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Tucson passes 2020 monsoon rainfall total; flash flood warning in effect

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People take photos in front of a flowing Rillito River at North Campbell Avenue. With the help of one downpour Monday night, this year’s monsoon rain total surpassed the sum of last year’s disappointing rainy season.

 Photos by Rebecca Sasnett, Arizona Daily Star

After a Monday deluge that saw rainfall of more than an inch in some areas, a flash-flood warning is in effect for Tucson and most of Southeastern Arizona through Wednesday evening.

“There’s certainly, we think, some increased or enhanced potential that some of the thunderstorms, should they occur, will produce areas of heavy rainfall,” said meteorologist Glenn Lader with the National Weather Service in Tucson.

A microburst over the Tucson's Foothills area was captured in a video Friday from the University of Arizona Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences. A microburst is the core of a thunderstorm that drops down in a precipitation column and produces strong wind and heavy rain, says  Mike Leuthold, the manager at the Regional Weather Modeling Program.

That potential for thunderstorms should last for the next seven to 10 days, according to Lader, likely adding to the region’s rainfall totals. After Monday’s downpour, the NWS reported Tucson had already surpassed its entire 2020 monsoon season precipitation total.

While the 2020 monsoon season saw a near-historic low in total rainfall at 1.62 inches, the official total of 0.39 inches recorded at Tucson International Airport on Monday night pushed this year’s monsoon total to 1.64 inches.

Workers from Trico Electric Cooperative begin replacing downed utility poles on West Marana Road on Tuesday morning. Areas of the town lost power during Monday night’s monsoon storm. Thunderstorms remain a possibility for the next seven to 10 days.

Following up a historically dry year with an above-average monsoon season is something with precedent. According to NWS Tucson, after the 10 driest monsoon seasons on record, six of them were followed by above-average precipitation years.

“That certainly doesn’t mean that there’s going to be rain every day or anything like that. But the overall pattern is a pretty good one,” Lader said.

A haboob dwarfs the Tucson skyline on July 10, 2021. Behind the dust: Heavy rain, winds, and lightning.

Lader also noted that it is too early to draw any conclusions about how much wetter or drier the rest of the monsoon season, which officially ends on Sept. 30, will be.

“The new outlook doesn’t come out for another few days from the Climate Prediction Center,” he said. “The official outlook for July, August, September, for that three-month period is for equal chances of above, below, or near normal precipitation.”“

<&rdpStrong>6 flash flood safety tips to help keep you safe this monsoon season</&rdpStrong>

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