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Jean Kennedy Smith, 1941

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Jean Kennedy Smith, 1960

Jean Kennedy Smith, 1960

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Jean Kennedy Smith, 2010

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Jean Kennedy Smith, 1961

Arizona, Pima County set records — again — for weekly rise in COVID-19 cases

As the pandemic’s status in Arizona continues to capture nationwide attention, the virus’s spread broke records by several metrics. Both Arizona and Pima County set another record for week-to-week increases in coronavirus cases.

New, confirmed cases in Arizona totaled 11,665 from June 7 to June 13, according to data published as of Friday by the Arizona Department of Health Services. It was an increase of 3,962 from the week before, up about 51%.

In Pima County, cases totaled 1,129 over the same period, an increase of 366, or 48%, from the week before.

These totals may still be incomplete due to reporting lags. It generally takes four to seven days to report new test results. In the week of June 7-13, however, 572 cases were reported statewide from tests conducted from May 31 to June 6, accounting for a 7% backfill, as of Friday. And 98 cases were reported countywide from tests conducted between May 31 to June 6, accounting for a 13% backfill.

On multiple days this past week, record numbers of cases were also reported to the state.

And the state will likely continue to surpass these single-day records, said Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor with the University of Arizona’s Zuckerman College of Public Health.

“For the next 10 to 14 days, it’s going to be just more of the same,” he said.

Mask-wearing requirements might change the trajectory of the outbreak.

It will take about two weeks to find out, he said, adding that July 1 will be the first opportunity to see a change in the data.

On Wednesday, Gov. Doug Ducey allowed cities and counties to set their own mask-wearing requirements to curb the spread of the coronavirus. And on Friday, Pima County supervisors approved such a requirement, superseding one enacted by Tucson Mayor Regina Romero the day before.

Effective immediately, the Pima County ordinance says all people age 5 and over are required to wear face coverings when they’re in public and can’t easily maintain a continuous distance of at least 6 feet from other people. It applies countywide, including incorporated areas of Tucson, Marana, Oro Valley and Sahuarita. There are certain exemptions, but there is no civil or criminal penalty for not wearing a mask.

In Phoenix, which also requires masks, refusal to wear one could bring a $250 fine.

Gerald’s analysis of hospital-capacity data shows Arizona reaching zero available beds around July 16, he said. But he added that there is enough time for the mask-wearing requirements to change the time when Arizona may reach what would be its “normal” hospital capacity.

Arizona has more beds available beyond that capacity through its additional surge plan. The state health department is watching hospital bed capacity and has plans to open sites with more beds, if needed.

Gerald cautions, however, that once normal capacity is exceeded, the level of care is not equivalent in these surge settings.

“Patients will be admitted to jury-rigged settings, treated with second-line agents owing to shortages of critical resources, and cared for by nurses and physicians recruited from noncritical specialties,” he wrote on May 12 in his weekly report to public-health officials across the state and fellow public-health faculty at Arizona State University and the University of Arizona.

On Thursday, inpatient bed capacity was at 85% statewide, while ICU beds were at 84% capacity, according to ADHS data.

Since Ducey let his stay-home order expire on May 16, the use of ordinary inpatient hospital beds has risen by 10% and the use of ICU beds has risen by 11%.

There is a difference, however, between the number of licensed beds reported by the state health department and the number of available beds that are actually staffed, said Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association and former state health director.

“What none of us know is what the real capacity limit is because that’s tied to what’s staffed,” he said.

Some hospitals are already nearing capacity.

“While we continue to have some capacity in our hospitals, we are seeing an increased census in our ICUs and in patients requiring ventilation,” Veronica Apodaca, director of marketing for Northwest Medical Center, 6200 N. La Cholla Blvd., and Oro Valley Hospital, 1551 E. Tangerine Road, wrote in an email.

In preparing for a surge, these two hospitals have added more staff and stocked up on additional supplies, she wrote.

“We are seeing an increase in COVID-19 patients in our hospitals, including receiving a significant number of patients from other parts of the state through the Arizona Surge Line,” which is a 24/7 phone line for providers, like hospitals, to call when they can’t provide a coronavirus patient with an appropriate level of care.

The number of available, staffed ICU beds in Pima County has decreased every day this past week, said Dr. Francisco Garcia, Pima County’s chief medical officer.

“And so, yes, we have ICU beds available today, but they are a handful. And they are not in every single hospital. So absolutely we should be very concerned,” Garcia said.

If a catastrophic event were to happen, like a plane crash, patients would have to sent out of Pima County, Garcia said.

“I don’t believe that we would have the ICU beds for that kind of mass casualty event,” he said.

Gerald said he hopes mask-wearing requirements curb the outbreak, but a large percentage of the public will need to follow the rules for it to work, he said. If 80% of people “mask up” in public, he’ll be “cautiously optimistic.”

At the Pima County supervisors’ emergency meeting Friday, County Administrator Chuck Huckelberry cited research that widespread mask wearing could reduce virus death rates by about 15% to 45%.

During this second resurgence of cases, Gerald hasn’t yet seen a clear change in deaths.

This is because it takes 14 to 15 days on average for a case to convert into a death, he said. And reporting lags are considerably longer for deaths than for cases.

The ADHS doesn’t publish data on deaths at the county level, but the Pima County Health Department published a report last week showing an uptick in deaths from six the first week in June to 17 in the second week of June.

“That’s super-significant,” Garcia said. “I have every reason to believe that this is a number that’s also going to start to grow.”

Father, son cook meals for the homeless; 'It's the most important thing we can do right now'

It’s 8:30 a.m. and David Urbaniak and his son Shane are preparing large trays of pasta, baking chicken and sautéing vegetables over an industrial stove. They work quickly and harmoniously as dozens of people line up to receive a hot meal.

For five years, the father-son duo have volunteered in the kitchen at the Z Mansion, a popular Downtown Tucson wedding venue that also serves as a soup kitchen for the homeless. Now, in the middle of the pandemic, David and Shane say the call to serve is louder than ever.

“When the pandemic began, we knew there was the potential that we could be exposed to the virus by continuing to volunteer. It was definitely something we talked about as a family, but we ultimately decided that this is just the most important thing that we can do right now,” said 43-year-old David. “We feed between 200 and 300 people every week. That’s really important.”

In addition to their full-time jobs as a Realtor and a line cook, respectively, David and Shane volunteer three days a week and cook everything from oatmeal and vegetables to beef and beans. They rely on donations from community members and local restaurants to decide what they’re going to make each day.

“In an ideal world, this shouldn’t be needed at all,” Shane said. “There shouldn’t be people having to come together to feed the homeless, but that’s the reality and it’s crucial. For a lot of people, it’s the only food that they get, period.”

Shane, 18, said he wouldn’t want to be doing anything else with his spare time and is especially glad that he gets to do it with his dad.

Although numbers have decreased through the pandemic, they cook for around 60 people on Tuesdays and Thursdays and around 120 people on Sundays. The volunteers also provide food and medical services to homeless individuals who are sick, medically compromised or who have been exposed to the coronavirus. The owners have set up 30 tents on the premises for sick individuals to stay and recover.

About half of the individuals staying at the Z Mansion are showing symptoms of COVID-19, David said.

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“We don’t know that we’ve officially ever come in contact with anyone who’s tested positive,” he said. “But we are willing take that risk. I think it’s just about empathy. We think about others before ourselves. There are a lot of families and people who don’t have basic necessities to survive normally, let alone during a pandemic.”

Since the pandemic started, the volunteers say a lot has changed. They don’t get to interact with other volunteers or with the homeless community as much as they would like. But David said the owners of the Z Mansion, Thomas and Emmeline Hill, were ahead of the curve when it came to protecting the homeless community and the volunteers.

They wear protective gear such as masks, gloves, face shields and coats. University of Arizona medical students help pass out food trays, drinks and masks to the homeless while also screening people for potential symptoms and medical conditions.

With the majority of Z Mansion volunteers being over the age of 65, they also saw a significant decrease in the number of people who were able to help during the pandemic. At the beginning, David and Shane said there were days when they were doing most of the work on their own.

Even with new challenges, however, the father and son said they’ve seen people rally together for the homeless community during this particularly difficult time. Shane recalled a time recently when they were completely out of food and needed to act quickly.

“There was one day where we had an empty fridge. We didn’t have any produce. And we really didn’t know what we were going to do,” he said. “But we have an email group with all of the volunteers. And all it took was one email and tons of volunteers donated enough food to stock us up for a month. It was incredible.”

For Z Mansion co-owner Emmeline Hill, who helped envision a business that would give back to the homeless over 20 years ago, having consistent volunteers is one of the most important parts of daily operations. She said David and Shane have been an irreplaceable part of the team for the last five years.

“They’re priceless because they will literally do anything to help,” she said.

As cases of coronavirus continue to rise in Arizona, David and Shane said they will continue to dedicate their time. David said the homeless need these services now more than ever.

“It’s definitely been stressful for them with the shutdown, having a curfew, dealing with protests and the increased policing of the area,” he said. “One thing that’s always hard is police who don’t have training in dealing with homeless people who might have addiction or post-traumatic stress disorder. These people are concerned about these things everyday — where they’re going to get their next meal, what would happen if they were caught after curfew and things like that.”

David and Shane said they hope as the pandemic continues that the homeless community is not forgotten.

“As virus numbers continue to rise, my biggest concern is that when we do start taking this seriously that it will cause us to become more selfish and look to protect just our own small circle,” David said. “If we stop looking out for each other, the people who really have it tough will simply not survive.”