A video of former President Donald Trump is played as Cassidy Hutchinson, former aide to Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, testifies as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol holds a hearing at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, June 28, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Pool via AP)
SIOUX CENTER, Iowa (AP) — Stunning new revelations about former President Donald Trump's fight to overturn the 2020 election have exposed growing political vulnerabilities just as he eyes another presidential bid.
A former White House aide this week described Trump as an unhinged leader with no regard for the safety of elected officials in either party as he clung to power on Jan. 6, 2021. The testimony from the congressional panel investigating the Capitol attack provided a roadmap for prosecutors to potentially charge Trump with a crime, some legal experts say.
Republican voters — and Trump's would-be rivals in the 2024 presidential race — took notice.
Cassidy Hutchinson tells panel Trump tried to go to Capitol on Jan 6 and did not care that rioters were armed.
Here in Iowa, the state expected to host the first presidential nominating contest in roughly 18 months, several voters signaled Thursday that they were open to another presidential candidate even if Trump were to run again. At the same time, some conservative media outlets issued scathing rebukes of the former president. Aides for multiple GOP presidential prospects also indicated, publicly and privately, that they felt increasingly emboldened to challenge Trump in 2024 following the explosive new testimony.
Keep scrolling for a ranking of the potential 2024 Republican field ... and Democrats, too
Nikki Haley, Trump's ambassador to the United Nations, drew roughly 350 conservative activists to a congressional fundraising barbecue on Thursday in Sioux County, where Trump won 82% of the vote in 2020. There was ample evidence of Trump fatigue. Interviews with a dozen attendees revealed strong interest in a 2024 alternative, even if Trump is on the ballot.
"You'd be hard-pressed to find people in this area who support the idea that people aren't looking for someone else," said Dave Van Wyk, a transportation company owner. "To presume that conservative America is 100% behind Donald Trump is simply not the case."
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, a 2024 presidential prospect, hugs Eleanor Feenstra, the mother of Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra, after headlining a fundraiser for the congressman in Sioux Center, Iowa, Thursday, June 30, 2022.
For some Republican voters, that was the feeling even before this week's stunning new testimony.
Former White House staffer Cassidy Hutchinson on Tuesday offered previously unknown details about the extent of Trump's rage in his final weeks of office, his awareness that some supporters had brought weapons to the city on Jan. 6 and his ambivalence as rioters later laid siege to the Capitol.
Upset at the size of the crowd at his "Stop the Steal" rally — many supporters avoided entering because they were armed and didn't want to go through metal detectors — Trump said words to the effect of, "I don't care that they have weapons. They're not here to hurt me," according to Hutchinson. She recalled hearing about a separate incident after the rally in which Trump tried to grab at the steering wheel of the presidential vehicle to go to the Capitol to join his supporters.
Cassidy Hutchinson, former aide to Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, testifies as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol holds a hearing at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, June 28, 2022.
That detail has caused some pushback. The agent who was driving the vehicle and another official were reportedly prepared to testify under oath that Trump never lunged for the wheel.
But the renewed concern was evident,
The conservative Washington Examiner's editorial board said Hutchinson's testimony "ought to ring the death knell" for Trump's political career. "Trump is unfit to be anywhere near power ever again."
The often Trump-friendly New York Post blasted the headline: "Tyrant Trump." And the conservative editorial page of the Wall Street Journal wrote, "Just when it seems as if Donald Trump's behavior after his 2020 loss couldn't possibly look worse, a new piece of wild testimony arrives."
To be sure, conservatives have shared serious concerns about Trump repeatedly in recent years. And in every case, the former president has emerged largely unscathed, sometimes stronger. He has been caught on video bragging about sexual assault; he instigated a violent attack on the Capitol; and he has been twice impeached.
Yet Trump is sitting on campaign funds that exceed $101 million and remains deeply popular with many Republican voters. Lest there be any question, Republican candidates from Arizona to Pennsylvania to Georgia have been battling one another this midterm season for his support.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s “Road to Majority” event, Friday, June 17, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn.
"The American people remain hungry for his leadership," Trump spokesperson Taylor Budowich said, citing Trump's strong endorsement record and fundraising success. "And as another witch hunt is blowing up in the faces of Democrats, President Trump is in a stronger position now than at anytime before."
But even before this week's revelations, a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 48% of U.S. adults say Trump should be charged with a crime for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Views on Trump's criminal liability break down predictably along party lines, with 86% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans saying Trump should be charged. Still, the fact that nearly half the country believes he should be prosecuted is a remarkable position for the former president, pointing to the difficulties he could face if he makes another run at the White House.
Meanwhile, Trump's fundraising has fallen off dramatically over the last two months. He reported raising just over $19,000 in May and June combined after taking in nearly $9 million in March and April.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, eyeing a presidential bid in 2024, says he was hearing concerns about Trump from donors and voters alike before this week's testimony, which adds to the "cumulative weight" of the former president's political shortcomings.
"People are concerned that we could lose the election in '24 and want to make sure that we don't nominate someone who would be seriously flawed," Christie said.
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who is also considering a 2024 run, said he considers Trump beatable in a GOP primary even if Republican voters aren't paying close attention to the congressional hearings, as he suspects.
"His approval among Republican primary voters has already been somewhat diminished," Hogan said in an interview. "Trump was the least popular president in American history until Joe Biden."
Aides for other Republican presidential prospects said privately this week that Trump may still be the overwhelming favorite to win the next GOP presidential nomination, but they believe his standing with Republican voters has been in steady decline. There was a broad sense — or at least a hope — that Hutchinson's testimony would accelerate that decline among voters and donors in a way that would open opportunities for others.
Marc Short, a senior adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence, another likely 2024 presidential contender, was blunt when asked about Trump's political strength.
"Republican activists believed Donald Trump was the only candidate who could beat Hillary," Short said. "Now, the dynamic is reversed. He is the only one who has lost to Joe Biden."
Indeed, Trump's would-be Republican competitors are leaning in.
Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, who serves on the Jan. 6 commission and has not ruled out a 2024 presidential bid, cast Trump as a direct threat to American democracy in a Wednesday night speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
"Republicans cannot both be loyal to Donald Trump and loyal to the Constitution. We must choose," she said.
Haley, who has said she would not seek the 2024 GOP nomination if Trump ran, declined to say Thursday whether the testimony has given her reason to rethink that plan. Instead, she sounded an upbeat note.
"If it looks like there's a place for me next year, I've never lost a race, I'm not going to start now," Haley told reporters. "I'll put 1,000% in and I'll finish it. And if there's not a place for me, I will fight for this country until my last breath."
Farmer Bob de Koning said he remains devoted to Trump. He plans to support him in Iowa's leadoff caucuses no matter who runs.
But his wife, Kathy de Koning, said, "We can do better."
"I just don't know if he's electable anymore," she said.
Ranking the 2024 Republican field
10. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas
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10. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas: I wrestled with who should get the final spot on the list -- considering Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley among others. I eventually settled on Cotton because a) I think he is the smartest politician of that group b) he represents the sort of muscular conservatism that I think very much would appeal to Trump voters if the former President isn't in the race and c) he will outwork almost any one else in the race. Cotton's challenges are clear: He would have to prove he could raise money to be competitive and he would have lots of work to do to raise his name identification among GOP base voters.
9. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida
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9. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida: Scott has been perennially underestimated in his political career. First, people said that he couldn't win the governorship. He served two terms in the job. Then they said he couldn't get elected to the Senate; he knocked off longtime Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson to do just that in 2018. Scott's ambitions are clearly national in scope; his decision to release a policy agenda that he wants to implement if Republicans retake control of the Senate in 2023 is proof of that.
8. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin
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8. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin: Two things are true about the Virginia governor: 1) He was just elected to his first public office in 2021 and 2) He is term limited out of that job in 2025. That second point means that Youngkin, necessarily, is already keeping one eye on his future. His successful win in Virginia in 2021 was widely touted as evidence that the GOP can keep the Trump base of the party happy while also appealing to critical swing, suburban voters. I tend to think Youngkin is more VP material in the end but the success and notoriety derived from his 2021 campaign means he can't be ignored if he goes for the top job.
7. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
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7. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott: While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis gets the most 2024 buzz among the Republican state executives -- more on that below -- Abbott has effectively used his perch as the top elected official in Texas to position himself for a presidential race as well. Abbott has been open about his interest in the race -- "We'll see what happens," he said in the wake of the 2020 election -- but has to win his reelection bid against former Rep. Beto O'Rourke first.
6. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley
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6. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley: You can count on one hand the number of high-profile Trump appointees who left the administration on good terms with the former president. Haley, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, is one of them. "She's done a fantastic job and we've done a fantastic job together," Trump said when Haley left in 2018. "We've solved a lot of problems and we're in the process of solving a lot of problems." But, Haley has also publicly flip-flopped on Trump; she was openly critical of him in the aftermath of the January 6 riot at the US Capitol before falling in line behind him once it became clear that the party's base didn't view January 6 as disqualifying for the former president.
5. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas
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5. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas: Don't forget that the Texas senator was the runner-up to Trump in the 2016 presidential race. And that, after a rocky relationship with Trump during the fall of 2016, Cruz has gone out of his way to make nice with the man who suggested his father might have been involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Cruz's stronger-than-expected 2016 run should not be discounted -- he has organizations in early states and a national fundraising base that is unmatched by those below him on this list.
4. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina
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4. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina: Like a number of people on this list, it's hard to imagine the South Carolina Senator running for president if Trump is in the field. (Scott is on record as saying he would back a Trump 2024 campaign.) But, in a Trump-less field, Scott is deeply intriguing: He is the first Black senator elected from the Deep South since Reconstruction and the first Black Republican to serve in the Senate since 1979. He's built a reliably conservative (and pro Trump) record during his nine years in the Senate while showing a willingness to work across the aisle when possible. If Republicans decide they need a new face to lead their party, Scott is at the front of that line.
3. Former Vice President Mike Pence
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3. Former Vice President Mike Pence: I really struggled on where the former vice president belonged on this list. On the one hand, he has been disowned by Trump (and the former president's loyalists) for refusing to overturn the 2020 electoral college results. On the other, Pence has tons of residual name identification from his four years as vice president and retains a solid base of support among religious conservatives. The New York Times reported last month that Pence is trying to edge away from Trump as he considers running in 2024. That's going to be a very delicate dance.
2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
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2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: There's a clear gap between the Florida governor and the rest of the Republican field not named "Donald Trump." DeSantis even managed to beat out the former President in a straw poll conducted at a Colorado conservative political conference over the weekend. DeSantis can't take his eye off the ball -- he is running for a second term this fall -- but he has, to date, very effectively used his day job as a way to boost his national profile.
1. Former President Donald Trump
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1. Former President Donald Trump: If you want to find cracks in the Trump foundation, you can do it; his endorsed candidates in governor's races in places like Georgia, Nebraska and Idaho lost primaries earlier this year. But, that would miss the forest for the trees. The simple fact is that Trump remains the prime mover in Republican Party politics.
Ranking the 2024 Democratic field
10. Chris Murphy
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10. Chris Murphy: The Connecticut senator is at the center of negotiations for a new legislation on guns in the wake of the mass school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. He is also an articulate voice on liberal policy, but by no means a strict ideologue. "He seems to understand that politics is the art of accomplishing the possible, not merely aiming for the impossible and blaming the opposition," wrote political analyst Stu Rothenberg in a column earlier this month that speculated about what's next for Murphy. Murphy isn't receiving much attention as a potential 2024 candidate, but I think he would be an intriguing one if he did decide to run.
9. Roy Cooper
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9. Roy Cooper: Getting elected -- and re-elected -- as a Democrat in North Carolina is no simple thing to do. But that's exactly what Cooper has done. And there is a template for a southern governor (Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) to run for and win the White House. As The New York Times noted in a story late last year, Cooper has a record that could appeal to Democratic primary voters: He helped repeal a bill that required people at government-run facilities to use bathrooms that corresponded to the gender on their birth certificate. He has also issued executive orders on paid parental leave and carbon neutrality. Cooper's biggest issue in a 2024 race? He isn't well known nationally. At all.
8. Cory Booker
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8. Cory Booker: The New Jersey senator's 2020 presidential campaign never really got out of the starting blocks. But many of the things that made Booker appealing on paper in 2020 remain true: He is a charismatic and articulate politician with a healthy dose of star power. Plus, having run and lost once for the Democratic nomination, he is likely to be wiser about a bid the second time around. Of course, the fact that Booker's last effort was unsuccessful raises the question of "why,? which Booker would have to answer in order to gain traction in a subsequent race.
7. Amy Klobuchar
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7. Amy Klobuchar: Unlike Booker, the Minnesota senator did have a moment in the 2020 race. In the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary, she looked like the momentum candidate and looked like she had a chance to pull of an upset win. She wound up finishing third, behind Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Less than a month later, she was out of the race and throwing her support to Biden. The way she ran -- and the way she ended her campaign -- earned Klobuchar kudos, which could be useful if she runs again in 2024.
6. Elizabeth Warren
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6. Elizabeth Warren: My eyebrows were raised when Warren took to the pages of The New York Times in April with an op-ed entitled: "Democrats Can Avoid Disaster in November." Her argument was that Democrats needed to pass as much of their agenda as possible before November and that voters would reward them for doing so. Which, well, questionable. The op-ed included these lines: "Despite pandemic relief, infrastructure investments and the historic Supreme Court confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson, we promised more -- and voters remember those promises." Whoa! That sort of language puts Warren in a position to say "I told you so" if Democrats, as expected, get clobbered at the polls in 2022. And could serve as a launching pad for a second bid for the White House.
5. Gavin Newsom
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5. Gavin Newsom: A funny thing happened when Republicans in California tried to recall Newsom as governor: it made him much, much stronger. Newsom not only easily defeated the 2021 recall effort, but is now a huge favorite to win a second term this November. That recall effort also gave Newsom massive amounts of national exposure to the donor and activist class, which would come in handy if he decided to run in 2024. Newsom, at least at the moment, is playing coy. "It's not even on my radar," he told the San Francisco Chronicle in May of a potential presidential bid. Which, fine. But Newsom has always had BIG ambitions.
4. Pete Buttigieg
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4. Pete Buttigieg: When Buttigieg, the breakout star of the 2020 Democratic presidential race, took the job as secretary of Transportation in the Biden administration, many observers wondered why. After all, it isn't the sort of lofty perch that positions like Attorney General or Secretary of State are. But Buttigieg has proven his doubters wrong, emerging as the face of the decidedly popular infrastructure bill. It turns out that doling out federal dollars for local projects is a very good way to build goodwill. Buttigieg is among the most natural politicians in the Democratic Party and, at age 40, can afford to wait if the 2024 or even 2028 field doesn't look promising for him.
3. Bernie Sanders
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3. Bernie Sanders: Most people assumed that the 2020 presidential race would be the Vermont senator's last. After all, he's now 80 years old, and with two unsuccessful national bids behind him, it seemed that Sanders was likely to ride into the political sunset. Nope! "In the event of an open 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Sanders has not ruled out another run for president, so we advise that you answer any questions about 2024 with that in mind," wrote Sanders adviser Faiz Shakir in a memo to allies in April. While Sanders has ruled out challenging Biden in a 2024 Democratic primary, it's easy to see him consider another run if Biden bows out. And Sanders remains the best-known -- and most well-liked -- candidate among liberals in the country.
2. Kamala Harris
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2. Kamala Harris: The vice president appears to have steadied the ship somewhat after a decidedly rocky first year-plus in office. While Harris' political stock has taken a major hit, she would still start an open 2024 Democratic race as the frontrunner, thanks in large part to her support from Black voters. While she would start as the favorite, it's still hard to see Harris clearing the field after her struggles, so far, as Biden's second-in-command.
1. Joe Biden
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1. Joe Biden: There's zero question that Biden is in bad political shape at the moment -- approval ratings in the high 30s, gas at $5 a gallon, inflation the highest it has been in 40 years. There's also zero question that if Biden decides he wants to run for a second term, he will almost certainly be the party's nominee -- and probably won't have to fight all that hard for it. It's an open question as to whether that is the best thing for Democrats nationally.
