The following is the opinion and analysis of the writer:
Brace yourself for a rough couple of weeks.
After Tuesday’s election, we might end up with a governor, attorney general and secretary of state who don’t know how to do their jobs; who lie about elections and sacrifice kindness and compassion in favor of being seen as strong. In other words, Arizona could have a Donald Trump-style administration if Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh, and Mark Finchem are elected.
Over the past few months, the Star’s opinion pages have been filled with discussions about how these candidates threaten democracy. It is an essential conversation to have right now, but I don’t think we’ve talked enough about a more immediate problem: how we are going to get through the election itself.
To be clear, I don’t think the world will end this week. As Miami Herald columnist Leonard Pitts writes in today’s paper, the results of the election could threaten the future of democracy, but there won’t be foreign troops in Akron and electricity will still work in Kansas City.
But it’s going to get nuts.
Here’s what I expect will happen: Lake, Hamadeh, and Finchem will continue to follow Trump’s 2020 playbook and unleash whatever lies or half-truths about fraud serve their purpose. This could start as soon as the first vote tallies are released on Tuesday, particularly if races are too close to call.
I would not be surprised if election officials make mistakes this week. We already saw a shortage of ballots in Pinal County in the primary election and a batch of incorrect ballots sent out a few weeks ago. Officials are human and elections are large, complicated operations. But rest assured, our election system has safeguards to keep elections free and fair.
If Lake, Hamadeh, and Finchem win, they’ll say they overcame fraud, as Lake claimed during the primary. In this scenario, I expect the Democratic candidates, Katie Hobbs, Kris Mayes, and Adrian Fontes, would concede as soon as the outcome is clear.
If Lake, Hamadeh, and Finchem are losing on election night, they likely will claim widespread fraud and create chaos. Mainstream news outlets will try to figure out what’s happening, while right-wing outlets trumpet anything that could possibly be connected to fraud. Every few minutes, another bit of news will pop up. Social media will erupt a thousand different ways. Trump will call for an investigation of votes in Arizona.
This will be a key moment. We all need to pay attention, but without burning ourselves out. It’s OK to step away from your TV or computer for a while. Keep your focus on information that can be verified. Pause before sharing outrageous claims on social media. Remember that election workers are going as fast as they can, but definitive results might not be immediately available.
As the ballots are counted, we will start hearing about traffic cones outside a campaign headquarters, or a van parked next to an election office, or some other nonsense. A guy sneezing as he drops off a ballot in Casa Grande will be linked to a manila envelope on a table in Atlanta. I will start getting letters to the editor asking why the Star doesn’t have a team of reporters investigating traffic cones, vans, sneezes and manila envelopes.
The conspiracy theories will scare the pants off voters. Lake, Hamadeh, and Finchem will point to that fear as evidence their lies are true. If they take their claims to court, the next few weeks will be consumed with the ins and outs of frivolous lawsuits. Keep in mind that judges threw out 60-some lawsuits filed by Trump and his supporters after the 2020 election. Many of those judges were not amused by the ridiculous claims and lack of evidence presented to them.
Democratic politicians will call out the lies, but they likely won’t reach anybody who needs to hear it. I doubt more than a handful of Republican politicians will try to set the record straight.
Officials will verify the election results, but Republican legislator will call for an audit. Don’t be surprised if some version of the Cyber Ninjas comes back on the scene later this week.
The worst-case scenario would be if losing candidates call for violence to somehow protect the integrity of the election. As we saw with the assault of Paul Pelosi and the attack on the Capitol, misguided individuals are ready to commit political violence. Lake’s wink at the Pelosi attack during a recent campaign event, which sparked laughter from her supporters, is an ominous sign of what could happen.
Let’s keep our heads for the next few weeks. It could be chaotic, but we’ll get through it. When the dust settles, we’ll get to work figuring out if we still have a functioning democracy in Arizona.
