The following is the opinion and analysis of the writer:
Leighton Rockafellow Jr.
On March 11, Tucson residents will vote on Proposition 414: a half-cent raise on our city sales tax for the next 10 years. This increase to 9.2% is estimated to generate an additional $800 million for the city over that period. A small portion of the new revenue will be divided between much needed affordable housing, shelter projects, and community resilience investments. However, the bulk of the funds are earmarked for surveillance cameras, police and fire upgrades, a new plane, and a new helicopter. There are no provisions in Prop. 414 that explain how these capital investments will be funded and maintained after the tax increase expires.
As a candidate for Tucson City Council Ward 6, I am concerned over the failure of Proposition 414 to account for the costs to fund and maintain these expansive projects beyond the ten-year mark. It places much emphasis on police, fire, and surveillance, and so little on our most dire needs: low-barrier shelters and low-cost housing for our most vulnerable residents.
As a native Tucsonan, I understand our history of passing most propositions that requested a sales tax increase to improve our city. We want our city to be the best it can be: a top destination to not only visit, but also to work and raise a family.
However, as an attorney, father, small-business owner, and Ward 6 candidate, I have a responsibility to spend wisely, especially when it is other people’s money. Proposition 414 is not responsible spending.
Of Proposition 414’s $800 million in estimated revenue, $526 million is earmarked for surveillance, police and fire upgrades. This includes $16.7 million for a new police plane and helicopter, $44.3 million for a new police/fire station, $12 million for a new fire station, $8.7 million for new police vehicles, and $2 million for a new ladder truck. An unknown portion of $20 million set aside for bus stop upgrades will buy new surveillance cameras. Increased staffing for the new facilities, training, and upgrades to existing infrastructure take the total to $526 million. In contrast, only $274 million of the $800 million total has been allocated to affordable housing, temporary shelter projects, community resilience, and related investments.
Allocating more than $16.7 million for surveillance equipment but only $9.5 million for low-barrier housing is a questionable choice in values. We are witnessing an influx of unhoused residents, and we are crying out for the city to act and to treat this as a matter of urgency. Yet, Prop. 414 prioritizes the ability to surveil. A new plane and cameras are not going to help our homeless population, which today is approximately 50% larger than it was in 2019. Ask those Tucsonans who work with our most vulnerable residents; most of them will tell you that we need more low-barrier shelter as fast as possible. It is the most effective way to improve lives. That is what our budget must prioritize.
After the tax increase expires, Tucson’s budget will have to absorb the ongoing staffing and maintenance costs of these projects. Yet, the future of that budget is in a state of flux. Recent changes to income taxes at the state level have reduced the amount of revenue we receive. Our Mayor recently noted how Trump’s “… order to freeze federal funds … could possibly affect the city of Tucson to the tune of $300 million.” In addition, there is a real threat of an economic downturn if our President’s proposed policies are implemented.
In other words, if Tucson’s 2035 general fund, a fund whose size is difficult to predict at this stage, can’t absorb these massive new maintenance and personnel costs, we will be faced with the difficult decision of either raising our sales tax once again or making significant budget cuts.
Instead of Proposition 414, our city needs a more financially prudent proposal that makes provisions for the needs of our fire and police services, but not to the detriment of the most pressing needs of our city: housing and shelter.
On March 11, we can demand a better, more robust, and balanced proposal by voting no on Proposition 414.
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