Nearly half of Arizonans polled say abortion support depends on variables

A vast majority of Arizonans believe abortion should be legal in at least certain circumstances, a new poll indicates.

But whether that’s enough to secure voter approval of a ballot measure in November to enshrine the right to terminate a pregnancy in the Arizona Constitution remains uncertain. And the key variable is what those circumstances could be.

The survey by Noble Predictive Insights conducted last month found 40% of registered voters questioned say they believe the procedure should be legal under any circumstances. They included 19% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats and 41% of independents surveyed.

At the other extreme, it found 11% said they believe abortions should not be allowed at any time, including 18% of Republicans, 5% of Democrats and 8% of unaffiliated voters questioned.

That leaves 49% in the middle. Where they land on the yes-no spectrum — and how they will vote in November — could come down to the exceptions that would be allowed under any ban.

At one extreme, 85% of the middle group said they support abortion in cases of endangerment to the mother’s life.

That is the one exception built into the state’s 1864 near-total ban on abortion that the Arizona Supreme Court ruled in April is enforceable, though the justices have delayed enforcement for at least three months. The Legislature has since voted to repeal the territorial-era law, but the repeal won’t take effect for months. In the interim, and going forward, Arizona operates under a law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with no exceptions for rape or incest.

Of those surveyed who fall into the middle group, 82% said they would support a law that allows abortion if a pregnancy is the result of rape, and 78% expressed the same views in cases of incest.

But support dropped to 57% if the issue is allowing abortion in cases where a baby is likely to have severe disabilities or health problems.

Potentially more significant is the calendar.

The proposed initiative to enshrine the right of abortion into the Arizona Constitution would allow termination of a pregnancy for any reason up to the point of fetal viability, generally considered between 22 and 24 weeks. But of those surveyed who said their support for abortion is dependent on circumstances, just 9% told the pollster they are comfortable at that point.

That could be barely enough to push the measure over the top when combined with the 40% of Arizonans who, according to the survey, want no state restrictions on the procedure.

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By contrast, 43% of those in the middle said they are willing to support the right to terminate a pregnancy — but only up to 15 weeks, the current Arizona law.

More problematic for proponents could be arguments by foes of the initiative that, as worded, it would allow a pregnancy to be terminated at any point. That is based on language in the measure that would allow abortion after fetal viability “that, in the good faith judgment of a treating health care professional, is necessary to protect the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant individual.’’

A group that has formed to battle the ballot measure, calling itself It Goes Too Far, is focusing on that section to try to convince voters to reject the initiative.

Of the 49% of Arizonans surveyed who said they could support abortion rights under some circumstances, just 1% said they would agree to an abortion beyond 24 weeks.

Beyond potential votes for or against the initiative itself, there’s a separate question of how much candidates views on abortion will affect a voter’s support for them.

More than 50% of the 1,003 individuals questioned in the new survey said a candidate’s position on abortion is at least somewhat impactful on how they feel about a candidate, said David Byler, the chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights.

But fewer than a third of those who responded listed abortion as one of the top three issues facing the state. And only one in eight identified it as being the top issue on their minds.

Immigration was No. 1 on the list of the most important issue for 22% of those asked, followed by inflation at 19%. After abortion at 12%, farther back were health care at 7%, education at 4%, and taxes and unemployment at 3% each.

“Voters say that abortion will influence their vote,’’ Byler said. “But so will inflation, immigration, housing, and so many issues. Both sides have strong messages on different issues. And that’s why it’s such a competitive election.’’

The online, opt-in survey, weighted to reflect demographics, has a potential margin of error of 3.1%.