Donald Trump’s second-term approval fell below 40%, underscoring pressure on his agenda. Nate Silver’s analysis places Trump’s approval at 39.7% with a -17.4 net rating, calling the drop “remarkably linear.” The review cites gas prices near $4, tariffs, and rising costs as key factors in the Donald Trump approval rating trend. Silver linked declines to a DHS funding shutdown, the start of the Iran conflict, and incidents involving ICE operations viewed as unpopular with swing voters. He also reported erosion within Trump’s base, with only 22% strongly favorable, and noted no “rally-around-the-flag effect” during the Iran conflict.