Since Nico Mannion committed to Arizona in September 2018, the question was never if he would leave the Wildcats for the NBA draft after one season.
It was about how high in the NBA draft he would go.
That question remained a valid one Tuesday, when Mannion officially announced his departure after a freshman season in which he displayed both an unusually advanced command of the offense but also bouts of puzzling shooting and decision-making.
“I want to thank everyone who has truly helped me throughout my journey,” Mannion said in his statement. “You know who you are, including coach (Sean) Miller for giving me the opportunity to play in front of the best fans in the country. I’ll always be proud to be part of the Wildcat family!”
The second of three UA freshmen to announce their impending departures — only guard Josh Green has yet to address his publicly — Mannion wound up as the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer (14.0) points while averaging 5.3 assists and posting a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He shot only 39.2% overall, and just 32.7% from 3-point range overall, sandwiching back issues and a shooting slump with strong shooting displays both early and late in the season.
Mannion was at his best in the Thanksgiving week Wooden Legacy event, hitting a difficult running hook shot to beat Pepperdine at the buzzer in the opener and then putting up his best offensive performance of the season a day later against Penn, when he sprayed in 11 of 14 shots from all parts of the floor while scoring 24 points.
Mannion was named the Wooden Legacy MVP but, after suffering a back injury in the Penn game, shot just 3 for 11 in the UA’s championship win over Wake Forest.
The injury and/or a resulting lack of confidence appeared to affect Mannion into December, with him making just 3 of 20 shots (1 for 10 from 3) on Dec. 14 against Gonzaga, though he had 10 assists to just three turnovers in that Dec. 14 UA loss. Mannion also missed two key shots within the final 30 seconds of the UA’s Dec. 21 loss to St. John’s in San Francisco.
In Pac-12 play, Mannion shot 36.5% overall and 30.9% from 3, while his assist-to-turnover ratio dropped to 1-1.7 but he finished on a strong note.
Mannion averaged 21 points on 42.4% shooting in consecutive late-season games at UCLA and to Washington State at home, while finishing with 14 points, two assists and four steals in what turned out to be the Wildcats’ final game, a 77-70 first-round Pac-12 Tournament win over Washington on March 11.
Nico Mannion has the ability to change speeds and is an elite passer, suggesting a high ceiling as an NBA point guard. Mock NBA drafts have him going anywhere from 10th to 27th.
But even as he slumped slightly in midseason, it was clearer than ever that Mannion’s journey at Arizona would be a short one. In December, Georgetown’s James Akinjo announced he was transferring to Arizona, and Miller was asked on Jan. 7 about his interest in the point guard once the move became official.
“Certainly, we had an interest in him,” Miller said of Akinjo. “But especially with the need that we have, losing, you know — we’re going to lose Nico.”
NBA mock drafts were equally confident of Mannion’s departure. Most don’t name players until it at least appears near-certain they will declare for the next draft, but Mannion’s name stayed in everyone’s first round throughout the season.
Before he joined ESPN’s telecast of the Feb. 28 Arizona-USC game in Los Angeles, ESPN draft analyst Mike Schmitz told the Star that NBA scouts weren’t deterred by Mannion’s inconsistency because they had already seen him excel in several different settings elsewhere.
Mannion played briefly for the Italian senior men’s team in 2018; in 2019, he played in the McDonald’s All-American game and Nike Hoop Summit after leading Phoenix Pinnacle High School to a second straight Class 6A state championship.
“They have a familiarity with him,” Schmitz said. “Of course, he’s going to need to play better to (keep his draft stock high). He’s got to make more shots, he’s got to defend more. Hopefully he can do those things.”
Arizona guard Nico Mannion (1), left, and head coach Sean Miller await the decision on the placement of the inbounds pass late in the second half against Gonzaga at McKale Center, Tucson, Ariz., December 14, 2019.
Schmitz said Mannion is valued because of his ability to read defenses well, change speeds and make difficult passes in traffic.
“Mannion’s ability to pass off a live dribble allows him to pick defenses apart in space,” Schmitz wrote on Twitter last month. “Fits the ball into tight windows and threads the needle accurately. Off- the-dribble passing makes him dangerous when combined with his pull-up, change of pace.
“Once his pull-up starts falling consistently, Nico Mannion will be a tough cover in space as he can play off of the threat of his jumper with his natural change of pace.”
ESPN ranks Mannion the No. 14 best prospect overall, while HoopHype says his consensus mock draft spot is 16. Major mock drafts have him going anywhere between No. 10 and No. 27.
Here’s how some of them evaluate Mannion and where they project him going:
Sporting News (10): “Mannion is a high IQ offensive threat who won’t lose value in situations off the ball… His playmaking should excel in advantage situations, and the jumper is likely to fall at a higher clip than it did during his freshman season.”
CBS (17): “The way Mannion initiates offense and reads and manipulates defenses is the main reason he’ll be a lock for the first round. His basketball smarts are off the charts. He’s gone through a slump throughout most of February but is still in contention to be a lottery pick.”
Sports Illustrated (17): “Mannion and Arizona ended the season on rockier ground than expected, and his struggles have cast added doubt about his athleticism, ability to finish at the rim, and his capacity to guard in the NBA. He’s more likely a mid first-rounder than lottery pick as things stand, and with those shortcomings, some think Mannion might be better cut out as a winning backup than as a starter. There is still a lot to like: Mannion is inherently unselfish, impressively polished, and a better jump shooter than he was able to show. He’s also competitive to the point where you think he figures out a way to succeed.”
USA Today (17): “As the season progressed, Mannion’s confidence took a bit of a hit as he struggled on the court against tougher competition. But that is one reason why he might be a perfect fit for a team like the Celtics, who already have a star point guard in Kemba Walker.”
NBC Sports (22): “He’s not an elite athlete, but Mannion has good size for an NBA point guard and he has an extremely high basketball IQ. There may be a team that falls in love with his playmaking ability in the teens, but if not, Mannion would make a nice addition to a team in desperate need of affordable second team help.”
The Athletic (27): “His inability to get penetration consistently this year was a real problem for Arizona, and often led to its offense stagnating. … he’s likely to stick because of his feel for the game, but it’s hard for him to get all the way to the basket, and it’s tough for him to defend. Really, he’s going to have to hit 3-point shots at a high clip to end up playing in the NBA for a while.”
