Arizona has avenged two of its four losses already this season, and history suggests a third one happens Thursday.
Not just because the eighth-ranked Wildcats will be hosting Utah this time before a McKale Center crowd that Utes coach Craig Smith says can βimpact the game in a big-time way.β And not just because the Wildcats figure to be a bit more focused this time, with their 81-66 loss at Utah on Dec. 1 coming after a head-swelling Maui Invitational championship run.
The Wildcats might beat the Utes this time simply because the game is on Thursday.
Although Arizonaβs Dec. 1 loss actually came on a Thursday, it happened well before the Pac-12βs usual Thursday-Saturday grind, when the Wildcats had a full week without a game to soak up the Maui vibes. They went snorkeling, made the long flight home, took some time off and then journeyed unsuccessfully to the cold and high altitude of Salt Lake City.
βWe got punched,β UA coach Tommy Lloyd said. βWe got punched by a good team that was playing at home and had a spirited effort. Thatβs what I remember.β
Since then, all the Wildcatsβ losses have arrived on Saturday, just two days after a Thursday-night victory.
βMaybe thatβs the theme,β Lloyd said. βI donβt know. Itβs something we gotta figure out.β
Maybe that has something to do with Lloydβs shrunken seven-man rotation tiring out a little on Saturdays. Or maybe itβs just because the Wildcats are sometimes playing better teams then.
Maybe itβs not a trend at all. But hereβs a look at what the Wildcats are doing markedly better on Thursdays than Saturdays since New Yearβs β¦ and why that might or might not matter:
1. They defend better
The Wildcats have held Thursday-night opponents to just 39% shooting overall and 31.3% from 3-point range. But on Saturdays, those figures balloon to 43.8% and 35.7%.
Because 3-point percentage defense is subject to several variables, the decline in the Wildcatsβ 2-point defense on Saturdays might be more directly attributed to fatigue or a lack of sharpness.
However, it is worth noting that Oregon ranks No. 1 in Pac-12 2-point percentage during conference games β and the Ducks shot 71.9% from 2 in their 87-68 win over Arizona on Jan. 14 in Eugene.
Stanford, meanwhile, is tied with UCLA and Oregon State in Pac-12 games in 3-point shooting (35.3) and hit 10 of 18 3s in its 88-79 win over Arizona last Saturday.
The Ducks and Cardinal had the potential to stretch the Wildcatsβ defense any day of the week.
2. They shoot better
Does this sound too obvious so far? Then letβs pause here for Lloydβs take on all this, and the danger of overanalysis.
βAlways, when you lose β¦ youβre probably not going to have rebounded as well, youβre probably not going to have shot as well,β Lloyd said. βEvery team can look at those things in their wins and losses. I donβt think any team says `Man, when we win, we shoot it poorly and the other team shoots it great.β β
Still the drops in Arizonaβs shooting are pretty significant, suggesting again that the Wildcats might be just a little more fatigued or a little less motivated on Saturdays.
Arizonaβs overall shooting drops from 47.6% on Thursdays to 42.3% on Saturdays, while its 3-point shooting sinks from 40.4% to 34.4%.
3. Perimeter players more efficient
Although UA guard Kerr Kriisa is actually scoring more in Saturday games (9.8) than on Thursdays (9.3), his Thursday 3-point rate of 35.6% drops to 30.2% on Saturdays.
Moreover, Kriisa averages 6.7 assists and a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio on Thursdays but just 3.7 assists and a 1.6 ratio on Saturdays.
Then again, Kriisa, the assist leader in Pac-12 games (5.6), was bound to have a tougher time on Saturdays: Heβs had to face two of the conferenceβs other top-five assist leaders only during the second game of a weekend β UCLAβs Tyger Campbell (5.4) and Stanfordβs Harrison Ingram (4.0).
In Arizonaβs 58-52 win over UCLA on Jan. 21, Campbell had seven assists and only two turnovers while Kriisa had two assists and four turnovers. Last Saturday, in Stanfordβs 88-79 win over Arizona, Ingram had seven assists and three turnovers while Kriisa had one assist and two turnovers.
Meanwhile, in six Thursday games since New Yearβs, UA junior Pelle Larsson is averaging 11.2 points and shooting 54.2%.
But Larsson, who is also known for the considerable energy he spends defensively guarding nearly every position on the floor, hasnβt been the same shooter on Saturdays. On those days, he averages 7.5 points and shoots just 10% from 3.
The 3-point shooting of two other wings dips from Thursday to Saturday but not as drastically: Senior Cedric Henderson drops from 47.4% to 29.4%, and freshman Kylan Boswell goes from 45.5% to 33.3%.
Maybe thereβs something to all that, maybe not. But individual shooting is another one Lloyd isnβt wild about digging into.
βYou know what? Iβm expecting if Pelleβs open, the ball has a good chance to go in, and I want him shooting it that way,β Lloyd said. βI donβt want him thinking `Well, itβs a Saturday, I should probably turn this shot down. But Thursday, Iβm gonna shoot it.β
βNow youβre overanalyzing things, and I donβt think that helps the players.β
4. Maybe Lloydβs better on Thursdays, too
Asked jokingly if heβs a better coach on Thursdays, Lloyd smiled and said he didnβt know.
But for what itβs worth, also consider this: In the 13 times heβs coached the Wildcats during true two-game weekend pairings β which disregards Arizonaβs loss at UCLA last season in a Tuesday COVID-makeup game β Lloyd is 13-0 on Thursdays.
Heβs 9-4 on Saturdays.
That, again, might mean nothing. But Lloyd did say he felt responsible for the Wildcatsβ loss at Stanford in part because of βoverscoutingβ the Cardinal, prompting UA players to make too many decisions on the court because of a complicated game plan.
βIβm wearing this loss, too,β Lloyd said. βThe players obviously have to hold up their end of the bargain, and weβve all talked about that, but I didnβt feel like I was at my best on Saturday. Thatβs something that hits home to me.
βI always want to put our team in the best position possible to win. Saturday probably wasnβt my best effort, either.β
5. They rebound better
This might be as significant a difference as any between Arizonaβs Thursday and Saturday games: Arizona has a rebound margin of plus-7.0 on Thursdays but only 1.4 on Saturdays.
You can guess where that trend starts: Forward Azuolas Tubelis averages 12.0 on Thursday but just 8.0 on Saturdays, while center Oumar Ballo drops from 9.5 to 7.2.
But β¦ the two opponents Arizona has only played on Saturday are two of the Pac-12βs best rebounding teams: UCLA is first in offensive rebounding percentage (37.3) and second in defensive rebounding percentage (72.7), while Stanford is second in offensive rebounding percentage (33.3) and third on the defensive side (71.2).
The Bruins and Cardinal probably would have made things pretty tough on the glass no matter when the game was played.
βI know weβve played really well on other Saturdays, so Iβm not going to overthink it,β Lloyd said of all the Thursday-Saturday splits. βI think the theme is, when we play well and spirited and tough, weβre hard to beat. When weβre not, weβre beatable.β