Sitting on top of a car taking pictures on a phone while the sun sets during Tucson’s 4th of July Fireworks Celebration in 2022.

 Rebecca Sasnett, Arizona Daily Star

The National Weather Service says the Tucson metro area faces excessive heat over the long July 4th holiday weekend, from Saturday, July 1, through Tuesday, July 4.

And monsoon rain is likely still a few weeks away, University of Arizona climate scientist Michael Crimmins said in a UA news release Thursday, though he added that the heat does help spur its arrival.

The weather service predicts “dangerously hot conditions” and record to near-record temperatures in the metro area, including Tucson, Green Valley, Marana and Vail.

High temperatures between 107 and 112 under clear skies are predicted at Tucson International Airport, where the city’s official weather readings are recorded.

The weather service issued an excessive heat warning for Sunday and Monday and a slightly less urgent excessive heat watch for Saturday and Tuesday.

“Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities,” it says.

“If doing any outdoor activities this weekend drink plenty of water and take breaks. Remember, heat is the No. 1 weather-related killer in Arizona.”

The weather service also reminds people to “look before you lock” car doors, to make sure no children or pets are accidentally left in hot cars.

The excessive heat warning extends to a huge swath of Southern Arizona, west from Tucson to the California state line.

The monsoon season officially started on June 15 but the rain has yet to fall in the Tucson area, though there were scattered showers and thunderstorms in Cochise County Wednesday.

Climate models have predicted a late start to the rain and potentially a season that with slightly less than the 5.5-inch average rainfall for Tucson, the UA’s news release noted.

The heat is a good sign, though, for those hoping the summer storms start soon, Crimmins said.

“Moisture that fuels monsoon rain usually hitches a ride up from the south — including the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico,” the UA release said. “Soaring temperatures are usually a signal that moisture can start making its way northward.”

“Until rain arrives, wildfire risk continues to climb,” the release noted, quoting Molly Hunter, a UA fire ecologist, pointing out that the greenery that flourished after winter rain and snow in Arizona continues to dry out.

Six fires are burning about 17,000 acres in Arizona, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, UA said.

“There are a lot of ignitions right now, but not a lot of acreage burning, yet,” Hunter said. “We’re entering a critical period and can expect a lot of activity before the rain hits. Before the monsoon, we typically get a lot of lightning. It’s dry, hot and very windy. That sets up critical fire conditions.”

The National Weather Service's 2023 monsoon outlook recaps last year's weather and provides what to expect this summer.

Temperatures are rising! See what today's weather looks like.

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