There is no path to victory for Kari Lake to become Arizona's next U.S. senator, an analysis by Capitol Media Services finds.Β
As of Monday afternoon there were fewer than 76,000 votes still to be tallied in four counties where Lake, the Republican contender, has outpolled Democrat Ruben Gallego. At the same time, Gallego was leading Lake by more than 69,000 votes statewide.Β
Theoretically, Lake could catch up if she got pretty much every single one ofΒ the uncountedΒ votes in the four counties she's been winning, Cochise, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma counties. But even in Yavapai County, which among those probably has the largest GOP-voter margin, Lake was getting fewer than two out of every three votes.
The other side of the equation is that the largest collection of untallied votes was in Maricopa County, where more than 84,000 votes had yet to be tallied, while more than 2 million had been counted. As of Monday afternoon, Gallego had received slightly more than a million votes there, against about 911,000 for Lake.
GallegoΒ
Put another way, for every nineΒ votes coming in for Lake, Gallego was getting 10.
That disparity showed up in even greater form in heavily Democratic Pima County. There, election officials said Monday they still had nearly 63,000 ballots not yet counted.
Of the more than 461,000 that have been tallied in Pima County, for every two votes that Lake got, Gallego picked up three.
Other races still in limbo
Some other races, meanwhile, remained too close to call Monday afternoon:
β’Β Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani saw his narrow lead grow Monday over Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel in the Tucson-area's Congressional District 6. Ciscomani led by 3,702, giving him 49.3% so far to Engel's 48.3%.Β
β’Β In the race for state Senate in Tucson-area District 17, Republican Vince Leach had a 1,586-vote lead over Democrat John McLean, so Leach has 50.6%.
β’Β Steve Christy, the sole Republican on the Pima County Board of Supervisors, led Democrat Vanessa Bechtol by 3,109 votes as he seeks a third term in District 4.Β
β’Β Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos, the Democratic incumbent, saw his lead slim to 6,456 as of Sunday, the latest count that had been posted by Pima County, down from 8,161 Friday, over RepublicanΒ challenger Heather Lappin. Nanos had nearly 51%.Β
GOP worked to 'bank' early votes
In the past two elections, some of the last Arizona votes to be counted skewed in favor of Republican candidates. Ahead of the 2022 election, some GOP officials were telling people not to vote early amid false claims that mail-in voting was insecure.
This year, however, the Republican Party engaged in an active effort to "bank'' early votes. That gave many Republicans, including Donald Trump, an edge from the get-go.
Even with that push, Lake hasn't caught up with Gallego.
She also ran far behind Trump in Arizona. The president-elect received more than 1.66 million votes in the state against 1.46 millionΒ for the GOP Senate hopeful, as of Monday afternoon.Β
Messages left with the Lake campaign, seeking comment, were not immediately returned.
Whether Lake will accept the final count remains to be seen.
She spent the last two years in court contesting her 17,117-vote loss in the 2022 gubernatorial race to Democrat Katie Hobbs. Not a single court accepted her arguments that there were flaws in the way the election was conducted.
Gallego to be in Senate minority
The victory for Gallego is bittersweet. A former state legislator before being elected to the U.S. House, he goes to a U.S. Senate that had been in Democratic hands to one where Republicans now will be in control for at least the next two years.
But while the GOP majority is expected to hit 53, it is short of the 60 needed by Republicans to avoid a filibuster of their measures.
Still, that rule does not apply to confirming nominees for the U.S. Supreme Court, pretty much clearing the way for Trump to fill any vacancies.
As of Tuesday, control of the U.S. House remained undecided. Republicans gained one seat, bringing their total to 214, with Democrats keeping control of 204.
But it takes 218 for a majority in the 435-seat chamber, with several races undecided, including Ciscomani's.
