the GOP lost statewide races in the midterms by those who have chosen that path, Barnes said.
βAt the same time, she sees the Democratic Party chasing its βwokeβ tail,β he continues. βI believe that she has the confidence to step into this no-manβs land, where no successful politician has gone before in Arizona.β
Sinema: Political switch no surprise
Sinema told Capitol Media Services sheβs not yet ready to talk about 2024, preferring to steer the conversation about what she is doing now and the issues that remain at the Capitol.
βIt wonβt surprise you to know that Iβm in the middle of it, doing the work,β she said. βAnd thatβs where Iβm going to stay focused.β
But Sinema said the decision has been a long time in coming.
βIβm not sure that this really is a surprise to the folks in Arizona,β she said.
βEveryone knows I never really fit well into any kind of political dogma or party structure,β Sinema continued. And she noted that her successful 2018 race to unseat Republican Sen. Martha McSally focused around her promise to be an βindependent voiceβ for Arizona, a move that enabled her to win the race in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats β and independents outnumber both major parties.
Sinema refused to say if she thinks she could have won a Democratic primary in 2024.
βIβm not here to talk about the next election or electoral politics,β she said. βWhat Iβve done today by registering as independent is really join the thousands of Arizonans who donβt feel theyβre represented perfectly by any political party and just want to focus on a government that gets stuff done.β
Arizonaβs GOP identity muddled
If nothing else, the announcement puts immediate pressure on Congressman Ruben Gallego to decide if heβs ready to make a run for the Senate. He has said for some time now that was a decision for 2023.
βWeβre going to, obviously, reassess that now,β he told Capitol Media Services. βBut Iβm not ready to confirm that Iβm jumping in.β
Still, Gallego, who represents portions of central and south Phoenix and the cityβs western suburbs, said that the decision by Sinema actually improves his chances of winning a 2024 statewide race.
βDemocrats have shown they can hold their base and consolidate their base to the point where we almost took every seat possible in Arizona,β he said.
βRepublicans are the people that are having problems holding their base together,β Gallego continued. And he figures that Sinema, in a three-way general election, would attract GOP voters who showed just this past month that they are not willing to support nominees who donβt have mainstream beliefs.
Barnes, for his part, said he believes that the βAmerica First phenomenonβ remains dominant within the grass roots of the state Republican Party.
βAnd because of that, the likelihood that the nominee will be that kind of person is higher than not,β he said.
What all that means said Barnes, a former GOP legislator, is the party has a βfamily fight it must go through in the next year to determine what it wants to be.β
βIf Kari Lake would have won, we would know what the Republican Party is, itβs the America First party of Arizona,β he said.
βBut Kari lost, and the U.S. Senate was lost, and the secretary of stateβs race was lost,β Barnes said, with all three GOP contenders tied close to β and endorsed by β former President Trump. βAnd so the party, in a sober way, has to look at itself and say βWhat are we, how do we win elections.ββ
And that, he said, has yet to play out.
GOP field wide open
But it isnβt just the situation and division among Republicans that will affect Sinemaβs chances in a three-way race.
βClearly, the Democrat base will be divided,β Coughlin said. He figures sheβs likely to pick up anywhere from 35% to 40% of registered Democrats.
βAnd that substantially complicates the race for the Democratic nominee,β Coughlin said.
He said the calculation that Sinema is making is that she can hang on to that 40% of her now-former party and an equal amount perhaps from Republicans disaffected with the turn the GOP has taken.
βThe magic biscuit in the basket is can she go grab 70% of unaffiliated voters,β Coughlin said. βThat feels to me like a winning coalition.β
What also is clear, he said, is the race is going to be in Maricopa County where nearly two thirds of the registered voters are located.
He figures Pima County voters will support the Democratic nominee. And most rural counties will back whoever the Republicans choose, though Coughlin said Sinema would need to at least remain competitive.
And that, in turn, requires taking the stateβs largest county by a substantial margin.
What also becomes a factor is who from the GOP gets into the race.
βIf youβre a Republican congressman, you want to be a U.S. senator,β said Barnes. He said that makes the βfirst tierβ of candidates the veterans in the House including Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs and Debbie Lesko.
βI imagine those three individuals are looking at themselves and saying, βWhat are my opportunities?ββ Barnes said.
But he said that Jim Lamon, who spent nearly $20 million β most his own cash β to come in second in this yearβs Senate GOP primary to Blake Masters, still may have an appetite for another race.
βAnd throw in Kari Lake who we know has skills and came in second (in the governorβs race) and I think the field is wide open,β Barnes said.
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who also has sided with those who believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, also is reportedly weighing a bid.
Big-money 2024 campaigns expected
Gallego acknowledged Sinemaβs 2018 playbook of winning the Senate seat by effectively distancing herself from her party affiliation.
βHer reason for being was that, βI, alone, can win this seat,β β he said. But Gallego said politics have changed in the last four years.
βDemocrats in 2022 did very well in Arizona,β he said, campaigning as Democrats. And Gallego said he believes that once Sinema saw the results she realized that 2018 tactic wouldnβt sell among Democrats in 2024.
A three-way race could prove expensive.
βI donβt think thereβs a number that you can put this on because youβre going to have three very well-financed campaigns,β Gallego said.
So far Sinema has the cash edge, with almost $7.9 million on hand as of the end of September, the most recent report available. That compares with $1.1 million in Gallegoβs campaign war chest.
But Gallego also would benefit from an anti-Sinema faction.
The Change for Arizona 2024 PAC already had raised $1.1 million in its bid to have her defeated in a Democratic primary. And the organization said in a news release Friday its goal now is to defeat Sinema βwith a real Democrat.β
Sinema said sheβs not concerned. She has a record voters can see of βdelivering results for the people of our state,β Sinema said.
βIβm good at it,β Sinema said. βIβm going to keep being good at it.β
But they told Capitol Media Services it will be no cakewalk for her, as a political independent, to hang onto the Senate seat she nabbed in 2018 from Republican Martha McSally.