No one questions whether Austin Wells can hit. Enough people seem to be doubting whether he can catch to possibly drive him out of the first round of this week’s MLB draft.
So it goes for the sophomore-eligible Arizona Wildcat: His stock appears to have fallen slightly despite the fact that he hasn’t played in a baseball game since March 8.
Once considered something close to a lock to be taken in Round 1, Wells has slipped a bit, at least in the mock-draft realm. One example: On April 16, CBSSports.com projected Wells to be selected 26th by the Oakland Athletics. On June 1, the site had him going 28th to the New York Yankees. On Wednesday, it had him out of the first round entirely, including Competitive Balance Round A (picks 30-37).
The debate about Wells boils down to one factor: his ability to play catcher long term. If he can — and if he continues to hit the way he did at Arizona and in the Cape Cod League — he can be “a future All-Star in the big leagues,” UA coach Jay Johnson said.
If Wells ends up at first base or in left field, he still can be an All-Star. But there are lot more first basemen and left fielders who can rake than there are catchers. It could make the difference between Wells going in the first round or the second.
Wells — who has declined all pre-draft interview requests, including one made by the Star — spent the bulk of the offseason working on his defense.
He improved his flexibility, his blocking and his framing. Johnson said Wells made “a tremendous jump” as a catcher between his freshman and sophomore seasons. He just didn’t get much of a chance to show it because of the coronavirus pandemic, which ended the Wildcats’ season after 15 games.
“He did an exceptional job of keeping strikes, strikes — the pitches that we were supposed to get — and even some that maybe we weren’t supposed to get,” Johnson said.
For example, in Arizona’s final two games of the season, Wells “stole” 13 pitches that were outside the strike zone, according to TrackMan data. That equates to almost 1.5 runs saved.
While he threw out base stealers at about the same rate — 33.3% in 2020 vs. 35.3% in ’19 — Wells dramatically reduced the number of passed balls he allowed. As a freshman, Wells yielded 10 passed balls in 262 innings, or one every 26.2 frames. As a sophomore, he surrendered one in 100 innings.
Improved catching played at least some role in Arizona’s improved pitching. UA hurlers had a 6.53 ERA with Wells behind the plate in 2019. In 2020, that figure dropped to 3.51.
“I think that signifies the amount of work that he put in on it and deserves a lot of credit for; (he) took a lot of pride in becoming a better defensive player,” Johnson said. “I know his work ethic. When he goes out on this journey, he’ll put (in) everything he can to be an elite catcher.”
The scouting reports written by draft analysts make minimal, if any, mention of Wells’ blue-collar approach to his craft — or his desire to play catcher, which isn’t for everyone. It’s the position he has gravitated toward since his Little League days in Las Vegas.
“I think he does have the physical ability to do it,” Johnson said. “I think he has the willingness to do it, and at the catching position, that’s probably one of the most important factors.”
MLB.com compared Wells to the Chicago Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber, and that assessment makes some sense. Like Wells, Schwarber is a powerful, high-OBP left-handed hitter. He was drafted as a catcher — at No. 4 overall in 2014 — before finding a home in left field.
But the comparison might underestimate Wells’ athletic ability. Wells, who slashed .357/.476/.560 in 71 games as a Wildcat, had a team-high seven triples as a freshman. For his career, he stole seven bases without being caught.
“He’s incredibly athletic for a catcher,” Johnson said. “Looking back, particularly as a freshman, that was a nice surprise about his game. When somebody hit a double — and we hit a lot of doubles in 2019 — and he’s on first base, he’s scoring.”
Whether that translates into a first-round selection, which would be Arizona’s first since Kevin Newman in 2015, remains to be seen.
In the meantime, here’s how several outlets project Wells:
THE ATHLETIC
Overall rank: 44
Mock draft: Not selected (first round only)
They said it: “He’s a below-average defender and already big enough that he might outgrow the position, but either way scouts don’t give him any chance to stay back there. He can hit, though. … That’s probably enough to make him a top-two-rounds pick.”
BASEBALL AMERICA
Overall rank: 21
Mock draft: Not selected (including Competitive Balance Round A)
They said it: “The bat is impressive enough that most teams view him as a first-round player, but questions remain as to where he fits best on the field. If he could stay behind the plate, he’d be a certain first-round pick, but there are more scouts who are skeptical of Wells’ receiving ability than think he can make it as a catcher.”
CBSSPORTS.COM
Overall rank: 26
Mock draft: Not selected (including Competitive Balance Round A)
They said it: “Wells has a pretty swing from the left side, and he has a chance to further tap into his power. The risk is … with his defense. He has a substandard arm, and he doesn’t grade as a good receiver. He could end up at the other end of the defensive spectrum, either at first base or in the outfield; alternatively, he could benefit more than any other draftee from robot umpires.”
D1BASEBALL.COM
Overall rank: 17 (college players only)
Mock draft: 16th pick (Chicago Cubs)
They said it: “Wells gets good natural lift and possesses the bat speed and core strength to produce plus raw power and drive balls in the opposite-field gap. … Defensively, he’s a capable backstop with solid hands and footwork along with an ability to break off consistent 2.0 pop times, though his arm strength is now more fringe-average and not nearly what he showed as a prep.”
ESPN.COM
Overall rank: 36
Mock draft: 31st pick (Pittsburgh Pirates)
They said it: “Wells isn’t a catcher and can only then play first base, but he might be good enough to catch with automatic balls and strikes, which might be a reality by the time he debuts. Above-average hitter with raw power.”
MLB.COM
Overall rank: 27
Mock draft: Not selected (first round only)
They said it: “A team taking Wells with its first pick might want to send him out as a catcher until he proves he can’t play the position. His bat should play regardless.”
