With hosting 1st round of NCAA Tourney on line, Wildcats must do one thing: Win

February is never easy for the Wildcats.

This time we thought we had it all figured out when Arizona beat then-No. 4 Utah and No. 21 Colorado last weekend, reaching five wins over Top 25 programs this season.

Then, a little more than two hours before the Pac-12 After Dark matchup at Oregon started Thursday night, the Wildcats looked to be in even better position for the postseason.

In the second reveal of the top 16 for the NCAA Tournament, Arizona was the No. 15 seed — which meant, if the tournament were played that day, the Wildcats would be hosting.

Everything was all set … until it wasn’t. With the Wildcats showing a lack of energy against Oregon and not playing Arizona ball, they allowed the Ducks to steal the game, 73-59.

Now, the Wildcats are back in familiar territory: Not knowing if they will be hosting or traveling for the first rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

One thing that is for sure: No. 14 Arizona’s final game of the regular season against Oregon State at Gill Coliseum on Saturday has a lot of significance.

Not only is UA (21-7, 11-6 Pac-12) vying for positioning in the NCAA Tournament, but the Wildcats are also jockeying for their spot in the Pac-12 Tournament, which starts on Wednesday in Las Vegas.

Arizona has locked up its fourth consecutive top-four seed in the Pac-12 Tournament, but it isn’t known yet if it’s the third or fourth seed.

When Arizona coach Adia Barnes was asked earlier in the week if she thought the Wildcats’ seeding for the league tournament would come down to the final day of the regular season, she said, “Absolutely not.”

“But we have total control in that," she said.

They still do. They have to win to have any shot at the No. 3 seed. But the Wildcats also must rely on Cal beating Colorado for both the Wildcats and Buffs to finish with 12-6 league records. With Cal coming in at 4-13 in Pac-12, on paper it seems unlikely. But Cal has played teams tough, including losing only by four to Stanford and knocking off USC in overtime.

With both teams tied, UA would most likely end up taking the third seed. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition, and they split their two games. With both teams having 1-3 records vs. Stanford and Utah, the next tiebreaker would be their records against the next top teams, USC or UCLA. Arizona would have the advantage there.

If all this sounds confusing, well, it is. Earlier in the week, Barnes and her staff spent quite some time figuring out all the scenarios — and there were even more before Thursday night’s games.

This is not the first time it has gone down to the wire — especially in a league predicted to have seven teams in the NCAAs: Stanford, Utah, UA, Colorado, UCLA, USC and Washington State. In the latest ESPN bracketology, Oregon was listed as the first team out.

Just a few weeks ago, Washington, which is in the eighth spot, defeated Stanford, which is in first place. And Thursday night, ninth-seeded Oregon beat UA.

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A look back

Looking back at previous Februarys for the Wildcats under Barnes, few have been smooth sailing. Starting with the 2018-19 season, when they won the WNIT championship, they lost the final four games of the season — two in overtime to Cal and then-No. 9 Oregon State. They won one game in the Pac-12 Tournament and went on a six-game winning streak to win the title. UA finished 24-13.

The following season the Wildcats were on track to do something special. They finished 24-7 before COVID shut down the world and canceled the NCAA Tournament. That February, down the stretch, they lost to Colorado, had the big upset over Stanford, then lost to Cal by one point on the final day of the regular season. The Wildcats avenged the loss a few days later, beating Cal 86-73 in the Pac-12 Tournament as Cate Reese dropped a 30-piece.

In the 2020-21 season, the Wildcats lost the final two games of the regular season to Stanford and ASU. Then they put it all together to make the magical run to the NCAA title game. They finished 21-6.

A year ago, hosting was also a question. Reese went down with a shoulder injury with seven minutes left in the WSU loss. UA followed that up with another loss to UCLA before beating USC to finish the regular season. The Wildcats lost their first game in Vegas but ended up hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament anyway. In Reese’s return game against UNLV, she scored 16 points. But two days later the wear and tear on her shoulder was too much, as she was only able to muster six points and five rebounds as UA lost to North Carolina, 63-45.

A look ahead

While the loss to Oregon doesn’t really help Arizona, in an odd way, it might not end up hurting them that much — especially if they can win Saturday. The Ducks were on a seven-game losing streak and aren’t nearly as good as they were in the past, yet their NET ranking has now gone from 25 to 21 with their win over UA.

Regardless, it’s all about winning.

It starts with Oregon State, which is on a nine-game skid after letting one slip away against ASU Thursday night, 75-73, despite the heroic effort of former Arizona player Bendu Yeaney. Yeaney was one rebound shy of a triple-double with 12 points, 13 assists, nine rebounds. She also had three blocked shots and three steals.

OSU is also without Talia von Oelhoffen, who announced Thursday that her season was over because of an injury she has been battling for a while. Von Oelhoffen is the Beavers' leading scorer (13.2 points per game) and one of their top distributors, dishing 3.3 assists per game.

Barnes also believes the Wildcats have “to kill it in the Pac-12 Tournament” to host the NCAAs. Only time will tell.

Arizona has responded well after loses this season, never losing two consecutive games.

For now, the Wildcats are focused on the Beavers and regaining that underdog mentality that has served them well in the past.