Arizona men's basketball: Scouting report for Big 12 semifinal vs. Texas Tech

No. 3 seed Arizona (21-11) vs. No. 2 seed Texas Tech (25-7) | Big 12 Tournament semifinals | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City | 8:30 p.m. Friday | ESPN2 | 1290-AM

Probable starters

ARIZONA

G Jaden Bradley (6-3 junior)

G Caleb Love (6-4 senior)

F Anthony Dell’Orso (6-6 junior)

F Henri Veesaar (7-0 sophomore)

C Tobe Awaka (6-8 junior)

TEXAS TECH

G Elijah Hawkins (5-11 senior)

G Christian Anderson (6-2 freshman)

F Kerwin Walton (6-5 senior)

G Darrion Williams (6-6 junior)

C JT Toppin (6-9 sophomore)

How they match up 

How they got here: Arizona went 14-6 in the Big 12 to finish in a third-place tie, then beat sixth-seeded Kansas 88-77 in the quarterfinals Thursday. Texas Tech went 15-5 to finish alone in second, then held on to beat seventh-seeded Baylor 76-74 in a semifinal game earlier Thursday night.

This season: Arizona and Texas Tech each held serve on their homecourts. The Red Raiders handed the Wildcats their first Big 12 loss, 70-54, on Jan. 18 in Lubbock, Texas, where eventual Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin had 20 points and 16 rebounds and the Wildcats hit just 3 of 18 3-point shots. On Feb. 8 at McKale, UA beat Texas Tech 82-73 when five Wildcats scored 14 or more points and the Wildcats held the Red Raiders to just 37.1% shooting.

Series history: Arizona trails 30-24 in the alltime series with its former Border Conference rival, though the Wildcats won seven straight before the schools met in Big 12 play this season, including two wins in a home-and-home series during the Sean Miller era.

What’s new with the Red Raiders: Texas Tech won five of its final eight Big 12 games after losing at McKale, with wins over Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas, Colorado and two wins over ASU, including a double-overtime game at Tempe. The Red Raiders lost only to TCU and Houston during that stretch.

Toppin was named the Big 12 Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year after becoming the league’s third-leading scorer (17.9) and rebounder (8.7) while also being the Big 12’s second-highest percentage shooter (55.1).

Texas Tech has the No. 6 most efficient offense in Kenpom calculations, with an eight-man rotation that features five players who averaged in double figures during conference games.

While Toppin is a physical and skilled player inside, the Red Raiders also rank 18th in 3-point shooting percentage and take 44.6% of their shots from beyond the arc. Three key players are shooting over 40% from long range: Chance McMillian (43.4), Christian Anderson (41.0) and Kerwin Walton 40.5).

The Red Raiders also average 54.4% from two-point range and take care of the ball, turning it over on only 14.9% of possessions – and only 5.8% of the time via non-steal turnovers.

He said it: "They're one of the most disciplined teams in the country. They know what they want to do and they're able to execute it with a lot of certainty. When they make a plan they have a conviction to stick with it and it's really impressive.

"Obviously they're playing with great confidence. They're shooting the ball well. They have two guys that are matchup problems, their big guys (Toppin and Darrion Williams).

"It's just a great team and they're having a great season."

-- UA coach Tommy Lloyd 

Key players

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Texas Tech – JT Toppin

With an unusual combination of a soft scoring touch and physical style, Toppin didn’t make it easy on anyone in the Big 12, and Arizona was no exception: Toppin had 20 points and 16 rebounds to lead TTU over Arizona on Jan. 18 and added another 21 and 13 at McKale a month later.

Arizona – Carter Bryant

Even during the Wildcats’ struggles throughout a backloaded Big 12 schedule, the Wildcats’ freshman forward has improved his efficiency. He had seven points, two blocks and hit 2 of 4 3-pointers to help the Wildcats hold off Kansas in the Big 12 quarterfinals.

Sidelines

Cashing in

Getting off to an 11-1 start in Big 12 play may have paid off especially on Thursday night for Arizona.

The fast start allowed the Wildcats to still finish a third-place tie despite losing five of their last eight regular-season games — and still hang on to one of the Big 12’s four double-byes in the conference tournament.

Kansas, ranked No. 1 in the preseason and picked to win the league, finished sixth. As such, the Jayhawks had to play in a second-round game Wednesday, then needed overtime to hold off UCF.

The Jayhawks' extra 45 minutes of stressful work Thursday may have led to fatigue that overcame momentum and confidence late in Thursday’s game, when Arizona outscored Kansas 18-8 over the final 5:43.

“That's why you play a 20-game regular season and fortunately our guys earned the double bye,” Lloyd said, “and when you earn something like that, hopefully you take advantage of it. So I'm sure it helped us a little bit today.”

Kansas coach Bill Self seemed to think it did.

“Arizona came rested and they had all week to prepare for us — they were ready to play,” Self said. “You could tell — didn't you guys think it was a different energy they had?”

Still, Kansas center Hunter Dickinson said he didn’t think fatigue could be blamed.

“In this NIL era we are paid to play, so you've got to be professionals and approach it like professionals,” Dickinson said. “You can't give that excuse.”

McMillian questionable

Texas Tech guard Chance McMillian did not play in the second half of the Red Raiders’ win over Baylor because of an upper body strain, and his status remains unclear for Friday’s game against Arizona.

McMillian tried playing 13 minutes in the first half Thursday but went scoreless on 0-for-3 shooting.

“I've coached Chance enough to know when I feel like he's confident and when I feel like he can play because he's always gonna say he's gonna play," Coach Grant McCasland said. "He was like 'I'll go out there and play' but I just know the difference.”

New champ coming

With Kansas’ loss to Arizona, the Big 12 is guaranteed to have a first-time winner for its conference tournament.

Of the four teams in Friday’s semifinal, Arizona is new to the league this season, Houston and BYU were new last season and didn’t win the conference tournament, while Texas Tech has never won it in 27 tries. The Red Raiders have reached the championship game twice, in 2005 and 2022, but lost both times.

Numbers game

4: JT Toppin’s rank in the analytically based Kenpom Player of the Year standings, behind only Duke’s Cooper Flagg, Auburn’s Johni Broome and Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson.

7: Texas Tech’s predicted finish in the Big 12’s official preseason poll.

15: Texas Tech 3-pointers made against Baylor, the most by the Red Raiders in a Big 12 Tournament game.

— Bruce Pascoe