PHOENIX — State lawmakers return to the Capitol Monday with the desire to do something to try to make sure there's enough water for everyone who wants it.
But there is a deep schism in how to do that which remains to be bridged.
Republicans who lead the Legislature, backed by developers and some agricultural interests, are determined to have as little state regulation as possible and allow those affected to work out the problems on their own.
Senate President Warren Petersen says there's no need for state action. In fact, he contends there is plenty of water if the state simply gets out of the way and lets homebuilders make their own deals with farmers for their water.
But Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs says protecting the state's groundwater supply is a complex issue.
Hobbs says she's willing to work toward a compromise.
At the same time, however, the governor's administration already is moving toward having the state impose solutions. And that is raising the ire of GOP leaders as the 2025 legislative session begins.
Groundwater pumping
All this comes amid realization that Arizona's historic 1980 Groundwater Code only goes so far.
It requires that those who want to develop within one of the state's "active management areas,'' including Phoenix and Tucson, prove there is a 100-year supply of water.
That leaves much of Arizona in the proverbial Wild West, with few rules — and essentially governed by the philosophy that whoever has the longest straw can take all the groundwater they want.
There is the option for area residents to create their own active management area to curtail pumping. That's what happened in the Douglas basin in 2022 in the first-ever local use of that power.
But when voters in the Willcox area refused to go along, the Arizona Department of Water Resources stepped in last year and created an AMA itself. Doing nothing, state water officials said, would have meant the water supply for residents would keep depleting while the ground itself was collapsing due to pumping.
It was the first time the state used its power to create a new management area without local approval since the 1980 law established the first five AMAs.
That action runs afoul of GOP goals to ensure such decisions are made at the local level. Republican senators put out a position statement saying they want "ground-up solutions from rural Arizona and (to) not force old broken policies from the state level.''
Hobbs offers no apologies.
"I'm committed to a legislative solution,'' she said. "But that if we can't get there, then I'll take action. And I did. And I'll continue to use the tools that we have.''
"Ag to urban"
The state water agency, with Hobbs' blessing, is doing exactly that with an "ag-to-urban'' approach, a plan to convert water now used for farming — which makes up about 70% of all water use in Arizona — for housing.
Lawmakers had approved their own plan last year. But it met with a gubernatorial veto as Hobbs said it needed work to "ensure that the water conservation savings and consumer protections are guaranteed.''
That, however, isn't keeping the administration from pushing through its own plan — sans legislative approval — with gubernatorial spokesman Christian Slater saying Hobbs "is committed to taking action where the Legislature won't secure our water future.''
Still, any plan would remain voluntary, with no mandate for farmers to sell.
100-year supplies
There's a related problem occurring in the Buckeye and Queen Creek areas on the outer edges of Maricopa County.
The Department of Water Resources refused to issue permits necessary for new homebuilding there after finding through studies that developers can't show they can meet the requirement for a 100-year water supply.
"If we were to approve new applications with unmet demand, some other homeowner who's relying on that underground water could be shorted in water sometime in the future,'' said ADWR Director Tom Buschatzke.
The Hobbs administration has proposed a work-around of sorts, one that would allow homebuilding to occur — but with a requirement that developers acquire a renewable water source and then reduce groundwater pumping by 25%.
Homebuilders remain unsatisfied, saying the requirement places an unfair burden on them and further raises the cost of housing — another issue again front and center at the Capitol.
Housing affordability
Lawmakers and the governor reached agreement last year on some proposals they argue will make housing more affordable. Those include allowing duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes and townhomes in some areas now zoned for single-family homes; and permitting the conversion of defunct malls and other commercial properties into residential use.
Another new state law will require cities to allow homeowners to construct up to two "casitas'' on their properties that can be rented out to others.
But proponents say more is needed, including what they have called the "Arizona Starter Home Act.'' That proposed legislation is expected to come back this legislative session.
Its far-reaching provisions include barring cities from establishing minimum square footage or dimensions for a single-family home; limiting setback requirements; and prohibiting the requirement of any design, architectural or aesthetic elements except for homes in neighborhoods designated as historic.
The measure also would eliminate cities' authority to require establishment of homeowners' associations and to mandate features such as turf, screening, walls, fences or private roads.
Hobbs, in nixing the 2024 proposal, sided with various cities who said that would overrule their right to control development, calling the plan "an experiment with unclear outcomes.'' But supporters say that ignores the rights of those who own properties to develop them as they see fit.
Some GOP lawmakers want to impose hard-and-fast deadlines on cities to approve building permits, arguing that delays are driving up costs.
Voting laws
Another big debate is going to be over the issue of voting.
There has been at least one bill introduced seeking to assert state control over voting in federal elections.
That is designed to override the National Voter Registration Act, which says individuals can register to vote in federal elections — votes for president and Congress members — simply by signing a statement attesting they are citizens and legally allowed to cast a ballot. By contrast, Arizona law requires "documented proof of citizenship'' to vote in state and local races.
There are approximately 45,000 such "federal-only'' voters registered in Arizona, though there is no estimate of how many actually cast ballots in the last election. There are claims, all unproven, that the option has allowed noncitizens to vote and to affect the outcomes of races.
But the Secretary of State's Office said the federal form is more likely to be used by college students who may be away at school, the elderly and Native Americans who may not have easy access to birth certificates or other documents to prove citizenship.
There's also a bill to allow county recorders to put a registered voters into "inactive'' status if there is "reasonable cause'' to believe the person registered fraudulently or the information is incorrect. But the measure does not define what constitutes "reasonable cause.''
The bigger fight is likely to occur over whether to curb the right of Arizonans to drop off their early ballots at polling places on Election Day.
Arizona has allowed no-excuse early voting since 1991. It has proven incredibly popular, with about 85% of the votes cast in November being on early ballots.
But close to 10% of those early ballots were dropped off at polling locations on Election Day.
The problem with that is they can't be dealt with until the actual live ballots cast there are handled. There's also the fact that election officials can't even open those "late-early'' envelopes until the signatures on the outside are verified, also after other counting is done.
Petersen already has written legislation to move the deadline to drop off early ballots in person to 7 p.m. the Friday before the election. People still could bring in early ballots after that — but only if they provide identification, something already required of those who vote in person, to allow the early ballot to be instantly verified.
The plan is modeled after a similar law in Florida.
Hobbs already is signaling a veto.
"My line in the sand has been and will continue to be if you make it harder for Arizonans to continue to cast their ballot, that's a 'no' for me,'' she said.
Money for schools
One other big issue lawmakers have to address deals with money and education.
In 2016 voters approved Proposition 123. It settled a long-running lawsuit over education funding without raising taxes, by providing more money for schools by increasing the amount that can be withdrawn each year from the state land trust.
Only thing is, authorization expires this year. And unless renewed by voters — which likely would require a special election — the extra withdrawals would cease. That means either cutting state education spending by about $300 million or finding the money elsewhere in the state budget.
There is some consensus the funding should be renewed. But it is complicated by calculations of how much the state can continue to withdraw from the trust fund without undermining its stability.
The current rate of withdrawal is 6.9% of the "corpus'' of the trust, a figure being embraced by some Republicans who want to continue the program. But Republican state Treasurer Kimberly Yee said her projections show that would result in reducing the size of the trust, which she said would be unsustainable and could undermine future earnings and distributions.
Her proposal is in the 4-5% range.
Hobbs has an even more aggressive plan for the extension. She wants to boost the annual withdrawal to 8.9%, something she said would increase pay for teachers and support staff as well as put aside money for safety and security improvements
Yee called that "unfeasible,'' saying that over the last decade there have been only 32 months with a 10-year return more than that figure.
Hobbs dismissed Yee's concerns. She said Jeff DeWit, who was state treasurer a decade ago when Prop. 123 was first proposed, made the same dire predictions "and the trust is healthier than ever.''
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs talked about the state's environmental future and her plans to focus on water usage during Tucson Metro Chamber's State of the State event at the Tucson Convention Center on Tuesday, Jan. 10. Video by Pascal Albright / Arizona Daily Star
