Scouting report: No. 11 Arizona Wildcats vs. USC Trojans

The Star's Bruce Pascoe has projected starting lineups, the latest storylines and pertinent information ahead of No. 11 Arizona's home matchup with USC on Thursday at 7 p.m. 

Probable starters

ARIZONA

G Kerr Kriisa (6-3 junior)

G Courtney Ramey (6-3 senior)

F Pelle Larsson (6-5 junior)

F Azuolas Tubelis (6-11 junior)

C Oumar Ballo (7-0 junior)

USC

G Boogie Ellis (6-3 senior)

G Kobe Johnson (6-6 sophomore)

F Drew Peterson (6-9 senior)

F Tre White (6-7 freshman)

C Joshua Morgan (6-11 junior)

How they match up

The series: Arizona hasn’t lost to the Trojans before fans at McKale Center since 2007-08, the first year Lute Olson stepped away from the Wildcats before retiring permanently in October 2009. The Wildcats also have won the last three games in the series but have only split the past eight games and lost to USC 87-73 when fans weren’t allowed at McKale Center during the 2020-21 season. UA leads the series 72-46 overall.

Last season, Arizona won 72-63 at McKale Center on Feb. 5, when Azuolas Tubelis had 18 points and 11 rebounds and the Wildcats held USC to just 34.3% shooting. The Wildcats were originally scheduled to play at USC over New Year’s weekend, but that was postponed because of the Trojans’ COVID issues. So the Wildcats instead visited Los Angeles on March 1 and smashed USC 91-71 to clinch the Pac-12 regular-season title. In that game, Bennedict Mathurin had 19 points and Kerr Kriisa had 18, while the Wildcats held USC to 39.7% shooting.

This season: The Wildcats are scheduled to play at USC on March 2, just a year and one day after beating the Trojans at the Galen Center last season.

USC overview

With the Mobley brothers gone – Evan in 2021 and Isaiah after last season – USC coach Andy Enfield was expected to run more of his offense through the perimeter this season. While he has, with noteworthy production from combo guard Boogie Ellis and versatile, lanky wing Drew Peterson, the Trojans are also still pretty tough inside. They are second nationally in 2-point percentage defense (41.2%) and ninth in defensive shot-blocking percentage, swatting 15.7% of opponents’ field goals. Center Joshua Morgan is ninth in shot-blocking percentage, swatting 11.3% of shots when he’s on the floor, and leads the Pac-12 overall in blocks per game at 2.67.

On the perimeter, the Trojans are aggressive. Sophomore Kobe Johnson is 21st nationally in steal percentage (4.9). In raw terms, Johnson is second in the Pac-12 in steals per game (2.17)

The Trojans are their most productive offensively inside the arc. They get only 23.6% of their scoring off 3-pointers, taking just 30.9% of their shots from 3-point range and making them at only a 31.9% rate. But USC shoots 52.3% from 2-point range, with six of their top seven players all shooting above 50% from inside the arc. Morgan leads USC with a 57.5% mark from 2.

As expected, Ellis and Peterson are the Trojans’ biggest threats, with Ellis shooting 37.5% from 3 and 50.4% from 2. Peterson also shoots 50.4% from 2 and 34.8% from 3. Both Ellis and Peterson struggled at McKale Center last season, with Peterson going 1 for 13 and Ellis 3 for 12.

He said it

“They play through Ellis and Peterson. Both of those guys are kind of all-league performers. Then they have other guys that all can contribute, whether it’s Morgan and his ability to finish plays around the rim or Johnson with scoring baskets. So they come at you with a variety of guys. (Guard Reese) Dixon-Waters comes off the bench and gives them a punch. He’s probably a guy that you really have to treat as a starter because of his aggressive nature and what he does. When he comes in the game he’s looking to score.

“You can label (Peterson) anyway you want, but he handles the basketball, leads the team in assists. He’s very unselfish with his play. He likes to facilitate, and he’s more than capable of scoring. They do share the basketball. They kind of have an unselfish team. They’re willing to move the ball around.

“(White and Johnson) are both good players. Johnson really is an active defender and a very capable scorer on 2s and 3s. Tre White is probably coming off one of his best games (13 points against Utah). Those guys are all capable of having big scoring nights.

“(Defensively) they make it tough for you to score and get out in the passing lanes. They play a mixture of 2-3 zone, some press, some man to man. (Enfield) has always had a mixture of how he plays. (Morgan) does a good job protecting the rim and making it difficult for you. He’s another reason teams don’t shoot well from 2.

“They’ve had a consistent effort throughout the year in terms of their level of play, execution, and they just keep coming at you with their style of play. They present problems.”

— UA assistant coach Steve Robinson, who scouted the Trojans

Key players

USC — Drew Peterson

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En route to all Pac-12 first-team honors last season, Peterson had one hiccup: He was a combined 0 for 12 from 3-point range in two games against the Wildcats. So far this season, USC’s unique 6-9 “point forward” is a 34.8% 3-point shooter who also leads the Trojans in assists (4.9) and minutes played (35.7).

Arizona — Kerr Kriisa

History says Kriisa will have a good night. He averaged 15.5 points in two games against USC last season and has been notably more productive on Thursdays than Saturdays over the past two weeks: Kriisa averaged 7.5 assists and 37.5% 3-point shooting on the past two Thursdays (vs Washington and Oregon State) but just 3.5 assists and 20% 3-point shooting on Saturdays (Washington State and Oregon).

Sidelines

Heart-attack survivor is back

It’s one thing that five-star freshman Vince Iwuchukwu returned back just in time to help USC in the middle of Pac-12 competition.

It’s a far bigger thing that he’s back at all.

Iwuchukwu, a 7-1 center from San Antonio, revealed in September that he collapsed while suffering major heart failure during an offeseason team workout on July 1, after which he was hospitalized for several days.

Iwuchukwu said in his September statement that he had received “optimal care” from USC and his health team and was following a protocol to ensure his health and safety.

“I’m feeling great, and my recovery and rehabilitation remain positive,” Iwuchukwu said.

Since then, things continued to progress so well that Iwuchukwu was cleared to play for the Trojans last week. He hit the floor for over four minutes on Jan. 12 against Colorado, receiving a standing ovation when he checked in to the game, then played another six minutes on Saturday against Utah.

Iwuchukwu, who is still expected to be under a minutes restriction this week at Arizona and Arizona State, has not granted a media interview since returning, according to USC. The Star’s request to interview USC coach Andy Enfield this week was unsuccessful, but Enfield was encouraging in an October interview with the Los Angeles Times.

“Vince has a long career ahead of him, and ... his infectious energy and his infectious personality are great for our program,” Enfield said. “He’s bounced back very quickly, so we’re excited to have him back.”

The flip side

Playing in the Eastern Time Zone at Campbell during the previous three seasons, UA forward Cedric Henderson occasionally found himself spending late nights watching some of the bigger Pac-12 matchups.

Like, say, Arizona against USC or Arizona against UCLA.

The kind of games he’ll be playing in this weekend.

“It’s crazy,” Henderson said. “That’s the one thing I can say — the fans go hard, it’s packed. Every single seat is taken up, and everybody loves it. I can’t wait to play in that.”

The flip side of playing at Arizona, as Henderson has also found, is that teams that generate that sort of attention also generate a fair amount of concern when they lose two out of their last three games— as Arizona has.

But Henderson says he understands that too.

“it’s not overkill at all,” Henderson said. “The expectations are what they should be — high. I mean, you’re at a program that is amazing with a great coach, with great guys, and we expect the best at all times. So if you’re losing to teams we shouldn’t be losing to — they’re good teams, don’t get me wrong ... but I think we do believe that we’re better than them, and we have to show it.”

Weekend squeeze

If it isn’t enough for Arizona to be hosting two teams ahead of them in the Pac-12 race this weekend, there’s also the fact that the Wildcats will be transitioning quickly from a Thursday-night game into a Saturday-afternoon game for the third straight week (and Arizona will actually have to do it again next weekend in Washington).

The good news for the Wildcats is that the Saturday games allow maximum exposure. Their Jan. 14 game at Oregon was carried to a prime-time audience in the East via ESPN, while Saturday’s UA-UCLA game will be shown over the air via ABC at noon locally and 2 p.m. in the East.

“Scheduling is dictated by TV, and you’re getting put in primetime slots, which is an envious position to be in, so we’re not complaining,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said. “We’re not overthinking it. We’re hoping we play well Thursday, fully energized, and turn around Saturday and play fully energized.”

Numbers game

0 — USC losses in its nine games that tipped off locally at 7 p.m. or later so far this season.

0 — Arizona losses in its six games that tipped off locally at 7 p.m. or later so far this season. (The Wildcats also won two late-day Maui Invitational games, against Cincinnati and San Diego State, that started after 7 p.m. Arizona time.)

39.1 — Arizona’s field-goal percentage in calendar 2023 (four games), including 29.7% from 3-point range.

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