“If only Arizona’s offense could put a decent game together, the Wildcats would stand a real chance …”
Wait, what? Is that a typo? Is the word “offense” supposed to be “defense”?
Nope. The reality of the 2019 Cats is that they aren’t the offensive juggernaut their overall statistics suggest and haven’t been for a while (with one exception).
In today’s “Cats Stats,” we’re going to take a deep dive into some of Arizona’s recent offensive numbers to figure what has gone wrong. That exercise also will reveal what the Wildcats need to do to get right, starting with Saturday’s game at Stanford.
Let’s start with the raw, season-long stats, which still look pretty good. Arizona ranks second in the Pac-12 in total offense (491.6 yards per game), rushing (199.7 ypg) and passing (291.9 ypg). The Wildcats are fifth in scoring (32.4 ppg).
Those numbers aren’t far off from last year’s final totals. The Cats actually are averaging 34 more yards per game than in 2018, when they led the conference in total offense (457.7).
The stats in Pac-12 games tell a different tale. Arizona ranks sixth in total offense (420.8 ypg), ninth in rushing (117.8 ypg) and eighth in scoring (24 points per game). The Wildcats are holding steady in passing yards (303.0, second), although that number is inflated by extensive garbage time in the fourth quarter against USC.
A case can be made that Arizona’s offense has been just OK since the NAU game, in which the Wildcats compiled 720 yards and 65 points. They haven’t reached 500 yards in any of the succeeding five games.
They have eclipsed 30 points only once, at Colorado.
Even the Texas Tech game, which concluded the non-conference portion of the schedule, was a major struggle at times. Arizona finished with 499 yards in a 28-14 victory. But quarterback Khalil Tate had three turnovers, and the Wildcats had only 13 points entering the fourth quarter. It was one of three games in which they averaged fewer than 6 yards per play. The other two were the past two, against Washington and USC.
At least the Wildcats ran the ball well against the Red Raiders. Arizona finished with 314 rushing yards, including a season-high 129 by Tate. At that point in the season, the UA’s three-game average stood at 307.7 yards. Its per-carry average stood at 6.6 yards.
In the past four games, the rushing numbers have plummeted. The Wildcats are averaging 117.8 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.
The causes of that drop-off are multifold. Tate has been banged up. So has tailback J.J. Taylor. Injuries have forced the offensive line to shuffle some pieces. Arizona relied mainly on a short-range passing attack when freshman Grant Gunnell subbed for Tate against UCLA. Colorado stacked the box to stop the run.
Arizona also has allowed more sacks in the past two games (11) than in the first five (seven). Sack yardage goes in the rushing column in college football, and that skewed the numbers against Washington and USC.
Those 11 sacks added up to 78 yards in losses. Take those out of the mix, and the Wildcats – with Taylor back in the lineup – averaged 183.5 yards per game and 5.6 per carry against the Huskies and Trojans.
The impact of those negative-yardage plays – which we’re not going to relitigate here, having done so earlier in the week – has been felt in another crucial area.
Arizona converted only 10 of 32 third downs (31.3%) against UW and USC – a direct result of facing an inordinate number of third-and-long situations. The UA entered the Washington game having converted at a 53.2% clip.
In part because of early-down sacks, Arizona needed to gain 10 or more yards on half of its 16 third-down tries vs. Washington. Two others required 9 yards.
Against USC, the UA needed 10-plus yards on six of 16 third-down attempts. Four others fell into the third-and-long category (7 or more yards).
Earlier this season, we chronicled a correlation between third-down percentage and the average distance needed to gain a first down. Arizona went 3 of 11 (27.3%) against Hawaii, when it needed an average of 9.6 yards. The UA went 24 of 35 (68.6%) against NAU and Texas Tech, when it needed an average of 5.5 yards.
That figure rose to 8.7 yards against Washington. It was 8.3 against USC.
“We’ve gotta stay on schedule,” UA coach Kevin Sumlin said simply.
Arizona has converted more than 50 percent of its third downs only once since the Texas Tech game. That happened against Colorado, when the Wildcats went 8 of 14. The average distance needed against the Buffaloes was 6.1 yards. They did not sack Tate in that game.
“The negative-yardage plays (the past two weeks) were basically on plays, not mistakes,” Sumlin said. “Does that make sense?”
It does. The rise in sacks allowed — and overall TFLs against — has coincided with a decline in UA penalties. Arizona has committed only 11 penalties for 69 yards over the past three games. The Wildcats had at least 10 infractions for 74 or more yards in three of their first four contests.
“Our negative-yardage plays, our second-down situations, were lack of execution,” Sumlin said. “That was a heavy blitz down for USC.”
The Trojans basically copied the Huskies’ defensive game plan. UA coaches and players expect the Cardinal to do the same. Will the outcome be any different?
Sumlin rattled off a number of keys for the Arizona offense, including being efficient and possessing the ball against a team that wants to play keep-away. The quarterback play must improve as well, whether it’s Tate rediscovering his mojo or yielding the job to Gunnell.
The problems have been identified. Now it’s just a matter of solving them.
“The things that we haven’t done very well the last two weeks, we better get that together this week,” Sumlin said, “or it’s going to be the same result.”
The Wildcats endured a midseason slump last year too and came out of it.
Arizona averaged 304.3 yards and 18 points (including two defensive scores) over a three-game stretch against USC, Cal and Utah. The Wildcats averaged 500.4 yards and 36.8 points over the final five games.
The 2019 Cats also have five games remaining.
