By the time the Pac-12 basketball season officially starts Thursday, it will have been nearly three months since the league’s official preseason poll was released — plenty of time for injuries, adjustments and surprise developments to shake things up even before the first tipoff.
Yet the predicted order of finish at the top of the Pac-12 still probably wouldn’t be a whole lot different today.
It’s just that nearly everyone is a little bit better than expected.
The league’s top pick, Oregon, blazed through a difficult nonconference schedule and then added five-star big man N’Faly Dante at the semester break, losing only close games with Gonzaga and North Carolina. Colorado, picked second, struggled with consistency but still picked up a trio of quality wins.
Then there’s Washington, looking like the third-place finisher it was predicted to be, fortified with two five-star freshmen bigs and the earlier-than-expected addition of Kentucky transfer guard Quade Green. Picked fourth, new-look Arizona cruised at home early and picked up a Wooden Legacy title before stumbling in three of its past four games.
And with predicted fifth-place finisher USC (11-2) on a five-game winning streak, ASU (9-4) might be the only predicted top-six team that might now be picked below Utah, Stanford or Oregon State.
Here’s a look at how the teams predicted to finish in the top half of the conference have done in nonconference play heading into Thursday’s openers. Teams are listed in the order that they were picked in the Pac-12’s official preseason official poll. The NET, Kenpom and Sagarin rankings are included.
(The bottom six teams — Oregon State, UCLA, Utah, Stanford, Washington State and Cal — were reviewed in the first part of this preview.)
1. Oregon
Record: 11-2
NET: 11
Kenpom: 10
Sagarin: 5
Best win: 71-70 (OT) at Michigan on Dec. 7
Worst loss: 78-74 to North Carolina at Nassau, Bahamas, on Nov. 29.
Storyline: The Ducks lost eight players from last season and couldn’t get Dante enrolled for the fall semester. Oh, well. Losing to Gonzaga only in overtime, while beating Memphis, Houston, Seton Hall and Michigan, Oregon vaulted into the AP Top 5 anyway. The Ducks’ biggest stumble might have been a failure to comfortably beat Texas Southern in a pre-Christmas game at Matthew Knight Arena.
Good number: 41.7 — Oregon’s 3-point shooting percentage, third best nationally.
Bad number: 32.4 — Percent of missed shots Oregon’s opponents rebound, the 47th-worst defensive rebounding percentage in Division I.
Projection: Dana Altman’s 11th-hour recruiting prowess and the veteran leadership of point guard Payton Pritchard have made the Ducks once again the team to beat in the Pac-12. While Oregon’s strength has been on the perimeter so far, there’s still plenty of size and athleticism inside, with Dante joining a group that includes five-star freshman C.J. Walker, imposing big man Francis Okoro and UNLV transfer Shakur Juiston.
He said it: “We took a big step ... in the right direction after Texas Southern and after the holidays. But going on the road for the conference openers (Oregon will open at Colorado and Utah) has been really hard on us. We are going to have to play a lot better.” — Altman, after Oregon beat Alabama State 95-59 on Sunday in Eugene (via goducks.com)
2. Colorado
Record: 11-2
NET rating: 28
Kenpom rating: 35
Sagarin: 28
Best win: 78-76 over Dayton at Chicago on Dec. 21
Worst loss: 79-76 at home to Northern Iowa on Dec. 10
Storyline: The veteran and deep Buffs are stingy defensively but have struggled with turnovers during a somewhat inconsistent nonconference season, losing to Northern Iowa at home but beating Dayton at Chicago and Clemson in Las Vegas.
Good number: 18 — Colorado’s Kenpom ranking in defensive efficiency
Bad number: 45.7 — Colorado’s two-point shooting percentage, 72nd worst in country.
Projection: With by far the Pac-12’s most experience — but perhaps the lowest ceiling among the expected contenders — Colorado will need a head start if it is going to make a serious run at the conference title. CU opens with three games at home, starting with a showdown against Oregon on Thursday, while having to play five of its final seven away from its cozy mile-high home.
He said it: “The team that’s most consistent is going to win this league. It starts on Thursday, but I don’t want to put too much pressure on that game to our guys. … We’ll be ready to go on Thursday, and we’ll need to be, because Oregon is a good, good basketball team.” — Coach Tad Boyle, after Colorado beat Iona 99-54 on Sunday at Boulder (via cubuffs.com).
3. Washington
Washington forward Noah Dickerson (15) out rebounds Virginia Tech guard Ahmed Hill (13) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Dec. 15, 2018 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J. Virginia Tech won 73-61. (AP Photo/Corey Perrine)
Record: 10-3
NET: 40
Kenpom: 44
Sagarin: 46
Best win: 67-64 against Baylor at Anchorage, Alaska on Nov. 8.
Worst loss: 75-62 to Tennessee at Toronto on Nov. 16.
Storyline: Defending Pac-12 champs hardly look the same after losing four starters, and they even throw out a little man-to-man defense at times. But that’s not so bad when you pull in five-star bigs Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels — and get an NCAA waiver so Green can play right away.
Good number: 30 — Washington’s ranking in free-throw rate (free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted), indicating Huskies know how to get to the line.
Bad number: 20.5 — Percentage of Washington possessions that end with a turnover.
Projection: Other than Stewart, the Huskies’ young talent still struggles with consistency. But with two Pac-12 coach of the year awards over his first two seasons at Washington, Mike Hopkins is expected to figure it out.
He said it: “We’ve got to learn from this. We’re going to go back to (practice) and continue to work on our weaknesses, especially on finishing out games. Whenever we get a big lead we always allow the other team to get back into it. That’s something that we have to work on.” — Stewart, after Washington lost to Houston on Dec. 25 in the Diamond Head Classic final (via The Seattle Times).
4. Arizona
Arizona point guard Nico Mannion has suffered through a shooting slump and a back injury as a freshman.
Record: 10-3
NET: 20
Kenpom: 16
Sagarin: 26
Best win: 90-69 at home against Illinois on Nov. 10.
Worst loss: 70-67 to St. John’s at San Francisco on Dec. 21.
Storyline: The Wildcats are an extreme example of how high-level college basketball teams have to get it done these days — powered by potential one-and-done freshmen but surrounded by experienced role players. But relying on three top freshmen has its downsides, as evidenced in losses to Baylor and St. John’s.
Good number: 12 — Arizona’s rank in offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 111.7 points per 100 possessions.
Bad number: 280 — Arizona’s national rank in opponent free-throw rate (37.7), with opponents taking an average of 15.5 trips to the free-throw line per game.
Projection: No matter how talented they are, freshmen usually hit a wall at some point. Maybe Nico Mannion, who mostly hasn’t shot well since hurting his back on Nov. 29, and Zeke Nnaji, who has struggled to adjust to massive defensive attention inside, already cleared their hurdles. If so, the Wildcats will challenge for the league title.
He said it: “We’ve got some young guys and we got some experienced guys but it’s a new group overall. So we’ve got to keep learning from our losses for sure.” — Guard Max Hazzard, after the Wildcats lost to St. John’s on Dec. 21.
5. USC
Record: 11-2
NET: 65
Kenpom: 68
Sagarin: 66
Best win: 80-79 against TCU at Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, Texas, on Dec. 6.
Worst loss: 70-61 at home to Temple on Nov. 22.
Storyline: Like Arizona, the Trojans are working in eight new faces and finding themselves led by talented freshmen, especially big man Onyeka Okwongu. But they aren’t fully reliant on the new guys, getting significant help from senior post player Nick Rakocevic, the team’s second-leading scorer and rebounder, and sharpshooting senior guard Jonah Mathews.
Good number: 47.7 — USC’s field-goal percentage in its last five games.
Bad number: 66.5 — USC’s free-throw shooting percentage.
Projection: The Trojans might have the conference’s most imposing frontcourt and, considering their overall blend of talent and experience, it would hardly be a surprise to see them pull off a Top 4 finish.
He said it: “The freshmen are playing exceptionally well. We’re more fluid now, we all believe in the team. We need to keep our composure, keep our discipline and play together. If we do, we’re as good as any team in the Pac-12.” — Rakocevic, after USC beat Florida Gulf Coast on Sunday (via usctrojans.com).
6. Arizona State
Arizona State head coach Bobby Hurley during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2019, in Uncasville, Conn. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)
Record: 9-4
NET: 60
Kenpom: 87
Sagarin: 81
Best win: 80-67 over St. John’s at Uncasville, Connecticut, on Nov. 23.
Worst loss: 96-56 to Saint Mary’s at Talking Stick Arena on Dec. 18.
Storyline: After a lot of chest-thumping in the past two early seasons, ASU has had a quiet preseason this time.
Good number: 23.0 — Percent of possessions that opponents are turning the ball over against ASU, an average of 17.1 turnovers per game.
Bad number: 30.4 — ASU’s 3-point shooting percentage, 86th worst in Division I.
Projection: Even without all-conference defenders Zylan Cheatham and Luguentz Dort, ASU has put together a passable defense to keep it competitive except against Saint Mary’s, which hit 59.6 percent of its shots against the Sun Devils in Phoenix. That kind of slippage can’t happen in Pac-12 play if ASU is to challenge for a top four spot.
He said it: “We’ve been all over the place this nonconference so it was good to finish the nonconference like we did and hopefully that’ll give our guys some confidence. But 9-4 is fairly respectable based on who we played and where we traveled, and now we get to move on to the next chapter of the season.” — Coach Bobby Hurley, after ASU beat Texas Southern 98-81 on Saturday.
