Without an NCAA Tournament to polish things up, Arizona produced a 2019-20 season that was unremarkable by the program’s lofty standards.
But there’s still one more chance for the 2019-20 Wildcats to stand out in their history book. They could generate three first-round picks in the same draft for the first time in program history.
Arizona has had 22 first-round picks in history, but never more than two in one year. And that’s only happened three times — including once in the Sean Miller era, when Stanley Johnson went eighth and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson went 23rd in the 2015 draft.
NBA mock drafts suggest there’s less than a 50% chance it’ll happen this year, with Josh Green, Nico Mannion and forward Zeke Nnaji on the board. Only Green appears to be a near-certain first rounder, while Nnaji and Mannion are projected in that late-first round to mid-second round range where anything can happen.
“The lower end of the first round makes sense to me on all three of them,” said former Lipscomb standout Jerry Meyer, who has watched all three for years as an analyst for 247Sports.com.
But no matter what, there’s another source of intrigue: Nobody really knows which former UA player will be picked first, who has the most upside or who will have the best NBA career.
Is it Green because of his jump-out-of-the-gym athleticism, improving shooting and defensive potential?
Is it Green’s longtime buddy, Mannion, who has on-court savvy, a wide array of shots he can make and well-regarded athleticism?
Some experts believe Zeke Nnaji has the potential to be an NBA standout but a lower “floor” than his UA teammates,
Or maybe it’s Nnaji, who came out of (almost) nowhere to lead the Wildcats in scoring and rebounding last season with a remarkable efficiency, despite not having the high school recruiting hype that Green and Mannion bathed in.
While Green is generally regarded as the most likely of the three to go first, UA grad and NBA scout Matt Babcock isn’t so sure. The son of a former NBA player personnel director, with two uncles who have been NBA general manager, Babcock posted a mock draft with Nnaji going 17th, well before Green (28th) and Mannion (45th).
“Zeke’s draft stock seems to be peaking at the right time, as the draft is right around the corner,” Babcock told the Star. “I fully expect Zeke to be a first-round pick, and it’s even possible that he could be the first Wildcat selected.”
Meyer also said he thought Nnaji had the most upside of the three — but possibly also the most downside.
“If you want to take a flyer, it might be Zeke,” Meyer said. “With Nico and Josh, obviously they’re going to get better but in a sense, it’s sort of what you see is what you get. They have a lower upside than Nnaji.
“It’s kind of like projecting what they will look like, say, six years down the road: I feel pretty assured with (Green and Mannion) that it won’t be that far off. But with Zeke, you have that hesitation of ‘Who knows, man, this dude can explode.’
“Maybe he a lower floor — there might be a higher probability he could flame out compared to Josh or Nico — but there’s a possibility he might turn into something really special. He’s 6-11, can run, rebound and he has the potential to really expand his offense.”
Josh Green’s athleticism could make him extra attractive to NBA executives.
In a sense, even Green’s upside may be seen in varied terms. Babcock said he’s heard rumors that Green could be “as a high mid-first round option by some teams and as more of a second-round option for others,” while he was less optimistic about Mannion, who was considered a lottery pick before he suited up at Arizona.
Part of the reason for Mannion’s high draft stock out of high school was his appearance for Italy’s senior national team in a 2018 World Cup qualifying game, when —as a 17-year-old — he scored nine points in 29 minutes against the Netherlands.
Mannion also excelled for the World team in the Nike Hoop Summit in April 2019, with Babcock saying he played well throughout the week of practices beforehand and in the game.
“I walked away from that event thinking that Nico was a surefire lottery pick in the 2020 NBA Draft,” Babcock said. “But with the combination of an up-and-down freshman season and an extremely deep group of point guards this year, Mannion’s draft status seems to be very unstable, to say the least.
“As a fellow Wildcat myself, I’m surely hoping that he will be selected in the first round, but I fear that he is more likely to be a second-round pick at this point. The good news for Nico is that regardless of where he’s selected I’m confident he will have a fair opportunity to earn success in the NBA.”
