The Arizona Wildcats have played eight Pac-12 series. They have lost only two of them.
In each instance — at UCLA March 19-21 and at Stanford this past weekend — Arizona dropped the first game by one run in the final inning before splitting the next two contests.
The Wildcats have come that close to winning every conference series they’ve played so far.
“It’s amazing the margin between winning and losing,” UA coach Jay Johnson said Monday.
The difference between the top teams in the Pac-12 is miniscule. Three — Arizona, Stanford and Oregon — are tied atop the league with a .667 winning percentage. Oregon State and UCLA aren’t far behind.
Whoever wins the league will be in an advantageous position when NCAA Tournament host sites are finalized. The initial batch is expected to be released later this week.
Arizona (32-13, 16-8 Pac-12) ranks first in the league and seventh nationally in RPI. Oregon (30-11, 14-7) is next at No. 10. Stanford (26-10, 12-6) is No. 17. There’s a good chance one of the three will land a top-eight seed, which would put that school in position to host a Super Regional should it advance that far.
The Wildcats took two of three from the Ducks in late March in Tucson. Oregon and Stanford are scheduled to face each other later this month.
Arizona has two league series left: against last-place Washington this weekend and at Oregon State May 21-23. Stanford’s series against UW was canceled because of COVID-19 issues within the Cardinal program. Stanford closes the season against OSU.
“Two Pac-12 series is an eternity, and they (the Cardinal) have three,” Johnson said. “And then you’ve got other good teams like Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA.
“We had ourselves in position to win two of those games (at Stanford). More often than not, we’ve come out on the right side of that. We just did not this weekend.”
The Wildcats had a chance to gain separation in the very first inning against the Cardinal. They had one run in and the bases loaded with two outs when Kobe Kato hit a sharp grounder up the middle. Stanford shortstop Adam Crampton made a diving stop on the second-base side of the bag and threw out Kato at first.
“If that gets through we’re up 3-0 off of Brendan Beck, who’s one on top three pitchers in our league, with two more runners on base,” Johnson said. “He’s going to be over 40 pitches after one inning. That play, in my opinion, won them the game on Friday.”
Stanford took a 3-1 lead into the seventh inning. Arizona scored three runs to take a 4-3 advantage, which it held into the eighth. The Cardinal scored the tying run with two outs on a Kato error, and the teams battled deep into extra innings. Stanford capitalized on a pair of walks to score the winning run in the 13th.
“We made one more mistake than they did,” Johnson said. “That was the difference in the game.”
Arizona responded demonstratively, slamming Stanford 20-2 the following afternoon. The Cardinal held a 1-0 lead with two outs and no one on base in the fifth inning of the rubber match. Freshman right-hander TJ Nichols walked Brock Jones after getting ahead of him 1-2. Nichols then surrendered a two-run homer to Tommy Troy.
“We had two outs, nobody on and two strikes, and it turned into a two-run inning that stretched the lead for them,” Johnson said. “If that ball doesn’t go over the fence, I think it’s a completely different game.”
It was moderately surprising that Nichols was in the game at that point instead of fellow righty Chandler Murphy. Although Nichols had had a breakthrough outing the previous Tuesday against Grand Canyon, Murphy had been more consistently reliable out of the bullpen. He also hadn’t pitched since the previous Saturday.
“I have faith in both those guys,” Johnson said. “Chandler has pitched really good out of that role. Coach (Nate) Yeskie and I had talked about it before the game. We just felt like where we were in the order, that matchup ... that that was the right spot for (Nichols). And then Chandler following him was better.”
Murphy relieved Nichols the following inning. Murphy allowed three runs (one earned) in 1 1/3 frames, contributing to an overall disappointing afternoon from the bullpen (seven runs, including five earned, in 4 2/3 innings).
Demands on Daniel
Catcher Daniel Susac had another stellar offensive weekend, going 8 for 15 to lift his average to .359. He leads the team with 12 home runs and has caught fellow freshman Jacob Berry atop the RBI leaderboard with 53.
Susac also let two pitches get by him for passed balls, both of which led to runs. He had only six passed balls in his first 40 appearances.
Although Susac’s soaring batting average suggests otherwise, Johnson and his staff are monitoring the freshman for signs of fatigue.
“It’s on your mind,” Johnson said. “It’s really hard to have good offensive catchers because of that. ... He’s done a good job recently of making sure he’s doing the things he needs to do to be rebooted. I’ve seen it go the opposite way.
“We’re just going to keep managing his workload ... throughout the week. We’ve done a lot of things relative to that with our team this year that I think have been beneficial. It’s really important for Daniel.”
Inside pitch
Arizona was supposed to have played at Santa Clara on Monday, but the coaches agreed to cancel the game because of logistics related to COVID-19 testing. Johnson remains hopeful that he can squeeze in a 56th game but conceded that “it’s gonna be tough sledding.”
The UA fell three spots in Baseball America’s Top 25, sliding from seventh to 10th. D1Baseball.com dropped the Wildcats four spots, from ninth to 13th.
Arizona has played the fifth-most difficult schedule in the nation, according to WarrenNolan.com. No other Pac-12 team cracks the top 35.
