This is Vegas, baby, Vegas, home of short skirts and long odds.
Not everyone goes home a winner in Sin City. In fact, it’s usually pretty easy to separate the winners from the losers, just by the shirts on their backs. (As in, the winners still have theirs.)
We set some odds for the Pac-12 Tournament, but you won’t find these in any sportsbook.
Odds that Arizona ends up in the Pac-12 Tournament championship game: Even: With the league featuring two other March Madness contenders (UCLA, USC) and another three teams who’ve been feisty down the stretch (Colorado, Oregon, Washington State), maybe these odds are ridiculous. But look, Arizona has been in the title game in six of the last 10 tournaments, and truly, the Wildcats don’t have a weakness this year. How’s this for a stat: Arizona ranks no lower than sixth in any team statistical category among Pac-12 counterparts.. (Those categories: Turnover margin, defensive rebounding percentage and scoring defense.) Then again, the team ranks first in the conference in scoring offense, scoring margin, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, offensive rebounding, rebounding margin, blocked shots, assists, assist/turnover ratio, defensive rebounds per game and offensive rebounding percentage.
Odds that Bennedict Mathurin ends up Pac-12 Tournament MVP: 3-to-1: Should Arizona in fact win the conference tournament, Mathurin is the most obvious selection for MVP favorites after putting up 11 20-point games this season. He’s also a double-double threat and one of the league’s top 3-point shooters, which is a recipe for postseason honors. He’ll face a crowded field, including his teammate, Azuolas Tubelis, UCLA’s Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. and USC’s Isaiah Mobley.
Odds that Terrell Brown Jr. ends up with the most Pac-12 free throws: 3-to-1: If Washington wins even one game in the tournament, Brown could very well be tops from the charity stripe. The league’s leading scorer, Brown has turned the charity stripe into a first-class rental property. The former Wildcat had 212 free throws in the regular season, more than 60 ahead of Colorado’s Jabari Walker. Brown had eight or more free throws 10 times this year.
Oregon coach Dana Altman comes out on the court during the second half of their Feb. 19 game against the UA. A savvy coach with a talented roster, Altman could will Oregon into the NCAA Tournament with a Pac-12 Tournament title.
Odds that Dana Altman ends up with his fourth Pac-12 Tournament trophy: 4-to-1: The Oregon Ducks will have to navigate a deep field against teams with more talent, but don’t put it past Altman to work his usual postseason magic. Oregon has won three Pac-12 titles since 2013 — as a No. 3 seed, a No. 1 seed and No. 6 seed, tying Arizona for the most tournament titles since 2010. The Ducks don’t have the kind of high impact star that has led them to past tourney success, but don’t write off Altman.
Odds that Bobby Hurley ends up coaching his last game for Arizona State: 3-to-1: One of the college game’s all-time great players, Hurley’s East Coast grit hasn’t translated well for the Sun Devils. With more blow-ups at officials than NCAA Tournament appearances in his Tempe tenure, Hurley’s act may be wearing thin. After back-to-back NCAA bids in 2018 and 2019 — and a probable third straight in 2020 before it was cancelled due to COVID-19 — the Sun Devils crashed under the weight of big expectations last year and haven’t rebounded well this year. Locked up until 2024, though, Hurley should be safe.
Odds that a team other than Arizona, UCLA or USC ends up winning the tournament: 6-to-1: There hasn’t been this much concentrated talent at the top of the league in five years. Back then, it was UCLA’s Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf, Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen, Kadeem Allen and Allonzo Trier and Oregon’s Dillon Brooks and Jordan Bell that led the three teams to a combined 16 losses. Now USC has jumped into the fray with the Wildcats and Bruins, and the talented trio is miles ahead of the rest of the league.
Odds that Washington State ends up that team: 2-to-1: Call us crazy, but the Cougars may be the underdog most set up for a surprising run. The Cougars have the league’s top scoring game this season — they put up 109 in a November throttling of Idaho — and also the Pac-12’s individual game high for field goals (vs. Idaho), 3-pointers (15 against USC on Feb. 20) and free throw percentage (13 for 13 at Washington on Feb. 26).
Odds that Christian Koloko ends up leading the tournament in blocked shots: 1-to-10: Barring an injury, there almost isn’t a scenario in which Arizona’s Christian Koloko does not continue his rejection projections. Koloko had nearly as many blocked shots as the league’s next two best rim protectors combined. Averaging nearly three blocks per game, Koloko owns the paint like few in the country. You’re not getting past him even on a pogo stick.
Odds that Wayne Tinkle ends up coaching his last game for Oregon State: 4-to-1: Perhaps the odds should be higher, as the Beavers couldn’t get much lower. Coming off a surprising Elite Eight run last year, no one could have foreseen this: a 3-27 regular-season record, the worst in program history. How on earth did this happen? Since a 88-76 win over Utah on Dec. 30, the Beavers have not won. They’re winless in 2022! What?! After signing Tinkle to a huge extension after last year’s run, the Beavers are going to have to dig their way out of this.
Odds that the leading scorer ends up on a team that doesn’t win the title: 2-to-1: Last year, Arizona State’s Alonzo Verge Jr. led the Pac-12 Tournament in scoring despite playing just two games. That’s almost shocking. Will that happen again? Doubtful. But with so much scoring talent dispersed among the league’s top teams, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a runner-up — or even a semifinalist — get hot in a few games and top the tourney.
Odds that the Pac-12 ends up with four NCAA Tournament teams: 2-to-1: With three locks, this assumes that another team wins the Pac-12 title. But a nice tourney run might just put Colorado over the top. The Buffaloes ended the regular season with 20 wins, including a late-season win over Arizona that might be fresh in the minds of selection committee members. If the Buffaloes can reel off three wins in Las Vegas, that might punch their ticket.
Odds that Tommy Lloyd ends up cutting down the nets in T-Mobile Arena: 2-to-1: It would be unfair to call Arizona the odds-on favorites in Las Vegas, not with UCLA and USC boasting as much talent as they do. But the Wildcats will certainly have the best odds to take it home, as they have seven times in the tournament’s nearly quarter-century history. Lloyd would be the first coach to win the conference in his debut season in history; only Tad Boyle at Colorado (2015) won by Year 2.
