The Arizona Wildcats’ investment in pitching has produced moderate dividends. It has grown more like a mutual fund than a volatile stock.
There is no disputing that Arizona’s pitching is in better shape than in 2019, when a sharp downturn prompted Jay Johnson to make a major change. The program had been seeking to add high-end arms for years, with mixed results; some pitching prospects simply had exceeded their early scouting profiles and signed with MLB clubs. That summer, Johnson hired Nate Yeskie, one of the premier pitching coaches in college baseball.
The early returns in 2020 were encouraging. Arizona’s ERA plunged from 6.21 to 3.87. Its rate of strikeouts per nine innings climbed from 7.52 to 10.80. Its BB/9 rate improved slightly, from 5.33 to 4.67.
The ’20 season ended just before the start of Pac-12 play because of the coronavirus pandemic. Year 1 under Yeskie’s tutelage lasted just 15 games.
A little over a year later, the 17th-ranked Wildcats (12-4) are in Los Angeles, set to face No. 23 UCLA (10-5) in the first conference series for either school since 2019. Their pitching has progressed in some areas, regressed in others.
Arizona ranks ninth in the Pac-12 with a 4.38 ERA. That’s almost two runs lower than 2019 but a slight step back from ’20 and not where Johnson or Yeskie want it to be.
The Wildcats’ BB/9 rate continues to trend in the right direction. It’s currently 4.38. But that figure also ranks ninth in the conference.
“It’s been good in spots,” Johnson said of the pitching staff’s performance to date. “Our starters have a lot of wins under their belt” — a combined record of 8-1 — “and that’s really the one that matters to me. In spots, the bullpen has been really good with Preston (Price) and Vince (Vannelle) and Quinn (Flanagan) and helped us win some important games that were close late, that allowed our offense to separate.
“There’s some things that we can do better. We can attack the strike zone a little bit better. We can finish hitters off when we get to two strikes a little bit better. So those would be some points of emphasis moving forward.”
The two-strike issue is reflected in Arizona’s K/9 rate, which has dropped to 9.55. Again, it’s a significant upgrade from 2019. But it’s down from ’20, despite the additions of hard-throwing starters Chase Silseth (26 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings) and TJ Nichols (22 in 21) and Price fanning nearly two batters per inning (22 in 12 1/3).
Overall, it’ll take some doing to get to UCLA’s level. The Bruins annually have one of the top staffs in the Pac-12. Last year, when they were 13-2, they ranked first in the league in ERA, K/9 and BB/9. The year before that, when they were 52-11, the Bruins ranked first in ERA and K/9 and third in BB/9.
Only once from 2016-20 did UCLA rank outside the top three in the conference in more than one of those categories. That year, 2016, was the only one in which it finished under .500.
UCLA currently ranks fifth in ERA (3.34), second in K/9 rate (10.64) and fifth in BB/9 rate (3.20).
“They pitch extremely well, and this year’s no different,” Johnson said. “Three good starters, really good bullpen. They typically itemize roles and have the talent and personnel to do that. That’s probably at the heart of (their success).”
Lefty getting right
The return to health — and form — of left-hander Garrett Irvin could provide the boost the Wildcats need.
Irvin began the year on a pitch count after being shut down for about three weeks in December because of arm discomfort. Irvin has gone deeper into games with each outing and had his best performance of the year this past Saturday night against Air Force, yielding three runs in 5 2/3 innings. When he exited in the sixth after reaching 85 pitches, Irvin had retired 15 of the previous 16 hitters he had faced.
“It’s improved with each game,” Irvin said of his comfort level. “With each week, just being able to go out there an inning or maybe two more than the previous week, I think that helped get me comfortable and find what works for me again.”
After transferring from Riverside City College, Irvin emerged as Arizona’s Friday-night starter last season. He posted a 4-0 record with 28 strikeouts and only four walks in 22 2/3 innings.
Irvin’s start to 2021 suggested he hadn’t quite shaken off the rust after being sidelined. In his first two outings, covering 4 2/3 innings, Irvin yielded only one run. But he walked six batters and struck out just two.
In his past two outings, Irvin has allowed four earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, but his ratio of strikeouts (eight) to walks (five) has flipped. He has started to look more like his usual self.
“He’s won everywhere he’s been,” Johnson said of Irvin, who posted a 17-4 record between Point Loma Nazarene and Riverside in his first two years of college. “We had a little bit of a hiccup with his arm, which has taken some time to reboot and get the pitch count up. We feel good about where that’s at right now.”
Irvin has been moved up from the No. 3 to the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind Silseth. Nichols has been elevated from No. 4 to No. 3.
Inside pitch
- Arizona last faced UCLA in March 2019, and the Bruins swept the three-game series in L.A. Arizona swept UCLA the previous season in Tucson.
- UA last played a conference series May 23-25, 2019, at Washington State. “It feels like it’s been so long,” veteran center fielder Donta’ Williams said. “Ever since opening day, it’s felt like I haven’t played baseball in five years, even though I played in the summer. It’s just good to be able to play again, being able to interact and get on the field with your guys and compete and go to work with them.”
- Rosters are limited to 27 players per team during Pac-12 play. Arizona took 11 pitchers to UCLA.
- Arizona and UCLA have the longest streaks in the Pac-12 without being shut out. Arizona has scored at least one run in 125 consecutive games, dating to March 17, 2018. The Bruins have scored in 99 straight since May 24, 2018.
- UA first baseman Branden Boissiere leads the Pac-12 in batting average (.458), on-base percentage (.571) and runs (27). He’s tied for fifth in RBIs (16).
- Two of the Bruins’ regulars are third baseman Kyle Karros and right-hander Jared Karros — the sons of former UCLA and MLB standout Eric Karros.
- The scheduled pitching matchups are as follows: RHP Silseth (3-0, 5.70 ERA) vs. RHP Zach Pettway (0-0, 6.43), LHP Irvin (0-1, 3.38) vs. RHP Jesse Bergin (3-1, 2.18) and RHP Nichols (3-0, 4.29) vs. RHP Nick Nastrini (2-1, 3.74).
