When marquee Pac-12 programs Arizona, UCLA and Oregon struggled most of last season, that wasn’t the only reason the league wound up ranking just seventh in Kenpom’s conference ratings.
Another was the fact that Washington State won just 11 games and was ranked 207 in Kenpom, while California was even worse, winning only eight and finishing 241. Not surprisingly, both programs fired their coaches after those dreadful seasons.
This season, it’s nearly the opposite. UCLA is still struggling under new coach Mick Cronin but the new hires at WSU and Cal are already seeing some returns, helping the Pac-12’s improved image. The Cougars are 9-4 (and 143 in Kenpom) while Cal is 6-7 and 191 in Kenpom so far despite new coach Mark Fox’s massive rebuilding task.
Among the other three teams predicted to finish in the Pac-12’s lower half, Oregon State has occasionally displayed the kind of star power that could lift it into a conference contender, while Utah’s win over Kentucky last month reminded everyone again that the Utes have picked up five straight Pac-12 Tournament first-round byes.
Then there’s Stanford, which was a mild surprise at 11-1 before forgetting to show up in a 72-56 home loss to Kansas last Sunday.
Here’s a look at how the teams predicted to finish in the bottom half of the conference have done in nonconference play heading into Thursday’s opener. Teams are listed in the order that they were picked in the Pac-12’s official preseason official poll.
(The first six teams — Oregon, Colorado, Washington, Arizona, USC and ASU — will be reviewed later in the second part of this preview.)
7. Oregon State
Record: 10-2
NET: 76
Kenpom: 72
Sagarin: 86
Best win: 80-74 at home vs. Iowa State on Nov. 9
Worst loss: 64-49 at Texas A&M on Dec. 21
Storyline: Tres Tinkle is producing at a conference MVP level, but he likely won’t get the award if Beavers don’t challenge for the Pac-12 title.
Good number: 17.7 — Percent of opponents’ possessions that end in blocked shots, thanks largely to center Kylor Kelley, the nation’s shot-blocking percentage leader (Kelley blocks shots on 18.4 percent of opponent possessions when he’s on the floor).
Bad number: 27.1 — Percent of the time OSU rebounds its missed shots, the 202nd-best offensive rebounding percentage in Division I.
Projection: With an elite shot-blocker in Kelley, a prolific wing scorer in Stephen Thompson and the all-around skills of Tinkle, the Beavers should be challenging for a Top 4 spot in the Pac-12. But especially in the much-improved Pac-12 this season, they’ll need more help to get there. What a mostly weak nonconference schedule didn’t expose, a 15-point road loss at Texas A&M did.
He said it: “It’s the first time we’ve been on the road this year when we were down. So we faced some adversity and I’m disappointed with how we responded.” — OSU coach Wayne Tinkle, after OSU lost to Texas A&M on Dec. 21 (via the Associated Press)
8. UCLA
Record: 7-6
NET: 179
Kenpom: 127
Sagarin: 150
Best win: 77-61 at home vs UCSB on Nov. 10.
Worst loss: 77-74 at home to Cal State Fullerton on Dec. 28
Storyline: Bruins clearly weren’t ready for their big-boy nonconference schedule under new coach Mick Cronin, losing to BYU, Michigan State, North Carolina and Notre Dame, as well as Hofstra and Cal State-Fullerton, which hit 9 of 13 3s in the second half against the Bruins.
Good number: 36.4 — UCLA’s offensive rebounding percentage, 19th best nationally.
Bad number: 40.1 — 3-point shooting percentage UCLA’s Division I opponents have averaged, the ninth worst defensive 3-point percentage in the country.
Projection: Steve Alford was fired just before Pac-12 play began last season, after the Bruins lost to Liberty. It’s hard to say things look much better a year later, at least in the short run until Cronin gets more buy-in or more of his own players. Cronin’s hard-nosed approach and the sometimes-soft players he inherited aren’t meshing well so far.
He said it: “I apologize to our fans for our defensive effort once again. Sickening. Beyond sickening. Sickening at the highest level.” – Cronin, after UCLA lost to Cal State Fullerton on Dec. 28 (via Los Angeles Times).
9. Utah
Record: 9-3
NET: 62
Kenpom: 108
Sagarin: 77
Best win: 69-66 vs Kentucky at Las Vegas on Dec. 18
Worst loss: 65-61 vs Tulane at Conway, S.C., on Nov. 24
Storyline: Larry Krystkowiak is exceeding expectations once again with a band of mostly unknowns, led by Mesa product Timmy Allen.
Good number: 57.8 — Utah’s two-point shooting percentage, fourth-best nationally.
Bad number: 163 — Utah’s mediocre Kenpom rank in defensive efficiency.
Projection: The Utes have finished with one of the top four Pac-12 Tournament spots for five straight seasons. Count them out this time at your own risk.
He said it: “Everyone has a different perspective looking at our program … I’ve always thought that if anybody’s going to blow smoke up your a--, that’s not really worth listening to. The same person will try to bury you and that’s not worth listening to. Staying within our family is the most important thing.” – Krystkowiak, after Utah beat Kentucky on Dec. 18 (via Salt Lake Tribune)
10. Stanford
Record: 11-2
NET: 21
Kenpom: 57
Sagarin: 55
Best win: 73-54 vs Oklahoma at Kansas City on Nov. 25.
Worst loss: 72-56 at home to Kansas on Dec. 29.
Storyline: Two key freshmen — dynamic point guard Tyrell Terry and late-blooming forward Spencer Jones – have helped Stanford exceed its low expectations so far. But the Cardinal melted when given a chance to prove itself on the national stage, going scoreless for nearly the first eight minutes in its loss to Kansas and turning the ball over 19 times.
Good number: 19 — Stanford’s rank in Kenpom defensive efficiency.
Bad number: 21.9 — Percent of Stanford possessions that end in turnovers, the 59th worst mark in Division I.
Projection: Even at 11-2, Stanford hasn’t really proven that its 10th place projection is out of line, that early losses by KZ Okpala (NBA) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) still won’t hurt. But since the Cardinal doesn’t have to leave the state of California until February, it could still be a while to tell which way Stanford is really headed.
He said it: “I don’t think we’re going to be an offensive juggernaut but we have really good offensive players and once we crack that code to reduce our turnovers I think we’re going to be a really efficient offensive team.” — Haase, after Stanford lost to Kansas on Dec. 29 (via video posted on gostanford.com)
11. Washington State
Record: 9-4
NET: 127
Kenpom: 141
Sagarin: 142
Best win: 63-54 vs New Mexico State at Spokane on Dec. 7.
Worst loss: 85-77 at home to Omaha on Nov. 21.
Storyline: Led by one of the nation’s best relatively unknown players, CJ Elleby, the Cougars struggled early with a rash of minor injuries but enter Pac-12 play on a six-game winning streak.
Good number: 15.3 – Percent of WSU possessions that end in turnovers, the ninth best turnover percentage in Division I.
Bad number: 29.1 – WSU’s 3-point shooting percentage, the 49th worst nationally.
Projection: Analytics-minded new coach Kyle Smith used a long-term developmental approach to turn around programs at Columbia and San Francisco, but he’s already made short-term progress in Pullman. With a 9-4 record in nonconference play, the Cougars are already just two wins shy of their mark last season — when they beat the UA at McKale Center but went 4-14 in league play and 11-21 overall.
He said it: “We’re that team where we have to be nails defensively. We’ve got to block out. We’ve gotta go to the offensive boards. We’ve got to take care of the ball. … We’re not world beaters by any stretch yet. Hopefully we can just keep getting better.” — Smith, after WSU beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Dec. 29 (via video on wsucougars.com)
12. California
Record: 6-7
NET: 184
Kenpom: 191
Sagarin: 193
Best win: 69-63 at home vs Fresno State on Dec. 11
Worst loss: 71-52 at Santa Clara on Dec. 7.
Storyline: Mark Fox took over an eight-win team from Wyking Jones, saw three of the Bears’ top five scorers transfer out last spring… and then was handed a nonconference gantlet of five top 100 Kenpom teams (Duke, Texas, San Francisco, Saint Mary’s and Harvard). It’s no surprise they’ve lost seven of their past nine games.
Good number: 37.8 — Cal’s 3-point percentage
Bad number: 24.9 — Percentage of its missed shots Cal rebounds, the 256th-best offensive rebounding mark nationally.
Projection: Having run fast-paced teams that were successful at Nevada — and slower ones at Georgia that tried to compete with more talented teams in the SEC — Fox said before the season he wanted the Bears to run as fast as they could be successful. Well, right now, they’re running the nation’s 46th-slowest adjusted tempo so far. That might speak to where the Bears are at this point.
He said it: “There’s a lot to address. I knew that on Day 1. What we’ve really tried to do is make an investment in the right things and demand that they play the game the right way. … I think we’ve made a lot of progress there. There’s a lot of instinctive plays on the defensive end that we do not make, and we probably won’t make until we go through it and get some experience.” – Fox , after Cal lost to Harvard on Dec. 29 (via Cal Maven).
