PHOENIX — Republican state lawmakers are moving to have the state conduct its own census in 2030 — but one that would count only those who are U.S. citizens.
Sen. Jake Hoffman acknowledged at least part of the reason he's pushing it is political: He believes it will allow the state to draw up legislative districts in a way that will mean more power for Republicans and less for Democrats.
Several Democratic lawmakers say a second census would lead to confusion, inaccuracy and fear that will discourage "mixed status'' families of citizens and non-citizens from answering questions from people who show up at their doors.
But Hoffman, a Queen Creek Republican, pushed the measure through the Republican-controlled Senate on Tuesday; it goes next to the GOP-controlled House. He said it's a matter of accuracy.
Hoffman
"The 20-plus million illegal aliens who invaded this country ... are not citizens,'' Hoffman said. "They should be deported and sent back.''
Pew Research Center said the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. hit a peak of 14 million in 2023 and likely decreased in 2025.
The Migration Policy Institute's 2023 estimate put the figure at 307,000 for Arizona.
Under Hoffman's legislation, they would not be taken into account when dividing up the state into its 30 legislative districts.
By law, the Independent Redistricting Committee is required to create districts of approximately equal population. It uses figures from the decennial count by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Republican President Donald Trump, during his first term, sought to have a citizenship question included in that count. But his plan was sidelined when the U.S. Supreme Court concluded that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross lied about why he wanted that information.
So the census was conducted without the question. Congressional and legislative lines were drawn with the full population, citizen, permanent resident or undocumented — or at least what the agency reported.
Nothing in Hoffman's bill would affect how many more seats Arizona gets in the U.S. House, as that would still be determined by official Census Bureau numbers. Arizona currently has nine representatives; preliminary estimates say the state will pick up at least one more after 2030.
But a citizen-only count would affect how the 30 legislative districts in Arizona, a fixed number that does not change, are drawn up. Put simply, it would mean areas with a large population of non-citizens — whether here legally or not — would lose population, meaning districts would have to be redrawn to be geographically larger to take in more residents.
And that would have the effect of making remaining districts, composed largely of citizens, geographically smaller, a move Hoffman believes would mean more opportunities to elect Republicans.
Even small changes could make a difference.
The GOP does have an edge in both legislative chambers. But its margins are not large, with 17 of 30 senators being Republicans; the House is 33-27 Republican.
Those margins have been closer in the past. In fact, Democrats controlled the Arizona Senate for two years in the 1990s; a subsequent Senate was split 15-15 in the 2000 election.
The Arizona House, by contrast, has not been run by Democrats since 1964.
Hoffman said it's no surprise Democrats are opposed to his plan.
"They like when illegal aliens are included for the purpose of apportionment,'' he said. "It gives them undue representation that they otherwise are not owed if we were only counting U.S. citizens.''
But Senate Minority Leader Priya Sundareshan, a Tucson Democrat, said it is the Republicans who are playing politics.
She said the Census Bureau already is doing the work.
"I can't believe we want to waste millions of dollars in this state just so you can have your own count that's separate from that already conducted by the federal government so that you can draw legislative districts differently and stack them the way you'd want,'' she said. One estimate puts the price tag at $50 million.
Phoenix Democratic Sen. Analise Ortiz said there's a more practical problem: accuracy.
She said when the U.S. Census Bureau was considering adding a citizenship question to the 2020 census, a report found the change would have decreased the voluntary self-response overall by 2% — and that of mixed-status families by 8%. Doing that in Arizona, Ortiz said, means the citizens in those households are going to be undercounted "out of fear.''
"This is nothing more than a Republican driven and funded door-to-door 'show me your papers' campaign,'' Ortiz said.
That's not her only concern.
"This language would allow the Legislature to designate any untrained, unqualified person to go door-to-door, demanding proof that someone is a citizen,'' Ortiz said. "What could go wrong?"
The measure is written in a way that it could not be vetoed by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs who, less than a week ago, quashed another GOP measure requiring hospitals that accept Medicaid payments to ask patients their immigration status. Instead the census resolution, SCR1031, would go on the November ballot if it is approved by the Republican-controlled House.
