If Azuolas Tubelis’ name doesn’t pop up on the board late Thursday evening, the Arizona Wildcats will go without a pick for the third time in the last five NBA Drafts.
While that’s significant in an aggregate sense, partly reflecting the off-court issues the program faced from 2017-2022, it also can mean little in a single-year lens. Players leave schools sometimes when completely unexpected and now, with the lure of NIL money, sometimes return when they aren’t expected to. So any given year can mean a flood of early departures at elite programs or none at all.
Arizona’s 2020 draft class is somewhat of an example. Three freshmen left for that year’s draft, including one who wasn’t expected to going into the 2019-20 season (Zeke Nnaji) — though the Wildcats’ failure to produce a pick in 2021 wasn’t just because those guys weren’t around but also because then-coach Sean Miller was recruiting under dark NCAA clouds.
A better example came last year, when only sophomore guard Bennedict Mathurin appeared a surefire bet to leave for the 2022 draft … but was ultimately joined by sophomore guard Dalen Terry and junior big man Christian Koloko. Those two effectively turned from being potential 2023 draft picks into 2022 picks, one reason the Wildcats might have none in ’23.
Here are some other reasons for the Wildcats’ draft situation this year:
1. Maybe they really weren’t all that last year.
Arizona entered last season as the No. 17 team in the Associated Press preseason Top 25 poll, with significant questions about how it would replace three draft picks in depth and overall talent. But its early success, including a Maui Invitational title and nonconference wins over Indiana and Tennessee, ratcheted up expectations considerably, and the Wildcats spent every week but one in the top 10 after Dec. 5.
Then they shrank their rotation down to seven players thanks to what was indeed a significant drop-off in talent — followed by a spate of key injuries suffered in the Pac-12 Tournament. They didn’t have the depth, talent and toughness to overcome those injuries in the NCAA Tournament, where the No. 2-seeded Wildcats lost to 15th-seeded Princeton in the first round.
2. Tubelis’ market value differs between the college and NBA games.
Tubelis was a consensus second-team All-American pick as a junior last season, clearly one of the best players in college basketball. At times, he was unstoppable offensively in the post and in transition.
But as college stars such as Kentucky’s Oscar Tshwiebwe and Gonzaga’s Drew Timme have also found, a great college game doesn’t always fit into the NBA, especially for big men who don’t have a proven range for jump shots or the ability to guard away from the basket.
Gonzaga's Drew Timme, left, and Julian Strawther celebrate in the second half of the Bulldog's Sweet 16 game against UCLA in the West Regional of the NCAA Tournament on March 23, 2023, in Las Vegas.
“The NBA and college basketball have gradually evolved into two different games with distinct differences, resulting in some players holding disproportional values at the two levels,’” wrote NBA Draft analyst Matt Babcock, who even added that some players “can’t afford to go to the NBA” with NIL money rewarding their skills at a higher level in college.
Tubelis said last month that his decision wasn’t about money or whether he could get more while at UA or in Europe. He said he’s been working hard on his 3-point shooting during the pre-draft process.
But Tubelis also struggled defensively at Arizona, with coach Tommy Lloyd even removing him at some key moments, and must prove he can guard a mobile, modern-day NBA big man.
3. UA’s grad transfers weren’t projected NBA players.
Courtney Ramey and Cedric Henderson might have produced beyond expectations as grad transfers last season, helping the Wildcats offset the losses of Mathurin and Terry, but neither was considered a surefire NBA pick before they arrived in Tucson.
That hasn’t changed, though both players are expected to secure solid professional contracts, either in the G League or elsewhere in the world.
Arizona guard Cedric Henderson Jr., right, drives the ball against UCLA guard David Singleton during the first half of their game in the championship of the Pac-12 Tournament on March 11, 2023, in Las Vegas.
While Ramey hasn’t been available for comment, Henderson told the Star on Tuesday that he has worked out for the Charlotte Hornets, Memphis Grizzlies, Sacramento Kings and Cleveland Cavaliers while being based in his hometown of Memphis during the spring.
“It’s been going really well,” Henderson said via text message. “I’ve enjoyed the process a lot. It’s a lot of traveling, but it is worth it. You can’t get better experiences than this.”
