Scouting report: Arizona Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado (6-1, 0-0) at Arizona (6-1, 0-1) • McKale Center • 7:30 p.m. • Pac-12 Networks • 1290-AM, 107.5-FM

PROBABLE STARTERS

ARIZONA

G James Akinjo (6-0 junior)

G Jemarl Baker (6-5 junior)

F Dalen Terry (6-7 freshman)

F Azuolas Tubelis (6-11 freshman)

C Jordan Brown (6-11 sophomore)

COLORADO

G McKinley Wright (6-0 senior)

G Eli Parquet (6-4 junior)

F D’Shawn Schwartz (6-7 senior)

F Evan Battey (6-8 junior)

C Dallas Walton (7-0 senior)

HOW THEY MATCH UP

The series: Arizona leads Colorado 20-14 overall, is 15-6 against the Buffs since they joined the Pac-12 in 2011-12, and has never lost to CU at McKale Center (though the Buffs did beat the Wildcats in Tucson three times in the 1960s). The teams met only once last season, with UA winning 75-54 on Jan. 18 at McKale Center, when Zeke Nnaji led a balanced UA attack with 12 points and 12 rebounds.

This season: The Wildcats and Buffaloes were scheduled to meet only once this season under the Pac-12’s 10-year rotation plan, but the would-be skipped game at McKale was added back when the Pac-12 opted to play 20 games this season. UA and CU are scheduled to meet again on Feb. 6 at Boulder, where Estonian guard Kerr Kriisa is scheduled to be eligible for his first game after the NCAA ruled he must sit out 70% of UA’s games this season.

Colorado overview: After ending last season with five straight losses – including a Pac-12 Tournament game with Washington State that was the last fully played game in college basketball before the pandemic shutdown – the Buffs generated considerably less preseason hype this season. But they might be just as good: CU is ranked in the Kenpom’s Top 30 overall in both offensive (29) and defensive (23) efficiency despite playing only two of their seven games at home so far and with COVID-19-limited rosters in some games.

Colorado has a strong core of returning players, led by point guard McKinley Wright, big man Evan Battey and wing D’Shawn Schwartz. Tulsa grad transfer Jeriah Horne is helping offset the losses of Tyler Bey (NBA) and Lucas Siewert (out of eligibility). Horne is playing off the bench, but averaging starter’s minutes (23.6) while becoming the Buffaloes’ leading rebounder (6.0) and their second-leading scorer (11.4) behind Wright. He’s also made half of his 24 3-point shots, while Schwartz leads the Buffs in 3-point percentage at 53.8, Wright is making 42.1% from 3 so far and even 7-footer Dallas Walton has thrown in 4 of 7 3-point attempts.

The Buffs shoot 37.5% overall from 3 but are better at the line, where they hit 85.8% of their free throws, the second-best mark in Division I. CU is an average rebounding team overall but Horne is a good defensive rebounder (getting the ball 22.6% of the times he’s in the game) and Walton ranks 325th nationally with an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.6.

While the Buffs historically have a similar man-to-man philosophy as Arizona, they played a zone defense heavily against Tennessee.

THE SCOUT SAYS

“They have some older experienced guys. D’Shawn Schwartz is a multiple-year starter. Evan Battey is a multiple-year starter. Dallas Walton is a fifth-year guy so they’re experienced and very skilled. They play four bigs who can make you pay from the perimeter if you don’t guard them. So not only do they have great size but they have shooting ability.

“Walton is a good-shot blocker, a good offensive rebounder and capable in the paint but probably his best skill is his shooting ability from the perimeter. Battey uses his body well and he’s quick on his feet. You look at a bigger heavier guy and you think ‘slow plodder’ but he doesn’t play like that at all. He’s a good driver and a capable shooter as well. He’s a load defensively on the glass.

“Horne is one of if not their best 3-point shooters, a guy who will set a screen and pop. You have to know where he’s at on the court. They have a lot of guys who can hurt you — Eli Parquet, Maddox Daniels and Keeshawn Barthelemy — but it boils down to McKinley Wright. He’s the guy who makes them go. You have to be able to defend McKinley Wright and it’s not just one guy. It’s the whole team.”

— UA associate head coach Jack Murphy, who scouted the Buffaloes

KEY PLAYERS

COLORADO

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McKinley Wright

If its happening offensively for the Buffs, chances are it has a lot to do with their veteran point guard. Not only is Wright Colorado’s leading scorer, but he’s rated among the Top 75 players nationally in both effective field goal percentage (weighing 3-pointers 50% higher) and in true shooting percentage (with free throws factored in). He’s also ranked 27th nationally in assist rate, a measure of assists divided by his teammate’s field goals when he’s on the floor.

ARIZONA

Azuolas Tubelis

The skilled Lithuanian freshman big man was promoted to the starting lineup last Tuesday against Montana because he’s increasingly been productive across the board but he’ll have a stiff challenge inside against the Buffs’ veteran bigs: Evan Battey is deceivingly quick for a 260-pounder, while Horne and Walton can take defenders outside.

SIDELINES

So who’s gonna flop?

During his “we have to kind of join the party and flop” speech after the Wildcats picked up seven offensive fouls against Eastern Washington, Arizona coach Sean Miller suggested the Wildcats need to adjust to this season’s officiating and he’s since repeated that assertion in other forms.

But the way Colorado coach Tad Boyle described it, Monday’s CU-UA game will be physical anyway, at least on the glass. Arizona is outrebounding opponents by 11.3 and posting the 12th-best offensive rebounding percentage (38.4) in Division I. Against a tougher schedule so far, Colorado is outrebounding opponents by six, but its offensive and defensive rebounding percentages rank between 75 and 100.

“Every time you play Arizona, you have to be ready to compete and battle on the backboards because they’re physical and aggressive,” Boyle said. “I always say, Arizona never beats themselves, you have to go beat Arizona and rebound.

“Every team we’ve played this year has two, maybe two-and-a-half, maybe three bigs. But Arizona has four of them, like we do. So I’m sure Sean feels like he’s got 20 fouls among his bigs just like we’ve got 20 fouls among ours and the most aggressive team is gonna come out on top.”

It’s better than nothing

Having played in four different but mostly empty arenas already this season, Boyle called the experience “a little bit sad.”

But it could be worse, as the abrupt cancellation of college basketball was on March 12.

“This game is about our young men who want to compete and want to play in front of packed arenas and fans and parents,” Boyle said. “The most disappointing thing to me is how we haven’t figured out a way to get parents to these games in 10,000-seat arenas. It just boggles my mind. I’m not a health expert and I don’t pretend to be but how can’t we get 50 parents from both teams in there? That’s sad.

“But look, we’re playing. I think our players have done a really good job of relishing the opportunity to play because they know what it’s like to not play. I’m thankful for what we have. I’m thankful for our health. I don’t want to ever want to pretend like there’s not a pandemic going around and there’s not people who are dying. And there’s a lot of a lot of bad things that are happening in our world.

“But college basketball and football, any college sport, is kind of a nugget of hope and escape. Our players need it mentally.”

Starter in disguise

The qualifying criteria for the Pac-12’s Sixth Man of the Year award is that a player doesn’t start more than a third of his team’s league games. Despite Jeriah Horne’s productivity for Colorado, that may not be a problem.

As ASU coach Bobby Hurley did last season with Alonzo Verge, the Pac-12’s 2019-20 Sixth Man, Boyle is fine with playing Horne as a forward off the bench even while he averages 11.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and hits more than three 3-pointers at a 50% rate.

“I love our rotation right now,” Boyle said. “I like the flow of our offense. Jeriah is very good coming off the bench. He’s a totally different look than Dallas and Evan are when he comes in the game. We’ve talked about it in our staff meetings, but it has got no traction. And he’s gonna play a lot of minutes, we know that. Somebody’s got to be Sixth Man of the Year in the league right? Might as well be Jeriah.”

Numbers game

5.1 — Arizona’s average blocked shots per game. The Wildcats haven’t averaged five or more blocks for a season since 1999-2000, when Loren Woods (3.9) helped them average 5.6 per game.

37.5 — Percent of 3-point shots both Arizona and Colorado make, tying them for the lead in the Pac-12.

105 — Minutes Terrell Brown has played without a turnover. He has 23 assists to just three turnovers for the season, the third-best ratio nationally.

— Bruce Pascoe