Arizona’s defense has improved in myriad ways this season. But one specific, critical aspect has reverted to its 2016 form. If the Wildcats don’t get it repaired soon, it will cost them a victory.
Third-down defense has been a major problem for Arizona the past three games. The Wildcats have managed to win them anyway. They might not be so lucky against upcoming, ranked opponents Washington State and USC.
Over the past three weeks, Arizona has allowed opponents to convert an astounding 62 percent of their third downs. That is not a sustainable model.
Cal was successful on 13 of 19 third-down attempts during Saturday night’s game in Berkeley. Arizona hung on for a 45-44 victory in double overtime.
“Those third-down conversions were just a killer,” UA coach Rich Rodriguez said. “We need to be better than that.”
As Rodriguez noted, many of the Golden Bears’ conversions were of the third-and-long variety. Cal converted 8 of 10 third-down chances of 7 yards or longer.
That’s exactly the situation a defense wants to put an offense in, and it can be extremely demoralizing when the defense doesn’t capitalize on them.
Those failures affect the team in multiple ways, and none of them are good. First, they keep the opposing offense on the field — in turn wearing out the defense. Second, they keep Khalil Tate off the field, which is what every UA opponent wants.
The Cal game unfolded similarly to the Oct. 7 game at Colorado. The Bears and Buffaloes both embarked on a seemingly endless run of long, clock-consuming touchdown drives. Cal scored TDs on each of its first three possessions of the second half. Each drive lasted at least 11 plays.
Arizona never lost the lead, but that’s only because it had a 14-point advantage at halftime and countered Cal with a touchdown and a field goal. The truth is, the defense put the offense in a bind.
Rodriguez explained his thought process as the second half played out: “We’re not stopping them, we’ve got limited possessions, we’re going to have to score every time.”
The Wildcats scored just enough to win and improve to 5-2, 3-1 in the Pac-12 — better than anyone outside the Lowell-Stevens Football Facility thought they would fare to this point.
Arizona is a win away from being bowl-eligible. Assuming Tate remains healthy, the defense’s performance on third downs could determine how high the Wildcats climb.
For the season, Arizona’s stop rate on third downs has slipped to 48.1 percent, which ranks 121st in the nation. Last year the Wildcats allowed 52.6 percent, which ranked 127th (out of 128 FBS programs).
After struggling in the opener against Northern Arizona, which converted 10 of 19 third downs, the UA defense seemed to find its stride.
Over the next three games — against Houston, UTEP and Utah — Arizona allowed a conversion rate of just 27 percent. Through four games, the Wildcats sat at 35.7 percent — right in line with defensive coordinator Marcel Yates’ baseline goal.
Then Colorado converted 13 of 21, and Arizona’s third-down defense hasn’t been the same since. It was actually worse than the final numbers indicated against Cal; the Bears gained three additional first downs on Wildcats penalties. Those don’t count toward the official third-down totals.
“That’s bad on us,” senior safety Dane Cruikshank said. “We gotta get in the film room and fix it up. We’ve got a lot of things to fix up.
“It wasn’t a pretty win, but we got the W. At the end of the day we’re all happy. (We have) another week to get better.”
‘Hard-nosed kid’
Freshman linebacker Colin Schooler couldn’t have been more humble while talking about his game-ending heroics late Saturday night.
Schooler knocked the ball away from Cal receiver Jordan Duncan in the back of the end zone on a two-point conversion attempt that would have won the game for the Bears. Three times Schooler used the adverb “luckily” to describe the sequence of events. He also made two references to “mental mistakes” he had made earlier in the game.
One of them was tipping the ball to Cal’s Kanawai Noa for a completed pass that accounted for one of the Bears’ third-down conversions. Schooler committed a personal-foul penalty later in that possession.
But the good far outweighed the bad. Schooler had a team- and career-high 15 tackles, including 1.5 for losses, a forced fumble and a quarterback hurry.
“He reminds me of Scooby Wright,” said senior tailback Zach Green, repeating a comparison others already have made less than one season into Schooler’s UA career.
“He’s just a freshman. It’s going to be pretty crazy in the coming years.
“He always makes plays like that in practice. He’s a hard-nosed kid. It definitely showed.”
Extra points
- Arizona has won the last four meetings with Cal by a combined 11 points.
- Arizona has won three consecutive games for the first time since the first three games of the 2015 season. The Wildcats have won three straight Pac-12 games for the first time since a four-game streak to end the ’14 regular season.
- Arizona has topped 300 yards rushing in five of seven games. The Wildcats have rushed for at least 200 yards in each of their four conference games.
- Arizona has scored 45 or more points in three straight games for the first time since 1920.
- The victory at Cal marked the first time Arizona has won an overtime game on the road. The Wildcats had been 0-3 in road OT games.
- Arizona is 3-0 away from home and is the only Pac-12 team without a road loss this season. Eight of the 12 teams have multiple road losses.
- Tate has one run of 70-plus yards in three straight games. He is tied with Notre Dame’s Josh Adams for the most 70-plus-yard runs by an FBS player this season.
- No. 15 Washington State (7-1, 4-1) is favored by 2.5 points over Arizona in Saturday’s homecoming game (6:30 p.m., Pac-12 Networks). The Cougars won last year’s matchup 69-7.
