How each Pac-12 team in the 'Bill Walton Nine' can burst bubble into NCAA Tournament

Oregon in need of a resume builder with Arizona in town

Before he worked the Arizona-USC game at McKale Center on Feb. 10, television analyst Bill Walton strolled by the Star’s seats to continue a conversation.

“Also,” Walton said, “nine Pac-12 teams should be in the tournament. Colorado. Utah. Arizona. ASU. UCLA. USC. Stanford. Oregon. And Washington.”

Nine?

On his bracketology update Monday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had two, only the UA and ASU. CBS’s Jerry Palm added USC and UCLA for a total of four.

But … nine?

“I’m not sure,” UA coach Sean Miller said last week. “My hope would be four or five. We had four in last year. A lot of people don’t realize that. We had three teams who were very high seeds and on a threshold of a Final Four. Oregon punched through, and because of the success of the four teams in the tournament, you forget there were eight teams who weren’t.”

Arizona’s two opponents this week, Oregon State and Oregon, are among those teams who aren’t supposed to be in the NCAA Tournament this time around. But even they still have hope, thanks in part to the fact that Arizona and ASU both represent the chance to pick up Quadrant 1 wins on their homecourts this weekend.

With an RPI of 89, Oregon could have an argument if it finishes the regular season strongly and goes deep into the Pac-12 Tournament, while OSU (169) at least has the knowledge that it has played competitively in almost every Pac-12 game this season, including a 62-53 loss at McKale Center on Jan. 11 in which the Beavers trailed by just a point with seven minutes left.

“Obviously, we know the only way it’s gonna happen is probably by winning the entire (Pac-12) Tournament,” OSU forward Tres Tinkle said Tuesday. “But we play every team close and if we can get some momentum in these last four games going into the Pac-12 Tournament, where we’ll be playing at a  neutral site, we’ll be able to reflect on what we need to get it done defensively, offensively, and playing with the passion that we need.

“We think we can make something happen especially with how up and down the Pac-12 is this year. There could be a lot of upsets.”

So, then … maybe 10 teams?

Well, no, of course not. Even if the Beavers or Ducks managed to work themselves in somehow, that likely means another Pac-12 team or two would be playing itself out, such as if OSU and Oregon stomp over Washington next week in Seattle, making the Huskies fall off the bubble.

But here’s a look at how the Walton’s World Nine could all make cases for themselves (in order of RPI):

ARIZONA (21-6 overall, 11-3 Pac-12, 4-2 Quadrant 1)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 17/14/22

Status: The Wildcats are fighting for a Top 4 NCAA Tournament seed, which assures geographic protection in the early rounds, and an outright Pac-12 conference title, which would mean they'd have early tipoff times for their first two Pac-12 tournament games.

Who’s left: At OSU (Thursday), at Oregon (Saturday), vs. Stanford (March 1), vs. Cal (March 3).

They’re in if: They show up. The Wildcats don’t have any more chances for a Quadrant 1 win in the regular season but if they win their regular season games and beat USC, UCLA, Washington or Utah in the Pac-12 Tournament they could improve their seeding. A regular-season championship would likely mean Arizona would not have to win the conference tournament to receive the best NCAA Tournament seeding in the Pac-12.

ASU (19-7, 7-7, 3-3)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 28/40/35

Status: The Sun Devils need to find a way off the dreaded 8/9 line, where the first-round winner must play a No. 1 seed to reach the Sweet 16. But they may be more likely to move down than up, considering their soft remaining schedule and the fact they will likely not receive a first-round Pac-12 Tournament bye.

Who’s left: At Oregon (Thursday), at OSU (Saturday), vs Cal (March 1), vs Stanford (March 3).

They’re in if: They don’t collapse in the regular season and lose in a first-round Pac-12 Tournament game.

USC (19-9, 10-5, 2-5)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 42/46/52

Status: The Trojans are firmly on the bubble, and the losses of Bennie Boatwright (knee) and De’Angelo Melton (suspension) will be held against them by the selection committee. But they’ll have a half-week bye before facing UCLA to keep retooling.

Who’s left: At Colorado (Wednesday), at Utah (Saturday), vs. UCLA (March 3).

They’re in if: They win at least three more games between the regular-season and Pac-12 Tournament.

UCLA (19-8, 10-5, 2-4)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 48/47/51

Status: The Bruins are similar in profile to their crosstown rivals, but have the momentum of six wins in their past seven games, including that 82-74 victory over UA that could come in handy on Selection Sunday.

Who’s left: at Utah (Thursday), at Colorado (Sunday), at USC (March 3).

They’re in if: They can win two of those three final road games and a game in the Pac-12 Tournament, possibly pushing Utah and/or Colorado out of the way.

WASHINGTON (18-9, 8-6, 4-3)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 49/93/95

Status: A home loss to Utah on Feb. 15 severely damaged what appeared to be a solid resume when the Huskies knocked off Arizona on Feb. 3 for their fourth straight win. But they still have a strong strength of schedule, and a good Quadrant 1 record that includes the home sweep of UA and ASU, plus that shocking Dec. 6 win over Kansas.

Who’s left: at Stanford (Thursday), at Cal (Saturday), vs OSU (March 1), vs Oregon (March 3)

They’re in if: They don’t stumble to Cal, OSU or Oregon, and reach the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals.

UTAH (17-9, 9-6, 3-6)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 50/52/60

Status: A sweep in Washington put the Utes near the NCAA Tournament bubble, but there’s still work to do. The good news for Utah is that it doesn't  have to leave their high-elevation home to do any of it until the Pac-12 Tournament.

Who’s left: vs UCLA (Thursday), vs USC (Saturday), vs Colorado (March 3).

They’re in if: The Utes win out at home and reach the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals.

COLORADO (15-12, 7-8, 3-5)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 77/101/114

Status: The Buffs really aren’t even near the bubble anymore, after getting swept in Washington last week, though they did sweep the Arizona schools just after New Year’s.

Who’s left: USC (Wednesday), vs UCLA (Sunday), at Utah (March 3)

They're in if: The Buffs repeat that four-wins-in-four-days surprise they pulled off in the 2012 Pac-12 Tournament.

OREGON (17-10, 7-7, 1-4)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 89/50/73

Status: Only one starter remains from the Ducks’ Final Four team, and their record is reflective of that roster turnover. But the Ducks have hope in the quality wins they could amass against the UA, ASU and Washington.

Who’s left: ASU (Thursday), Arizona (Saturday), at WSU (March 1), at Washington (March 3)

They’re in if: They win at least five more games that include Saturday’s showdown with Arizona.

STANFORD (14-13, 8-6, 2-7)

RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom: 93/90/94)

Status: Rawle Alkins played in only one of four games during a January stretch because of foot issues, and Stanford probably wishes that game wasn’t Jan. 20 at Maples Pavilion. Alkins had 13 points, seven rebounds and five assists while UA squeaked out a 73-71 win, keeping a much-needed quality win out of the Cardinal’s back pocket.

Who’s left: vs Washington (Thursday), vs WSU (Saturday), at Arizona (March 1), at ASU (March 3).

They’re in if: They win the Pac-12 Tournament.