October in Tucson was unusually warm, dry

October in the Old Pueblo was unusually warm and unusually dry.

And forecasts for November call for more of the same.

October 2023 will go down as the fourth-warmest and 47th-driest October for Tucson on record, according to the most recent climate report by the National Weather Service in Tucson.

Fall 2023 ranks as the warmest and 22nd driest on record, even though we’ve only gotten through two-thirds of the way through the season, the weather service here says.

A typical October sees an average temperature of 72.6 degrees, with an average low of 59 and an average high of 86.3, the agency says.

This October, all three of these figures saw an increase of at least 3.5 degrees. The average temperature was 76.5, or over 3.9 degrees warmer than normal. The average low was 62.5, or 3.5 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 90.6, or 4.3 degrees warmer than the average high, according to the weather service here.

Tucson weather records date back to 1895, or 17 years before Arizona earned its statehood.

“The monthly average temperature of 76.5° is 3.9° ABOVE normal and ranks as the 4th warmest October on record,” the report says. “Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 101° on the 6th, 16th & 20th to a low of 46° on the 30th.”

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Seven daily temperature records were set or tied this month, the weather service here says. Five of those days were record-high temperatures. On Oct. 7 and 8, the city recorded its warmest-low temperatures on record, with readings of 79 and 73 degrees, respectively.

“A new latest calendar triple-digit high date would be set on the 19th (100°) and then set again a day later on the 20th with a high of 101°,” the weather service here says. “2023 also set a new record for the number of days between the first (April 30) and last (October 20) calendar triple-digit high at 172 days.”

For November, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center believes warmer-than-normal temperatures are here to stay, placing a 56% chance on mean temperatures being above normal.

The Climate Prediction Center places “equal chances” on total precipitation here, meaning that there is an equal (33%) chance on precipitation levels being above-, below-, or near-normal.

Chris Rasmussen, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Tucson, says a dry pressure system moving north of us is cooling the area down and drying it out. He expects Tucson will see a cooling period over the next week but it won’t include much in terms of precipitation to kick off November.

He predicts low-to-near 90-degree temperatures in the beginning of the week, forecasting for highs of 93 degrees, 91 degrees and 90 degrees on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

It is expected to cool a little Wednesday. Rasmussen predicts a high of 84 degrees, then even lower on Thursday and Friday with highs expected to be 80 and 81 degrees, respectively.