What to watch for when the Arizona Wildcats host the Arizona State Sun Devils

Here are three things to watch in the Arizona Wildcats’ Territorial Cup matchup against Arizona State at Arizona Stadium (Friday, 5 p.m., ESPN), plus a score prediction and some pertinent preview links:

1. RETURN OF QB1?

Would Arizona have won its last two games if Grant Gunnell had been healthy? It’s impossible to say. But there’s a decent chance the Wildcats would have won at least one and wouldn’t be carrying that school-record losing streak into Arizona Stadium tonight. Based on the intel I’ve gathered over the course of the week, the guess here is that Gunnell will be back in the lineup. Whether his shoulder injury has fully healed is unclear, and nothing is official until the ball is kicked off and he trots onto the field. But if Gunnell is indeed able to return, it would, at the very least, give the UA offense a spark. Freshman Will Plummer has tons of potential, and his ability to avoid sacks helped him turn nothing into something a handful of times over the past two games. But Plummer doesn’t appear to be quite ready for prime time. Gunnell isn’t fully formed either. But if given time to throw – a huge if – he’s generally going to move the chains. For his career, Gunnell is a 66.2% passer with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions. Counterpart and fellow sophomore Jayden Daniels’ numbers: 59.8%, 19 and three.

2. PASSING GRADE

Stat that blew me away, Part 1: Entering Thursday, Arizona ranked second in the Pac-12 and 26th in the nation in pass defense. Say what now? It’s true! The Wildcats are yielding just 196.3 passing yards per game. That’s nearly 100 yards fewer than last season (289.8). Some context is required here, of course. Washington (239 yards), UCLA (129) and Colorado (92) were all playing with second-half leads against Arizona. They all ran the ball effectively enough – gaining 233, 281 and 407 yards – to where they didn’t really need to pass that much. It’s also, as is often said, a small sample size. But let’s give credit where it’s due. Cornerbacks Lorenzo Burns and Christian Roland-Wallace are playing at a high level. The young safeties have improved. So have the linebackers in terms of their zone responsibilities. Bear in mind, too, that the Wildcats’ depth in the secondary is virtually non-existent. ASU presents an interesting test. I expect the Sun Devils to operate a run-heavy attack. But if they use play-action, they have some big weapons – including 6-7 freshman receiver Johnny Wilson and 6-7 senior tight end Curtis Hodges – who could cause problems.

3. GETTING THEIR KICKS

Stat that blew me away, Part 2: Arizona ranks next to last in the nation in red-zone touchdown rate at 36.4%. Only Bowling Green is worse at 33.3%. (If you think the Wildcats are a bad team, check out the Falcons, who have been outscored 225-57 in five games.) When you combine the Cats’ red-zone TD percentage with their third-down woes, it’s no wonder their offense is scuffling. Which leads us to this: Kickers could play a critical role in this game, and Arizona might have an advantage there. After missing his first field-goal attempt of the season, Lucas Havrisik has made six in a row. Meanwhile, ASU has some uncertainty at the position. Cristian Zendejas entered the season as the starter, but after he missed a 45-yard attempt against UCLA, redshirt freshman Jack Luckhurst got the call (and nailed a 49-yarder). The two have combined to make 3 of 4, so it’s not as if it’s a huge problem. But if you’re looking for areas where the Wildcats might have an edge – and they’re hard to come by – this could be one. Whether it’ll matter is another issue. ASU was an 11.5-point favorite as of this writing. Then again, strange things often happen in the Territorial Cup. After an up-and-down career, Havrisik finally seems ready for a big moment should one arise.